Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

Two things:

1 - I love a good "Party X gets rocked at the polls, lots of recriminations and finger pointing follows."

2 - My current timeline is dealing with 80s corporate rading, deregulated stock trading and greed-is-good culture so it is at the front of my mind. I'm curious as to how much of that culture gets butterflied away with no Reagan and the GOP.
 
a technocratic-themed Republican Party is a logical and interesting pathway for the Republican Party to go through.
 
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"we must represent more than just the rejection of the new social settlement and the New Deal - we must present a positive, forward-thinking agenda that includes and impresses Americans of all faiths, creeds, races, and classes."​
This language seems very out of character for Buckley. I have great difficulty imagining him this conciliatory.
 
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I see we're almost to the point where, IOTL, John Hinckley tried to assassinate President Reagan. Will he try to take out Carey soon? That's assuming Hinckley wasn't already mentioned earlier...
 
I see we're almost to the point where, IOTL, John Hinckley tried to assassinate President Reagan. Will he try to take out Carey soon? That's assuming Hinckley wasn't already mentioned earlier...
I wonder if it will be successful this time around. Regan nearly died during the attempt.
 
So, the moderate/liberal wing of the GOP is ascending to power?
I don't know that I'd quite put it that way, more just that the Religious Right isn't really forming as IOTL so the conservative flank of the GOP is channeled into different set of impulses and policy priorities. (My thinking here is that what voters care about, whether conservative or liberal, is a policy response to issues of the day either tangible or theoretical, so what you're seeing here is conservatives caring about a different set of issues than the ones that Falwell, Schlafly et al brought to the fore)
Two things:

1 - I love a good "Party X gets rocked at the polls, lots of recriminations and finger pointing follows."

2 - My current timeline is dealing with 80s corporate rading, deregulated stock trading and greed-is-good culture so it is at the front of my mind. I'm curious as to how much of that culture gets butterflied away with no Reagan and the GOP.
For (2), I'd say probably a fair bit, though the push for deregulation did start in the mid-1970s after all so from a policy standpoint you probably see a softer lander, if you will, even if a lot of the policy responses are similar. But the corporate raider culture is probably much diminished.
a technocratic-themed Republican Party is a logical and interesting pathway for the Republican Party to go through.
Conservative technocracy sounds weird to our 2023 ears but yeah that's one way to think about it!
This language seems very out of character for Buckley. I have great difficulty imagining him this conciliatory.
Mea culpa that I've studiously avoided reading anything of Buckley's over the years, so if I failed to capture his voice properly, that's why...

(I've read his son's "Thank you for Smoking" but that's just because I really like that movie)
 
I don't know that I'd quite put it that way, more just that the Religious Right isn't really forming as IOTL so the conservative flank of the GOP is channeled into different set of impulses and policy priorities. (My thinking here is that what voters care about, whether conservative or liberal, is a policy response to issues of the day either tangible or theoretical, so what you're seeing here is conservatives caring about a different set of issues than the ones that Falwell, Schlafly et al brought to the fore)
Conservative technocracy sounds weird to our 2023 ears but yeah that's one way to think about it!
the Republican Party is going to be a more cautious and less-ambitious version of itself IRL. Unfortunately thats going to make it take more work to rally the conservative base to organize for and back them in elections. I can see there being more serious sentiment among conservatives questioning about whether the Republican Party is actually an effective opponent to new deal liberals. Regardless of its flaws the religious right is arguably the republican parties most reliable organizer and main activist group. Them losing steam is a huge blow especially when it comes to state and local elections.
 
Pit Viper
Pit Viper

As late spring arrived and summer beckoned, Washington's attention turned to special elections to fill a number of open House seats in the aftermath of Carey's staffing his Cabinet, and the Democrats did fairly well. They held, narrowly, Tom Foley's right-trending seat in Eastern Washington, though it would finally flip Republican in the 1982 midterms, and in Maryland the widower of the late Gladys Spellman, who had slipped into a coma shortly before the election in 1980, won a seven-way primary (including defeating Steny Hoyer, the Lieutenant Governor of the State) before comfortably winning the seat itself. The only result to go south was in Arizona; the 2nd stood empty thanks to Udall's appointment to the Interior Department and the race between Jim McNulty and Jim Kolbe turned heated for the seat anchored by booming Tucson and the Sonoran Desert along the Mexican border. Udall, while certainly no "Pinto Democrat," had been a good fit for his native seat but McNulty came across awkwardly and Kolbe won with a surprisingly decisive six-point margin in a state that had effectively split her results in 1980. Two out of three wasn't bad, and DC Democrats largely chalked the loss up to McNulty's poor candidacy and anticipated a significantly redrawn Arizona map in 1982 that would likely afford Kolbe a safe seat anchored exclusively in the right-trending, suburban-heavy Tucson area. [1]

One reason why Democrats remained optimistic after the special elections went through was that the debate over healthcare reform had only just begun to bubble up, with Ted Kennedy pushing for televised hearings. While the debate would turn somewhat more acrimonious in the fall as it intensified and a target of January or February of 1982 was circled for passing "Teddycare," in whatever form it took, it provided Americans a unique look at the machinery of Congress, for the idea of using C-SPAN to televise committee hearings and floor debates was fairly novel at that time. Though a number of Northeastern Democratic Congressmen were swept up in a corruption sting nicknamed "Abscam" due to the FBI posing as Arab sheiks to hand out bribes, the fact that the majority of those ensnared were from New Jersey seemed to simply be par for the course, and though there were plenty of jokes on late night television it didn't seem to have any particular impact on general perceptions of the party as a whole. [2] But the big news of the summer that gave the Carey White House a spring in its step heading into what promised to be a fall that would be much tougher than the debate around the ESA was not domestic, but rather stemmed from Panama - Operation Pit Viper.

One of the great regrets of Gerald Ford had been that he had never captured either Omar Torrijos or Manuel Noriega following Huele a Quemado and the intervention in Panama that by mid-1981 had claimed seven hundred American lives even as the country was mostly pacified and the Canal back up and running at the start of the year in full, a remarkable engineering feat that was a huge credit to the resources and expertise the United States threw at it. Still, guerilla hit-and-run attacks against both the US and post-Torrijos Panamanian government had plagued the country for three years now, and to many poorer Panamanians, Torrijos remained a populist and nationalist Robin Hood figure, and to the increasingly revolutionary Latin American left he was approaching Fidel Castro's status as secular socialist saint.

That he was captured not in Panama but rather El Salvador in a Delta Force operation codenamed Pit Viper was something of a PR coup for the Americans, then, as was the fact that he was caught with both gold bullion and suitcases of cash totaling together close to four million dollars - quite the man of the people. A brief firefight that saw six of his bodyguards killed ended with Torrijos in handcuffs at an airport near San Salvador where the US had to fend off Salvadoran security forces and rebels fighting in tandem to free him, and "Flight O" was forced to land in Jamaica to refuel as there were rumors that Cuban operatives would have attempted to shoot the plane down upon approach to Guantanamo with surface-to-air missiles on Castro's orders rather than allow Torrijos to stand trial in the United States (it should be said that these rumors ought to be taken with a grain of salt, considering how cautious and tactical Castro generally was about when and how he poked the bear).

While Noriega [3] remained at large, the intellectual and spiritual leader of the great late 1970s left-wing revolt against American influence in the region arrived in Miami on July 28th, 1981, and was handed over the FBI to stand trial on international terrorism and money laundering charges. The Carey administration made a great show, spearheaded by Attorney General Byron White, of the fact that it regarded Torrijos primarily as a criminal rather than as an enemy combatant, and that he would be treated as such and that "the wheels of justice turn slowly, but they grind very fine, and we will see justice done." It was hard to find many people in America who were not excited about Torrijos' capture; Pit Viper was applauded just as loudly by the New Left in Congress as it was by the New Right.

That was not the case in Latin America, of course. For many, the capture of Torrijos - and the circumstances in which it happened - deflated their energies, while others had a newfound, steeled resolve. It was already the case that the epicenter of anti-imperialist, anti-American violence in the region was shifting south and east out of Panama, Nicaragua and El Salvador and into Colombia, where the FARC and ELN movements had substantially increased their activities throughout late 1980 and into 1981, more than tripling the number of attacks carried out - primarily hit-and-run shootings of National Police officers, violent bank robberies and hostage situations, and kidnappings of prominent Colombians, especially the children of wealthy businessmen or powerful politicians. The FARC and Communists had together formed a new unified movement, the Union Patriotica, headed by Jaime Pardo Leal, a name that would soon be very well known both in Bogota and Washington. The Ford administration had perhaps prematurely drawn down its military presence in Colombia with relative peace in Panama, and now revolutionary cadres growing in power in both Colombia and Venezuela could transit the border at will to and from jungle training camps and hideouts. It became apparent, too, that Noriega was somewhere among them, and Cuban advisors were in the trans-Andean bush of both states. The insurgency in Latin America had not ended, it had simply entered a new stage...

[1] Tucson, like Phoenix, is basically just a giant suburb in the desert after all
[2] Sorry, Garden Staters!
[3] For being a central figure in a very minor conflict (my professor of military history at UW, an active Colonel in the US Army, quipped that Operation Just Cause is referred to inside the armed forces as Operation "Just 'Cuz"), its interesting how many movies in the late 1980s and early 1990s had very explicit Noriega stand-ins and how he rose in American popular culture. Die Hard 2 and License to Kill in particular come to mind
 
Random question, but how is the Libertarian Party faring under Ford and Carey?
Good q. I hadn't really given it much thought, because I don't know much about the history of the Libertarian Party. One of the Kochs probably still runs on that ticket with Ed Clark, or maybe Ron Paul, seeing as he's not in Congress at the time, bites the bullet and does it eight years early. Reagan winning the nomination after the Nixon/Ford years probably puts a cap on Libertarian numbers since people attracted to that party for economic reasons find his small-government platform appealing, but his coziness with Falwell, Schlafly et al maybe repels those who are attracted to its socially laissez-faire outlook.
 
Love the new chapter. The Panama part of this TL is one of my favourite aspects, glad to see it still being referenced.
Thank you! Appreciate that. I know the whole “LatAm on Fire” aspect got set aside for a bit to focus on the very different 1980 but as the TL’s pace speeds up and we get into the meat of the 80s that corner of the world will get much more attention again
 
Interesting to see Kolbe get in a different way this time! And the elimination of Hoyer is really interesting, definitely makes sense though!

I'll hold my hand up and say that I'm not the best expert on Panama or the incidents surrounding it, hence my silence thus far. Have to say that it's interesting to see some of this stuff ending up benefitting Carey at this moment! But of course, I can hear the warning sirens going off. Get the feeling that Carey's going to get a proper big test of his new foreign policy soon!
 
he was caught with both gold bullion and suitcases of cash totaling together close to four million dollars - quite the man of the people
Looks like the PRD will have to find a new guy to push apologia for, then (though without the late 1980's to shred his reputation that may very well be fucking Noriega... ugh). Although in fairness I don't think the party existed until 1979 IOTL, which IIRC was after Ford's intervention.
Who was it that became the US-propped Panamanian dictator? I recall something about that guy still being in power in 2004.
 
Interesting to see Kolbe get in a different way this time! And the elimination of Hoyer is really interesting, definitely makes sense though!

I'll hold my hand up and say that I'm not the best expert on Panama or the incidents surrounding it, hence my silence thus far. Have to say that it's interesting to see some of this stuff ending up benefitting Carey at this moment! But of course, I can hear the warning sirens going off. Get the feeling that Carey's going to get a proper big test of his new foreign policy soon!
Kolbe seemed to fit the bill coming from that corner of AZ anyways and Hoyer’s Gov candidate winning out in ‘78 takes him off the board. I know who wins WA-5 in 1982 (he’s still in elective office today IOTL) but didn’t want to get in the weeds for a special


Looks like the PRD will have to find a new guy to push apologia for, then (though without the late 1980's to shred his reputation that may very well be fucking Noriega... ugh). Although in fairness I don't think the party existed until 1979 IOTL, which IIRC was after Ford's intervention.
Who was it that became the US-propped Panamanian dictator? I recall something about that guy still being in power in 2004.
Cant say I know too much about post-1978 Panama, unfortunately, though with its central part in this TL I probably should
 
Kolbe seemed to fit the bill coming from that corner of AZ anyways and Hoyer’s Gov candidate winning out in ‘78 takes him off the board. I know who wins WA-5 in 1982 (he’s still in elective office today IOTL) but didn’t want to get in the weeds for a special
Denny Heck? Best I can do based on the clues.
 
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