MWI 41032700 The ABC Talks

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
1941, 27 March

The talks were held with total secrecy in Washington, daily, between the 29th January to the 27th March, either in plenary session or broken down into relevant committees. Leading the British delegation was Rear Admiral Bellairs, while the American delegation was led by Rear Admiral Ghormly and Major General Embick

The war, from a British perspective, was looking quite bleak, and seemed to be growing so. What the British most wanted to secure from the United States was commitments to military cooperation, and a joint military strategy, with Germany First, at the top of its agenda. This, Churchill was most adamant about, and the CoS were in line with that.

On the American side, Roosevelt’s military commanders had already expressed their concerns to him about Germany becoming too powerful, and its defeat should be their primary goal, Britain’s efforts to have this point agreed was pushing at an opened door. However, with promises made during a presidential election late last year, commitments were hard to give, as Roosevelt walked the high wire between peaceful cooperation and embroiling the USA into another European war.

However, the talks were much more than just that, with an impressive detail over a whole range of subjects, all planned to either become the de facto arrangement, or an agreement on how things would be conducted, upon the United States entering the war. Much of the detail was worked out quite harmoniously, although at times things had become quite intense, indeed, bruising, an example being the Americans making it crystal clear they would not be moving ships to Singapore, to protect the British Empire.

The differences over the Far East and Singapore were never going to allow the talks to break down, both sides had too much political capital invested, the Americans had to keep Britain in the war, a German dominated Europe was unthinkable, and that meant securing the Atlantic lifeline, while the British were desperate to get the United States on board, and the Far East was, after all, just a risk of war, and one that Churchill was prepared to take.

The quandary the British were in; was that they desperately needed help in the North Atlantic, but at the same time, were looking for the US Navy to be the deterrent against Japan. The grievous merchant ship losses in the Atlantic were something Britain couldn’t sustain, and from the American view, this had to be addressed quite urgently, if Britain was to remain in the war. And not only were the losses due to submarines, mines and aircraft attack, climbing, with the French Atlantic ports in German hands, so German surface warships were now posing a problem. The expectation was things would get worse, the Germans had nearly made repairs to all the ships damaged in the Norwegian campaign, and would soon be commissioning two new Bismarck battleships along with another heavy cruiser.

On reflection, the British, if anything, overplayed their hand with regard to help in the North Atlantic and they had been given more US help than they might have anticipated. However, this left the Pacific fleet weaker, and with their refusal to move to Singapore, created a need for a substantial British force in the Far East. Indeed, the Americans were saying, by providing more capital ships of their own in the Atlantic, surely the British could now release battleships for the Far East. When the British planners explored this idea, the idea that emerged, was of a battlefleet based around Nelson and Rodney, supported by three of the R’s, and Force H, the battle cruiser Renown, and aircraft carrier Ark Royal. Assembling this force would take time however, firstly on when the US major naval units could be deployed, and on the repair and refit of the British ones.

Overall, the ABC talks had been a watershed for the British, a great success, with many far-reaching agreements, endorsing the principle of blockade, a maximum air offensive against Germany, the early elimination of Italy, and above all the principal of Germany First, but with regard to defence of the Far East it was a strategic failure. They lost the opportunity for greater co-operation with the United States in the Far East theatre, which would now devolve into almost a ‘look after your own patch’ philosophy, they had caused the US to weakened the Pacific fleet, and hence its deterrence effect on the Japanese, while on the other hand they had the promises of more than they could want, in the Atlantic, most of which they couldn’t use unless the United States entered the war. It was a mistake that would come back and bite them!
 
<tap> <tap> Is this thing on?
We've had a new post - about battleships - and it hasn't immediately triggered a three-page discussion thread?

I'm assuming that this is all more-or-less OTL. Interesting that the Americans are coordinating strategy so closely with the British while official US policy is still neutrality (The Lend-Lease Act only passed Congress about three months previously). Also the inevitable effects of the war you're currently fighting taken precedence over the one that is still only a future possibility.

What the British want is US escorts and merchant construction in the Atlantic and the US heavy ships in the Pacific facing Japan - but that probably doesn't fit with either what the USN has available or how they want to fight. The British also appear to be being optimistic about future ship availability - by December 1941 OTL, Ark Royal, Hood and Barham had all been sunk and Nelson was in drydock with torpedo damage.
 
The only way I could see the Naval asserts getting the release from the RN is if Crete goes very differently and the ships and the men aren't lost which means they don't have to rush ships to the Med and re-order the shipyards to repair the damage. Also if the North African Campaign goes radically different and Rommel eats a bullet or gets shot down amongst other things as well which may free up more British attention to the Far East.
 

Driftless

Donor
Also, there was the internal US debate in this time frame between Admiral Richardson and the White House about moving the heavies of the US Pacific fleet from the West Coast to Pearl Harbor. Richardson was so against the idea that he was replaced by Admiral Kimmel and the battleships were moved. That action did not end well, as we know....

My point is that even internal US Navy circles were not in agreement about fleet deployment in light of the deteriorating situation with Japan.

*edit* Richardson remained in FDR's doghouse till his retirement later in 1942. Nothing a boss hates worse than a subordinate being right and the boss being wrong.....
 
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Both Nelsons and the 3 R's is a formidable surface force but slow and with only one carrier, and considering the carrier aircraft the RN had at the time, unless you load it up with Seafires and Sea Hurricanes, they're vulnerable. But of course they don't know that. Also hopefully a decent cruiser force will be deployed rather than the odds and sods that were sent to ABDA. But, using the Australian, British and Dutch ships as a core of the fleet is also a good start. But ya don't want to base them at Singapore, you want to base them in Ceylon.
 
The only way I could see the Naval asserts getting the release from the RN is if Crete goes very differently and the ships and the men aren't lost which means they don't have to rush ships to the Med and re-order the shipyards to repair the damage. Also if the North African Campaign goes radically different and Rommel eats a bullet or gets shot down amongst other things as well which may free up more British attention to the Far East.
Yes Crete represents the biggest loss the RN suffered in WW2.

Losses included Cruisers York, Gloucester, Fiji, Calcutta and destroyers Kelly, Greyhound, Kashmir, Juno and Imperial were lost along with other ships damaged including Formidable, Warspite, Barham and several more destroyers.
 
Nothing good can be done from Ceylon though. That means giving up the whole Malay Barrier.

Ceylon's got the advantage of distance, and its not that far away, its several days steaming. Singapore can be used as a forwards base, but its too close to air threats. The Fleet can be based at Ceylon, it can sail in as needed and withdraw without emperilling the fleet.
 
The only way I could see the Naval asserts getting the release from the RN is if Crete goes very differently and the ships and the men aren't lost which means they don't have to rush ships to the Med and re-order the shipyards to repair the damage. Also if the North African Campaign goes radically different and Rommel eats a bullet or gets shot down amongst other things as well which may free up more British attention to the Far East.
There's Crete that could be 'less of a disaster' to help, but we're also on the eve of Matapan. Maybe the British will be able to bag Vittorio Veneto this time? That would release some pressure on the RN in the Med both in the short and long term. Without Vittorio Veneto the Regia Marina would be down to three capital ships (Giulio Cesare, Andrea Doria and Littorio) and I imagine the British would surely be more confident in their capacities to hold back the Italians with what they have.

Although X Fliegerkorps is also there and likely to tie-down lots of RN and RAF assets in the theater for a while... Really interested to see how this will play out!
 
There's Crete that could be 'less of a disaster' to help, but we're also on the eve of Matapan. Maybe the British will be able to bag Vittorio Veneto this time? That would release some pressure on the RN in the Med both in the short and long term. Without Vittorio Veneto the Regia Marina would be down to three capital ships (Giulio Cesare, Andrea Doria and Littorio) and I imagine the British would surely be more confident in their capacities to hold back the Italians with what they have.

Although X Fliegerkorps is also there and likely to tie-down lots of RN and RAF assets in the theater for a while... Really interested to see how this will play out!
I've got a POD for that

On the day of the Battle of Matapan a Greek Destroyer Squadron had transited the Corinth canal and eager to get in on the action sent a message to the British "Please send Orders" sadly by the time it reached anyone who could make a decision on what to do with them the message read "Please send oilers"

So the British thought that the Greeks had a destroyer Squadron that was out of fuel and ignored it

Instead have the order be properly transcribed and the British have the Greeks hare off after VV and they surprise it in a night action putting several fish into it and possibly mugging some of her escorts

On top of the loss of 3 CAs and 2 DDs its a bad day for the Italian Navy.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
I'm assuming that this is all more-or-less OTL. Interesting that the Americans are coordinating strategy so closely with the British while official US policy is still neutrality (The Lend-Lease Act only passed Congress about three months previously). Also the inevitable effects of the war you're currently fighting taken precedence over the one that is still only a future possibility.

Unless I've dropped a clanger, its all OTL
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
Also, there was the internal US debate in this time frame between Admiral Richardson and the White House about moving the heavies of the US Pacific fleet from the West Coast to Pearl Harbor. Richardson was so against the idea that he was replaced by Admiral Kimmel and the battleships were moved. That action did not end well, as we know....

My point is that even internal US Navy circles were not in agreement about fleet deployment in light of the deteriorating situation with Japan.

*edit* Richardson remained in FDR's doghouse till his retirement later in 1942. Nothing a boss hates worse than a subordinate being right and the boss being wrong.....
and
Adding somewhat to what you said Driftless the debate tended to get downright heated as well.
as well as
Nothing good can be done from Ceylon though. That means giving up the whole Malay Barrier.

The Admiralty struggled to get their heads around the idea that the Americans wouldn't base ships at Singapore, that idea died hard with them, while the US Navy was still grappling with a fast changing strategy driven by FDR. There's quite a good thread that questions their strategy here, https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=263143
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
The only way I could see the Naval asserts getting the release from the RN is if Crete goes very differently and the ships and the men aren't lost which means they don't have to rush ships to the Med and re-order the shipyards to repair the damage. Also if the North African Campaign goes radically different and Rommel eats a bullet or gets shot down amongst other things as well which may free up more British attention to the Far East.
and
Yes Crete represents the biggest loss the RN suffered in WW2.

Losses included Cruisers York, Gloucester, Fiji, Calcutta and destroyers Kelly, Greyhound, Kashmir, Juno and Imperial were lost along with other ships damaged including Formidable, Warspite, Barham and several more destroyers.
plus
There's Crete that could be 'less of a disaster' to help, but we're also on the eve of Matapan. Maybe the British will be able to bag Vittorio Veneto this time? That would release some pressure on the RN in the Med both in the short and long term. Without Vittorio Veneto the Regia Marina would be down to three capital ships (Giulio Cesare, Andrea Doria and Littorio) and I imagine the British would surely be more confident in their capacities to hold back the Italians with what they have.

Although X Fliegerkorps is also there and likely to tie-down lots of RN and RAF assets in the theater for a while... Really interested to see how this will play out!
and again
I've got a POD for that

On the day of the Battle of Matapan a Greek Destroyer Squadron had transited the Corinth canal and eager to get in on the action sent a message to the British "Please send Orders" sadly by the time it reached anyone who could make a decision on what to do with them the message read "Please send oilers"

So the British thought that the Greeks had a destroyer Squadron that was out of fuel and ignored it

Instead have the order be properly transcribed and the British have the Greeks hare off after VV and they surprise it in a night action putting several fish into it and possibly mugging some of her escorts

On top of the loss of 3 CAs and 2 DDs its a bad day for the Italian Navy.

Crete, ah yes, but was that something that could be predicted, certainly Norway gave warning, but without hindsight we wouldn't know such losses were coming , would we?
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
But ya don't want to base them at Singapore, you want to base them in Ceylon.
and
Nothing good can be done from Ceylon though. That means giving up the whole Malay Barrier.
and again
Ceylon's got the advantage of distance, and its not that far away, its several days steaming. Singapore can be used as a forwards base, but its too close to air threats. The Fleet can be based at Ceylon, it can sail in as needed and withdraw without emperilling the fleet.
Yes, Ceylon or Singapore, that is the question. I think it was Singapore first, that was where they were asking the US to base its ships, but as things in the Far East developed, and the Malaya defences, especially the RAF, didn't, so the Lordships looked more to Ceylon. As a deterrence, maybe the fleet looked good on paper, but as 1941 unfolded, especially in the Med, and ship vulnerability to air attack was more highlighted, and losses mounted, so their Lordships became more cautious. The fleet composition degenerated, only the R's could be assigned, and there was real concern about their vulnerabilities. Even when Force Z arrived in Singapore, Phillips kept Revenge back in the Indian Ocean.
 
Ceylon's got the advantage of distance, and its not that far away, its several days steaming.
Ceylon is 2,500 km away from Singapore. That's too far to react to an attack in any useful timeframe.
Singapore can be used as a forwards base, but its too close to air threats.
Singapore is about 1,000 km from Indochina, which is the nearest base for air treats.

Meanwhile, the Mediterranean fleet is based in Alexandria, which is only 500 km from Italian bases in the Dodecanese.
 
The Rs have a problem in that at full fleet speed, due to the lack of condensers, they have 3 days of fresh water for the steam turbines before they have to slow right down

Great for dominating the North Sea or Med - but as was shown during the Indian Ocean Raid where the fleet sortied on the expectation of a Japanese attack - unfortunately a couple of days early as the Japanese were delayed by several days and the fleet had to return to the Addu atoll (Port T) - a liability where longer distances were concerned

The British had a 'condenser' ship that could have supported them but it arrived too late and when the Japanese were detected on the 4th April the Rs or 'slow fleet' could not set out until the 5th

Singapore would have better facilities to support such a fleet and is closer to the action - and has an AFD (admiralty floating dock) - No IX

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There is an alternative to both Singapore and Ceylon - Darwin. Established as a "back up" Fleet Base in 1939, while she lacked many of the established facilities, she didn't lack oil or ammunition. It was the reason why the Japanese attacked it in February 1942. You wouldn't want as a long term base but as a secondary one it would adequate.
 
I've got a POD for that

On the day of the Battle of Matapan a Greek Destroyer Squadron had transited the Corinth canal and eager to get in on the action sent a message to the British "Please send Orders" sadly by the time it reached anyone who could make a decision on what to do with them the message read "Please send oilers"

So the British thought that the Greeks had a destroyer Squadron that was out of fuel and ignored it

Instead have the order be properly transcribed and the British have the Greeks hare off after VV and they surprise it in a night action putting several fish into it and possibly mugging some of her escorts

On top of the loss of 3 CAs and 2 DDs its a bad day for the Italian Navy.
Oh boy, I did not know this one.
Certainly the Greek Navy finishing an Italian battleship would be a PR disaster of an unprecedented magnitude. Eyes would roll in Berlin, heck probably in Allies capitals as well.
In Rome... well
 
What about Surabaya?

In particular, as long as the DEI agreed (and it's likely they would), what was the capacity of the naval base to host additional ships? That could mean RN, USN, but also pulling in commitments from RAN, RCN and RNZN?
 
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