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alternate_history:principles_of_geopolitical_forecasting

Principles of Geopolitical Forecasting

These are some principles we came up with for forecasting the future. Take note of the word “forecast” meaning that it is not perfect or accurate. Just like weather forecasting, you have a chance of rain and maybe even snow. In these situations you are dictating the actions of countries that it's leaders are not even born yet. These rules if aheared to will give a future which is neither optimistic nor pessimistic, but a pragmatic future.


Jasen777's outline on the principles:

1.) All future alliances are based on complimentary needs, then followed by similar needs.

2.) Technological advancement has infinite possibilities only hindered by man.

3.) Man does not inherently desire change and will resist to the best of his ability unless there is an irreversible event.

4.) Political leaders are selfish and will look after their own needs first, followed by the needs of their closest stakeholders and finally the general public.

5.) The majority of technology will first have a military application before being released to the public.

6.) Every solution causes a problem, there will always be an implication no matter what.

Here are boredatwork's additions:

7.) Your personal and political views are not laws of nature or of history.

8.) Just because you find something to be untenable, doesn't mean the rest of humanity agrees.

9.) The 'story' part of history is deceptive, once humanity is involved, there is no narrative, no grand design. Trying to impose one will only confuse and delude.

10.) Folks will kill for almost anything, they will willingly die for only a very few things.

11.) Everyone thinks that they are invincible until proven otherwise.

LordMoogi addendum:

12.) Trends. If the world seems to be heading in one direction, it is common for writers to assume that it will continue to do so forever. This has been proven wrong many times over the course of history. The current political climate will not last forever. What seems like an inevitable outcome today will be a passing fad tomorrow.

Corbell Mark IV addendum:

13.) Nations will act according to their nature, not their interests.

Ahura's Mazda addendum:

14.) With a few exceptions, regions were there has been a powerful state/civilization which later collapsed, you won't see another one…

wormyguy addendum:

15.) Massive worldwide political shifts take decades, if not centuries, to complete, and always carry different goals at the end than at the start.


Feel free to agree or disagree, to add or subtract. These are basically rules to bottleneck projections of the future and prevent diversity and unrealistic events.


See Also

alternate_history/principles_of_geopolitical_forecasting.txt · Last modified: 2019/03/29 15:13 (external edit)