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timelines:arhotf_health

A Revised History of the Future : Notes on Health and Medicine


What's the status on drug liberalization, as of 2080?

As of 2080, it is legal to possess and use Marijuana in 31 states, but only legal to buy/sell in 19 states. Those states that allow selling require a permit from the state government, but only 5 states require a prescription to buy. It is illegal to move marijuana across state or national lines, and it is also illegal to import it from abroad - doing so gets you in trouble with the ATF.


What's the status of traditional smoking? Have any countries enacted tobacco prohibition? Are e-cigarettes more popular?

Hm… I hadn't thought much about tobacco, to be honest. However, based on what's happened so far, I'd say e-cigarettes grew in popularity as a “healthy” alternative to tobacco for decades, before hitting a peak around 2030. The drop-off comes mainly due to the cost of replacing organic lungs with prosthetics, or a cloned duplicate, falling to the point where average middle-class Americans, Europeans, Indians, and Chinese could afford it, leading to a resurgence in the popularity of traditional tobacco.

There are probably some places that have banned tobacco entirely, but I can't think of where that would be off hand. By 2080, both tobacco and e-cigarettes are still around and common.


What's the average life span by 2080?

The average life expectancy at birth worldwide is about 88 years as of 2080. In the developed world, it can be as high as 105 years. In the developing world, the average has risen to 81 years - another benefit of Issac Nsungu's rule, which as I noted in an earlier post has risen the HDI of central Africa pretty significantly since 2060.


Is a Suspended Animation possible by the 2080s? Or what is possible in the medicinal/cryonics/revival field?

Yes, I believe suspended animation/cryonics exists by 2080s, although it's a technological advancement I haven't addressed. By the 2090s, it's primarily used as a “last resort” for seriously ill or injured people who need an emergency organ transplant or prosthetic but may not live long enough to get it. There remains a possibility of brain damage caused by the procedure, but there's a less than 5% chance of that. Long term suspended animation has had mixed results in test animals (much higher chance the subjects will get serious brain damage), but doctors believe it may be possible to put people in suspended animation almost indefinitely (so long as they remain observed and under care).


Are any diseases wiped out/cured? AIDS, rinderpest, (types of) cancer, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease?

Yes! By 2090, the following diseases have been wiped out: Rinderpest (2011, OTL), Polio (2021), Dracunculiasis (2022), Lymphatic filariasis (2034), Rubella (2047), and Measles (2066). Along with these, a number of cancers have been rendered either easily treatable thanks to advancements in biotech and prosthetics. Unfortunately, efforts by the World Health Organization to continue the mass extinction of disease was more or less halted by the 2070s Depression and the Equatorial War in the 2080s. As of 2090, Malaria and HIV are expected to be wiped out somewhere in the 2110s.

Cures for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's have been developed (in the 2070s), but have not become widely accessible.


Has any new “panic” disease appeared? Not an apocalyptic one but generally: Any new AIDS, H5N1, H1N1, SARS,…?

I'd say the closest thing to that was the Loma Plata Flu. It was the worst pandemic of the 21st Century, created a mass panic and helped cause the Depression in the 2070s. Between 2068 and 2071, it killed over 3,916,000 people. I'm sure there may have been others, but if there were I didn't discuss them.


What would a case of Loma Plata be? Would I get a severe flu or diarrhea or what would symptoms of Loma Plata be? What is the cause of death in a Loma Plata case?

Symptoms would at first seem like a severe case of influenza…only, it would continue to worsen. Deaths were caused by a cytokine storm. It was very similar to the Spanish Flu, only the virus was of the H3N2 variety (like the Asian Flu). It had a mortality rate of 23.1% and hit the worst in South America (it was discovered in Paraguay on November 17, 2068), Africa, and Asia (20% of all fatalities were reported in India).


Whatever happened to health care in the US? I assume that the insurance industry did not permit single-payer health care, but was the pressure on them enough that they eventually were overridden?

Basically, what ends up happening is that Healthcare gets devolved to the States, so every state has a single-payer system for that State but there's no national single-payer system. Ultimately, America proves to be just too big to make it work on a national scale, but every state eventually works out a way to do it at home. As a result, you have two-tier healthcare: you have access to the single-payer system at home, or you can buy higher-end healthcare coverage from an insurance company.

No idea when this transition happens, though. Sometime in the middle of the century, probably.


What is the world population in 2100?

8.2 billion (8,158,688,101, specifically) as of 1 January 2100. The world's population peaked around 9.5 billion in the 2060s, but due to rising standards of living, the LP Flu, the the Depression, the wars in Africa, and the instability/wars in the Middle East/Central Asia, the population globally fell by 1.3 billion over the century's last 35 years. As of 2100, though, the population seems to be levelling off.

So:

Earth: 8.2 billion The Moon: 41 Mars: 12 (non-permanent) Space, overall: 950 +/-50 (non-permanent)


See Also

timelines/arhotf_health.txt · Last modified: 2016/06/04 20:10 by petike