That's up in the air at the moment. But the general idea is that if the Poles keep Lvov the Germans will keep Breslau.
So, in term of actual news that aren't just carry overs or equivalents OTL:
I. The electoral campaign in Spain hasn't gone to the Communist way. If they can't get more then 11% in 1945 I can't see them having a real shot at power anytime soon...
Had to do some diving into 1936 electoral results. PCE had gotten 2.99% of the vote. The associated Catalan party another 0.34%. Total 3.33%. I had them more than triple their electoral results, not unlike the Greek party under the same circumstances and in line with the reports that it had tripled its membership during the civil war.
II. And of course, things are already getting unpleasant in the Middle-East. I do get the sense that Abdulah, who was usually a fairly adept chess player, might be making of a blunder here. He hasn't gotten his hand on Syria yet, where some might be spooked by him going for a military solution and his ods of being accepted as king would diminish, and the Kurds might just wonder if he meant it when he recognized their independence. Moreover, I'd imagine that in the aftermath of ITTL WWII the West probably care more about the fate of the Middle-Eastern Christians then it generally did in OTL.
The Syrian president does not want Syria subsumed into Arabia. By the same token even OTL there was a pro-Abdullah party in Syria, it should be fairly larger TTL. As for the Kurds Abdullah obviously tries to cut off his losses and trusts into the well known antipathy between the Kurds and the Assyrians, Kurdish irregulars were playing a large role in the Assyrian genocide back in 1914-18 and also participated in the Shimela massacres in the 1930s.
I wonder what may possibly have changed, in the OTL US Military decision process about the final draw of Japanese cities to be targeted, for that ITTL, Kokura would have been the first to be targeted with the 'Little Boy', instead of Nagasaki, Niigata or even Hiroshima...
OTL Kokura was a target what saved it OTL was cloud cover on August 9th leading to the attack aiming Nagashaki instead. Why first an not second? Hiroshima's status as an embarkation port is worth even less TTL after the crushing defeat of the IJN at Leyte...
I think that while such percentage would get them a minority position if they would would manage to reach electoral or political agreements with the rest of the Left parties they would form a voting bloc with considerable influence. One that even with a parliamentarian majority. Ochoa's ruling coalition would have to consider or even depending on the Spanish Republic Constitution/electoral system for granting seat in the Spanish Cortes/Congress for the political parties, an key one...
The constitution is in the process of being rewritten. And one should remember that unlikely caudillo or not the man has won two civil wars...
Hopefully no assyrian massacres.
One can certainly hope that.
Very interesting that they went for Kokura instead. It was a secondary target OTL so I could see something simple changing it like poor conditions over Hiroshima on the 6th, having it replace Nagasaki on the 9th.
This apparently was what happened in the reverse on the 9th. And weather should not be EXACTLY the same after a few megatons of explosives, incendiaries et all failed to fall at exactly the same place.
Judging by what was written now at the Potsdam conference and during the Constantinople conference I believe Japan still has possession of the Kuril Islands and South Sakhalin as they weren’t invaded in august. Only Manchuria was. So Japan gets a big win for in the long run.
They got invaded on schedule. Compared to Manchuria though...
Spain is trying to put herself back on the right path. Hopefully it goes well for them.
The new border as I understand it leaves most of Lower Silesia to the Germans. That’s something like two and a half million people not being forced to move which will only be a good thing as Germany tries to deal with the massive influx of people they’re about to get thrown at them. Same for the Poles and Curzon line B
That's still in the air...
And then there’s the Assyrians. The smart choice would be to take the Autonomy offer. Because even if the Assyrians manage to fight off Abdullah they probably then just lose to the Kurds and have nowhere to run after spiting in the face of their other neighbor. If Abdullah is really only concerned with the oil than it will be a relatively hands off situation the Assyrians can enjoy. That’s a much better fate than OTL all things considered. Maybe the can even negotiate to gain custody of some other holy sites if Abdullah is feeling magnanimous like the Green Church in Iraq.
The smart choice may be that. I fairly much doubt the Assyrians would be willing to take it any more that the Israelis would be willing to take his offers of autonomy.
On that note, these 2.5 million Germans and Silesia's resources would make the GDR a more powerful force long-term.
If in the end East Germany to be gets them it also means West Germany does not get as many refugees.
The war's finally over and everything's already on fire, time for the cold war I suppose! All that's left is where the lines fall on the map...
Funny that you'd mention drawing the lines on the map... simultaneously with the cold war starting...
Ever since the voter group in question deserted the Liberals over the Black and Tans, Labour has been the recipient of the not inconsiderable Irish Catholic vote in the UK. They are actually rather less likely to renege on any agreement than the Churchill led government.
The Collins government would be best advised to seek plebiscite on a constituency by constituency basis.
They would be best advised... but by whom? Collins himself was no doubt a capable man but he died too young and too early in OTL to really know how he would develop.
me looking at Bulgaria
is this the prize to pay to not end up communist?
I must note that this, with the border on Plovdiv, was proposed seriously by some people. Just saying.
Could have been worse. Like Turkey.
Turkey will certainly be losing territory in the east to what becomes a Kurdish state. Now I'm not certain losing majority Kurdish territory that is dirt poor as of 1945 is that bad long term. I believe there is at least one paper by Bilgel and Karahasan claiming that sans the PKK conflict Turkish GDP would be 14% higher.
Turkey’s conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has had a deeply negative effect on the regions most affected by the violence. But what has the overall economic cost been to Turkey as a w…
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OTL, the Belgiums, Dutch and Poland (last two to some degree for a short while), plus small units of Norway and Denmark, contributed to the occupation of Germany, plus there was plans for the Brazilians to help in the US occupation of Austria - will other nations also contribute for the occupation of not only Germany and Austria, but also Japan?
Having a few Greeks and Spanish take part in the occupation of Germany would certainly make for some interesting propaganda... now I don't think Greece after demobilization can provide all too many troops.the remaining active army should be around 120,000 men or so.
At this point in ATL it would be fascinating to see if the fates of Prince Vĩnh San, Amin Al-Husseini, Louis Renault and others who either were killed or could have potentially been killed around this time are changed compared to OTL.
A few "where are they now" posts are in the plans as part of wrapping up the war.
Speaking of which was Raoul Wallenberg's fate changed compared to OTL?
Sweden declared war on Germany in August 24th, 1944. Swedish diplomats should had been kicked out of Axis countries, effectively just Germany and Hungary at this point.
With no IJN battleships to nuke, why do I have a feeling Katsuragi is the one to end up nuked at Bikini Atoll ITTL?
Pretty certain the Americans will find a battleship or two... all these standards getting decommissioned.
I wonder if Dragoumis will return to power after the Greek elections, i hope so.
He is a rather hale 67 years old and his family generally tended to reach old age, his elder sister Natalia lived to 101 dying in 1973 and his younger brother Philip to 90.
I am also curious what will the new UK government do about Cyprus. I think the most probable outcome would be increased self-governing and a referendum to take place in 5-10 years to approve or not the union with Greece. (with the UK retaining a large base in
Akrotiri but not in Dhekeleia ).
In OTL it did propose offering a constitution of shorts and a legislative council. TTL you still have a legislative council post 1931...
Also, that is a lot of UK battleships and I am sure some of them will be decomissioned! Is there any chance that Greece would be interested in purchasing one? Although with the Turkish Navy almost non-existent and the Italians not being enemies anymore, probably Greece would not need such a ship.
Greece does have a single modern battleship at the moment... which truth to tell may well be overkill already.
About as OTL? But not salvaged and returned to service as OTL?
Not certain about the second part but truth to tell it is irrelevant. Anything before Nelson and Rodney will be going to the scrapyard in short order.
Tbh I'm just hoping that at the very least the Warspite isn't scrapped like irl and kept as a museum ship, criminal that they did that irl
Well... why the proposals to do so failed OTL?
In fairness Warspite iOTL was heavily damaged and UK's economy was not in the best state so repairing a battleship just to use as a museum wouldn't be easy to justify.
If she was lightly damaged or undamaged it might have been justifiable (unlikely unfortunately, which very much would be a crime on the level of USS Enterprise CV-6). It will be nice if Britain is able to preserve at least one battleship. Perhaps one of the Anson class?
The modern battleships likely survive in one form or other to 1960. Post that.. it of course depends on what happens with the Soviet Navy as well. Which should be getting a significant fraction of the surviving Italian navy. Which at the moment has 3 Littorios, one of them half finished, 2 older battleships and a carrier...
I suppose you're right about the cost post-war but I still think the grand old lady of Jutland deserved a better end. However, I am now picturing the Belgrano getting taken out by an 18" salvo from a surviving Anson class BB and the mental picture of that might make it worth keeping one of those instead of Warspite
16 inch but that's a little tad been of overkill?
I do agree that something like this is the eventual result regarding North Ireland. The West Belfast question is an interesting one. I could see a lot of backroom negotiations happening pre election to keep it in North Ireland to avoid the headache for everyone involved, as a West Belfast enclave sounds like a real hassle for the people living there and both the Irish and British governments.
Who proposes a county by county referendum? Probably not Dublin, the opposition will be asking for Collins head of he does, equally not London, the Conservatives will be accusing Labour of treason. So whom? Would the Americans really want to get themselves involved?
Vaeius when have the Soviets ever been anything but a gentle and caring when it came to humanitarian efforts? They’re famous for gently forcing people onto caring trains straight to sunny Siberia after all.
Sarcasm aside I agree that even if it’s just Lower Silesia the humanitarian crisis should be more manageable and less deadly. I don’t think the Germans get to keep Pomerania like you show on the map, but If they do that even more people that they get to avoid dealing with getting displaced. And West Germany could he bigger but I have doubts.
I can see Kaliningrad getting given to Poland in exchange for Silesia. Since the Soviets have land in Anatolia and potentially Uskudar to deal with I can definitely see them deciding that’s one colonization project they don’t need to deal with currently.
Uskudar is in a situation not unlike Berlin. Would getting Channak mean Konigberg is left to Poland? After all the Soviets would still want a Baltic port that is not freezing...
I think in Yugoslavia, Stalin is waiting to see what he might get without spending anything. The napkin agreement gave him a percentage of the country and others and he's probably interested in seeing what he gets out of those agreement and how the Wallies expect him to follow through on his half of the napkin before making a move. That being said while I understand his choices I’m not sure why the men on the ground are so patient.
The war is over, Yugoslavia itself been left to the Yugoslavs... and how do they handle demobilization and uniting the two armies? Four months have passed since the end of the war in Europe. Keeping about 8-900,000 men under arms in peacetime isn't exactly practical.
