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alternate_history:fh_cliches [2020/02/07 21:55] – Updating to new link format eofpialternate_history:fh_cliches [2023/02/25 10:17] (current) – Updating Commonwealth entry transparent_blue
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 === Ameriwank === === Ameriwank ===
-  * **What it is:** One example of this is in the sense of the United States suddenly deciding to annex Mexico etc.  Another is the US having an absurdly dominant position in warfare - quite an accomplishment when one considers that the US is already the world's sole superpower. It may be helpful to consider a historical analogy - if someone in 2002 wrote an "Ameriwank" invasion of Iraq, it would have involved a simultaneous four-way war with Iran, Syria, and North Korea as well, the US would have won (probably helped by the surprise unveiling of five or six next-generation military technologies) +  * **What it is:** One example of this is in the sense of the United States suddenly deciding to annex Mexico etc.  Another is the US having an absurdly dominant position in warfare - quite an accomplishment when one considers that the US is already the world's sole superpower. It may be helpful to consider a historical analogy - if someone in 2002 wrote an "Ameriwank" invasion of Iraq, it would have involved a simultaneous four-way war with Iran, Syria, and North Korea as well, with the US mopping up all four ways, probably helped by the surprise unveiling of five or six next-generation military technologies. 
-  * **Why it won't happen:** Ameriwank scenarios generally involve technological superiority being the answer to all or at least most problems, and completely ignoring any horrible prolonged guerilla wars. They also require the US to have more of a technological advantage than it currently does (even though one might call today an unprecedented "grace period" between the collapse of the USSR and the rise of the new economies in China, India, etc).+  * **Why it won't happen:** Ameriwank scenarios generally involve technological superiority being the answer to all or at least most problems, and completely ignoring any horrible prolonged guerilla wars. They also require the US to have more of a technological advantage than it currently does (even though one might call today an unprecedented "grace period" between the collapse of the USSR and the rise of the new economies in China, India, etc.).
   * **Current progress:** The USA hasn't gained significant territory in almost a century. The most recent territorial changes include giving independence to the Marshall Islands and Micronesia (1986), giving independence to Palau (1994), ceding the Panama Canal Zone to Panama (1999) and ceding some Texan islands to Mexico (2009). Hardly a wank.   * **Current progress:** The USA hasn't gained significant territory in almost a century. The most recent territorial changes include giving independence to the Marshall Islands and Micronesia (1986), giving independence to Palau (1994), ceding the Panama Canal Zone to Panama (1999) and ceding some Texan islands to Mexico (2009). Hardly a wank.
  
 === America Collapse === === America Collapse ===
   * **What it is:** Just the complete opposite of Ameriwank is the collapse of the good old USA. Usually this is done by the middle of the 21st century. Common nations made from a disintegrated USA are the Republic of California, Republic of Texas, New England, Dixieland and Pacifica (a.k.a. Cascadia). It is interesting to note that in many cases, Canada also joins the secessionism, typically starting with Quebec. Seconds afterwards, the rest of Canada falls apart, creating the Maritimes, Nunavut and some kind of Greater Alberta.   * **What it is:** Just the complete opposite of Ameriwank is the collapse of the good old USA. Usually this is done by the middle of the 21st century. Common nations made from a disintegrated USA are the Republic of California, Republic of Texas, New England, Dixieland and Pacifica (a.k.a. Cascadia). It is interesting to note that in many cases, Canada also joins the secessionism, typically starting with Quebec. Seconds afterwards, the rest of Canada falls apart, creating the Maritimes, Nunavut and some kind of Greater Alberta.
-  * **Why it won't happen:** The States that have independence parties are small and draw little support. Not to mention that secession is completely and utterly illegal.+  * **Why it won't happen:** State independence parties are small and draw little support. Not to mention that secession is completely and utterly illegal.
   * **Current progress:** The peak of secession movements was a petition on the We The People website to allow Texas to peacefully secede. It gained over 100,000 signatures, meeting the threshold for a White House response. It unsurprisingly amounted to "lol no" and everyone went home.   * **Current progress:** The peak of secession movements was a petition on the We The People website to allow Texas to peacefully secede. It gained over 100,000 signatures, meeting the threshold for a White House response. It unsurprisingly amounted to "lol no" and everyone went home.
  
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   * **Also known as:** **Chinawank** or **Sinowank**   * **Also known as:** **Chinawank** or **Sinowank**
   * **What it is:** China always seems to be just on the verge of becoming the next superpower. It usually also conquers Siberia despite its close alliance with Russia.    * **What it is:** China always seems to be just on the verge of becoming the next superpower. It usually also conquers Siberia despite its close alliance with Russia. 
-  * **Why it won't happen:** It relies almost entirely on outdated Soviet equipment, doesn't possess a blue water navy, has no interest in colonialism and appears committed to purely economic empire-building. The word "superpower" is overused, but was originally coined to refer to countries capable of such massive power projection over the entire planet that they could defeat the second rank powers even on or near their home turf.  This replaced the era of the "great powers" who, even in the case of Victorian Britain, were not capable of dominating other developed countries on their home turf.  The US is a superpower not just because of nuclear weapons but because its air force, navy, and worldwide network of alliances and military bases allow it to deploy the full power of its military to most parts of the world.  Thanks to Xi Jinping's massive strategic change to gain military allies and bases overseas, China gained... just a small 300-person naval support base in Djibouti, which, while a step in the way to gaining such capability, is still just one small base+  * **Why it won't happen:** It relies almost entirely on outdated Soviet equipment, doesn't possess a blue water navy, has no interest in colonialism and appears committed to purely economic empire-building. The word "superpower" is overused, but was originally coined to refer to countries capable of such massive power projection over the entire planet that they could defeat the second rank powers even on or near their home turf.  This replaced the era of the "great powers" who, even in the case of Victorian Britain, were not capable of dominating other developed countries on their home turf.  The US is a superpower not just because of nuclear weapons but because its air force, navy, and worldwide network of alliances and military bases allow it to deploy the full power of its military to most parts of the world.  
-  * **Current progress:** From the foundation of the PRC until 1 August 2017, the number of its overseas bases was zero. While, as mentioned above, they opened up one base, and [[https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/10/10/china-is-most-likely-to-open-future-military-bases-in-these-3-countries/#36501d934006|are considering turning their existing Chinese-run ports in the Indian ocean into more naval bases]], it's still the beginner's stage of overseas power projection.+  * **Current progress:** From the foundation of the PRC until 1 August 2017, the number of its overseas bases was zero. Thanks to Xi Jinping's massive strategic change to gain military allies and bases overseas, China gained... just a small 300-person naval support base in Djibouti, which, while a step in the way to gaining such capability, is still just one small base. While they [[https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/10/10/china-is-most-likely-to-open-future-military-bases-in-these-3-countries/#36501d934006|are considering turning their existing Chinese-run ports in the Indian ocean into more naval bases]], it's still the beginner's stage of overseas power projection.
  
 ===The United Evil Caliphate of Wherever It Is=== ===The United Evil Caliphate of Wherever It Is===
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   * **What it is:** All the Muslim states suddenly decide to form one big united caliphate dedicated solely to the destruction of the Western world. A lite version is a Pan-Arab confederation which often includes Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, despite them not being Arab.   * **What it is:** All the Muslim states suddenly decide to form one big united caliphate dedicated solely to the destruction of the Western world. A lite version is a Pan-Arab confederation which often includes Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, despite them not being Arab.
   * **Why it won't happen:** Few people are aware of the nuances of the Greater Middle East aside from scary brown people yelling "Death to America!" on the news. They currently possess wildly varied political systems, they commonly distrust each other more than they distrust the West, and there is a huge religious divide between Sunni and Shiites. For example, Israel and Turkey have traditionally been friendly, but this has been strained by the Israelis sending covert aid to the Kurds.  Since the start of the Iraq war, (secular Sunni) Turkey and (theocratic Shi'ite) Iran have found a common interest in stopping militants in (secular Sunni) Kurdistan from fomenting violence in both of their countries.  In Afghanistan and Iraq, the US-supported governments are traditionally supported by (theocratic) Iran, whereas the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants gained most of their support within US allies (secular dictatorship) Pakistan and (religious monarchy) Saudi Arabia.   * **Why it won't happen:** Few people are aware of the nuances of the Greater Middle East aside from scary brown people yelling "Death to America!" on the news. They currently possess wildly varied political systems, they commonly distrust each other more than they distrust the West, and there is a huge religious divide between Sunni and Shiites. For example, Israel and Turkey have traditionally been friendly, but this has been strained by the Israelis sending covert aid to the Kurds.  Since the start of the Iraq war, (secular Sunni) Turkey and (theocratic Shi'ite) Iran have found a common interest in stopping militants in (secular Sunni) Kurdistan from fomenting violence in both of their countries.  In Afghanistan and Iraq, the US-supported governments are traditionally supported by (theocratic) Iran, whereas the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants gained most of their support within US allies (secular dictatorship) Pakistan and (religious monarchy) Saudi Arabia.
-  * **Current progress:** On June 9, 2014, the de facto independent Islamic State declared a caliphate, partially fulfilling this cliché. Still, it's Sunni-dominated and controls less than 1% of the total Muslim population.+  * **Current progress:** On June 9, 2014, the de facto independent Islamic State declared a caliphate, partially fulfilling this cliché. Still, it's Sunni-dominated and promptly withered away into irrelevance a few years later.
  
 ===Soviet Union 2.0=== ===Soviet Union 2.0===
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   * **What it is:** According to the esteemed Glenn Beck, the atheist Communazi Russkies are always looking for ways to spread their atheist Communazism and take a shit on America. Who are we to disagree?   * **What it is:** According to the esteemed Glenn Beck, the atheist Communazi Russkies are always looking for ways to spread their atheist Communazism and take a shit on America. Who are we to disagree?
   * **Why it won't happen:** Russia is struggling to regain control of Ukraine, its former territory. Until the Red Army is back in Vilnius, the USSR is yet to even //exist//, let alone spread any influence.   * **Why it won't happen:** Russia is struggling to regain control of Ukraine, its former territory. Until the Red Army is back in Vilnius, the USSR is yet to even //exist//, let alone spread any influence.
-  * **Current progress:** Partially fulfilled in 2014 when Crimea <del>was illegally annexed by</del> [[offtopic:running jokes|escaped from the ev000l homofascist regime of the devilic Ukraine and then neutrally and democratically chose to join their brothers in heavenly]] Russia.+  * **Current progress:** Partially fulfilled in 2014 when Crimea <del>was illegally annexed by</del> [[offtopic:running jokes|escaped from the ev000l homofascist regime of the devilic Ukraine and then neutrally and democratically chose to join their brothers in heavenly]] Russia. Then again in 2022 when Russia tried to take over the rest of Ukraine, only to be stuck in a never-ending meat-grinder that is churning up their men and equipment to no-one's benefit.
  
 ===Eurowank=== ===Eurowank===
   * **Also known as:** **The Fourth Reich**.   * **Also known as:** **The Fourth Reich**.
-  * **What it is:** The EU often ends up becoming a strongly integrated superpower (typically with a Fascist or Communist flavor) with a huge military. It also tends to stretch from Nuuk to Vladivostok, just because. Switzerland will always be independent though.+  * **What it is:** The EU often ends up becoming a strongly integrated superpower (typically with a Fascist or Communist flavor) with a huge military. It also tends to stretch from Nuuk to Vladivostok, just because. [[Uninvadable  super-duper Switzerland|Switzerland will always be independent]] though.
   * **Why it won't happen:** While not completely inconceivable, this seems increasingly less likely given recent events.  A huge military, in particular, would be unlikely except in response to a huge threat.  Japan is a wealthy and unified country and does not seek a military capable of deployment around the world, for example. As for enlargement, many remaining European countries explicitly do not wish to join the EU, or the EU explicitly does not wish to accommodate them.   * **Why it won't happen:** While not completely inconceivable, this seems increasingly less likely given recent events.  A huge military, in particular, would be unlikely except in response to a huge threat.  Japan is a wealthy and unified country and does not seek a military capable of deployment around the world, for example. As for enlargement, many remaining European countries explicitly do not wish to join the EU, or the EU explicitly does not wish to accommodate them.
   * **Current progress:** During the debt crisis, the EU sought financial advice from an 11 year old. That level of desperation does not equal superpower-dom.   * **Current progress:** During the debt crisis, the EU sought financial advice from an 11 year old. That level of desperation does not equal superpower-dom.
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     * 2160 - 7.68 billion     * 2160 - 7.68 billion
     * 2180 - 15.36 billion     * 2180 - 15.36 billion
-    * 2200 - 30.72 billion :D +    * 2200 - 30.72 billion :-
-  * **Current progress:** There is already a majority Muslim country in Europe (Albania). It is secular, part of NATO and strongly supported the War on Terror. As of 2015 they have yet to declare a caliphate and declare Jihad on Western civilisation.+  * **Current progress:** There is already a majority Muslim country in Europe (Albania). It is secular, part of NATO and strongly supported the War on Terror. As of 2023, they have yet to declare a caliphate and declare Jihad on Western civilization.
  
 ===Random Balkanization=== ===Random Balkanization===
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   * **What it is:** Another one of the "future predictions based on past nostalgia" clichés.    * **What it is:** Another one of the "future predictions based on past nostalgia" clichés. 
   * **Why it won't happen:** [[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1/post-10971032|To quote]] [[offtopic:Komnenos002]], "//This is my pet peeve on alternatehistory.com. I'm somewhat of an anglophile, but it seems like quite a few people will try and use the Commonwealth to resurrect some kind of British Empire. Any future timeline that has the Commonwealth become more important than the EU, USA, or Asia-Pacific region to its members is pretty much handwaving, they don't want a UK tied to Europe, so they arbitrarily bring the Commonwealth in to prop it up.//".   * **Why it won't happen:** [[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1/post-10971032|To quote]] [[offtopic:Komnenos002]], "//This is my pet peeve on alternatehistory.com. I'm somewhat of an anglophile, but it seems like quite a few people will try and use the Commonwealth to resurrect some kind of British Empire. Any future timeline that has the Commonwealth become more important than the EU, USA, or Asia-Pacific region to its members is pretty much handwaving, they don't want a UK tied to Europe, so they arbitrarily bring the Commonwealth in to prop it up.//".
-  * **Current progress:** The Commonwealth of Nations is alive and well for what it is (a glorified sporting organisation). But a resurgent British Empire in all but name, that would show the EU, NATO, etc. whatfor, is not only an implausibility, but an anachronism at this point. Note that the UK trades more with Ireland than the entire Commonwealth combined.+  * **Current progress:** The Commonwealth of Nations is alive and well for what it is (a glorified sporting organisation). But a resurgent British Empire in all but name, that would show the EU, NATO, etc. whatfor, is not only an implausibility, but an anachronism at this point. This cliché (and watered down versions like [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK|CANZUK]]) was invoked as a proposal among "serious" quarters as an alternative trading bloc to soften the impact of Brexit, only to be shot down by reality and basic scrutiny. After Brexit, the UK negotiated bilateral deals with individual countries around the world instead of trying to form or re-form any bloc, and other Commonwealth members are already firmly integrated into existing regional blocs with no desire to turn back the clock. Note that the UK trades more with Ireland than the entire Commonwealth combined, Canada trades more with the US than the entire Commonwealth combined, Australia trades more with China than the entire Commonwealth combined, and so on. 
 + 
 +=== Neo-Intermarium === 
 +  * **Also known as:** "[[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium|Intermarium]] 2.0"; "Evil/Morally Ambiguous Visegrad Group"; "Pilsudski's Wet Dream: 21st century edition", "Neo Warsaw Pact (with the evil Others, but without the Russkies), "Warsaw-Budapest Axis of Anti-Liberal Evilly Evil", "The Even Less Plausible Poor Man's Cousin of Putin's Eurasian Union", "Randomid Caliphate: Pierogi-eating Edition" 
 +  * **What it is:** Yet another one of the "future predictions based on past nostalgia" clichés, and one more ludicrous than most. The lamer, central European cousin to "CANZUK / British Empire 2.0", with even less thought put into plausibility and even more handwaving. Often little more than an excuse for "making future Europe interesting" by lazy map-makers. In cases of wish-fulfillment geopolitical nostalgia wank, this scenario posits the European Union reverts to its pre-2004 or even pre-Cold War borders, with the Visegrad Group countries and other newer EU members randomly leaving the EU and forming their own "eastern European" power block. This power block is usually either not fond of the "old EU" or is even openly hostile to it. In the more cartoonish versions of this cliché, the "Neo-Intermarium" is even arming itself and threatening the EU and Russia. This cliché seems to have gotten a proper start during the 2010s, but is already spent and hackneyed at the start of the 2020s. An interesting trait of this cliché is that you'll virtually never find it in works of central European authors writing FH timelines, whereas people who've never been to central and eastern Europe tend to treat this as utterly plausible (albeit with zero explanation how they arrived at that conclusion). ;-) 
 +  * **Why it won't happen:** Primarily economic reasons, though there are also military, cultural and social reasons (the latter example also including general civic apathy towards such intentional geopolitical upheavals). Tellingly, while the Visegrad Group exists and continues to cooperate, its individual members tend to have different economic agendas and often disagree on their future economic policies - not exactly a recipe for a monolithic-minded would-be rival to the EU. Ukraine is neither in NATO or the EU, but is very pro-EU since 2014 and has more active military experience than even Poland (out of necessity). Poland's economic miracle which started in earnest in the 1990s was only bolstered by the country entering the EU in 2004, with the EU being a major boon for Polish markets. Many Poles have economic, cultural and even familial ties with western Europe and aren't fond of the idea of creating a new Iron Curtain and antagonising western Europeans. Poland is also one of the most polarized of the Visegrad countries, and this alone prevents the vast majority of the population to give the government carte blanche to create a 21st version of Pilsudski's already over-optimistic and Poland-centric 1920s vision. Hungary's ruling nationalists are the most impudent towards the EU of all these countries, but aside from harassing freedom of the press at home, they are terrified of losing eurofunds (which the Hungarian economy has grown to depend on to //even exist//, due to //massive// and out-of-control government corruption). Hungary also has the most vulnerable economy, the most outdated and least flexible healthcare system (as evidence by the country's abysmal bumbling during the COVID-19 health crisis) and the fastest-aging population (a still unsolved decades-old problem, made worse by a mass exodus of younger people dissatisfied with small-minded, authoritarian-style government). Even the most euroskeptic country, Czechia, is not really stoked to leave the EU, particularly because they'd be shooting themselves in the foot by losing easy access to surrounding markets. Though the Polish and Hungarian nationalist governments' authoritarian tendencies since the early 2010s - pandering to ultra-conservative voters, limiting freedom of the press, trying to manipulate the judiciary and avoid prosecution for huge corruption cases - are worrying, their capability of outpacing the EU economically and militarily is, at best, a bad joke. Poland might have the money and Hungary might have the arrogant moxie, but only Poland has a somewhat substantial army, and even that has an aging inventory. Slovakia, Czechia, Romania and Ukraine are also not at all prone to fall back in line behind Poland and Hungary without questioning, given that they have some storied history with said two countries. (They are about as likely to cooperate with each other with absolute blind loyalty as the countries of the imagined Randomid Caliphate. :-D) Slovakia, Ukraine and Romania are also highly pro-EU. Despite the cliché idea that Poles would be the first to challenge the EU and create and lead their own block out of dissatisfaction, a [[https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/15/european-public-opinion-three-decades-after-the-fall-of-communism/|2019 in-depth international poll]] showed that Poles are actually the greatest supporters of the EU in the new EU states, at 84 %. The EU median is "only" 67 %. Despite a 52 % approval rate, notoriously EU-skeptic Czechia doesn't plan to leave the EU and benefits from the EU economically and legally as much as Poland. With the improved living standards in the Visegrad Group countries since 1989 and especially 2004, most citizens are actually very unlikely to severe connections with the EU - if not out of fondness, then at least out of simple pragmatism. Going at it completely alone, with an unfriendly EU to the west and Russia to the east would dissolve all of the achieved economic progress and modernization. Like in many FH clichés, there is also an uncomfortable and rather offensive level of "othering" in this cliché, by taking authoritarian and populist trends in some countries as "absolute proof" to tar an entire varied collection of countries with the same brush. This conveniently ignores that the general trends in these countries have been towards liberalisation and anti-corruption, and Polish and Hungarian nationalist populists have been losing their grip on the major cities of their countries since the late 2010s. The "Intermarium resurgent" cliché is about as realistic as early 1990s fears about a reunited Germany immediately reverting into a bunch of cartoonish goose-stepping fascists, hell-bent on hating and conquering the rest of Europe, or about as realistic as the CARICOM countries militarily conquering the entire Caribbean and Central America and then credibly threatening South American countries, the US and Canada, who back down, terrified. The outdated and cyberpunk-beloved future prediction cliché of Japan economically and then militarily bringing the world to its knees is another similar cliché that doesn't bother with any sort of sane analyses of social and economic plausibility. 
 +  * **Current progress:** The only progress in this so far is in occassional or semi-regular soundbites of greying and bored-looking members of Polish and Hungarian nationalist governments, who are all huff, but no puff  
  
 ---- ----
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   * **What it is:** Europe will automatically revert to it's pre-1914 animosities while America is not watching. Of course, it will be most of the time Germany. This includes of course stuff like [[offtopic:germany|Germany]] attacking [[offtopic:france|France]] to retake Alsace-Lorraine or, of course, invading [[offtopic:poland|Poland]]. There exists a small genre of FH novels from the 1990s (and, embarrassingly, also later in the 2000s) which portray an aggressive newly-unified Germany that wages war against it's neighbors. Back in 1990s, this is excusable because it is reflecting the fear and skepticism that many people had towards a German reunification. However they had no idea how things would really play out, and if you make up such a story in 2005 or 2010, it's decidedly not excusable... LOL   * **What it is:** Europe will automatically revert to it's pre-1914 animosities while America is not watching. Of course, it will be most of the time Germany. This includes of course stuff like [[offtopic:germany|Germany]] attacking [[offtopic:france|France]] to retake Alsace-Lorraine or, of course, invading [[offtopic:poland|Poland]]. There exists a small genre of FH novels from the 1990s (and, embarrassingly, also later in the 2000s) which portray an aggressive newly-unified Germany that wages war against it's neighbors. Back in 1990s, this is excusable because it is reflecting the fear and skepticism that many people had towards a German reunification. However they had no idea how things would really play out, and if you make up such a story in 2005 or 2010, it's decidedly not excusable... LOL
   * **Why it won't happen:** In the interconnected 21st century climate, Europeans channel their animosity through Eurovision votes and Polandball comics. Also, [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbuUW9i-mHs|here's]] a nice video summary of the matter.   * **Why it won't happen:** In the interconnected 21st century climate, Europeans channel their animosity through Eurovision votes and Polandball comics. Also, [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbuUW9i-mHs|here's]] a nice video summary of the matter.
-  * **Current progress:** Occurred somewhat in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine. No word on the fate of Alsace-Lorraine, though. In addition, Russia's efforts have proven ineffective in securing their interests and received worldwide diplomatic and legal condemnation. The only benefitting party were domestic propagandists towing the government line.+  * **Current progress:** Occurred somewhat in 2014 and 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. However, the war has (so far) not spread to the rest of Europe, so no word on the fate of Alsace-Lorraine. In addition, Russia's efforts have proven ineffective in securing their interests and received worldwide diplomatic and legal condemnation. The only benefitting party were domestic propagandists towing the government line.
  
 ===Chinese or Indonesian Invasion of Australia=== ===Chinese or Indonesian Invasion of Australia===
   * **What it is:** Involves either an expansionist China or Indonesia to invade Australia in conquest for //lebensraum//, or, in the case of the latter, in order to establish the **Boat People Caliphate**.   * **What it is:** Involves either an expansionist China or Indonesia to invade Australia in conquest for //lebensraum//, or, in the case of the latter, in order to establish the **Boat People Caliphate**.
-  * **Why it won't happen:** Apparently, people who think up this cliché just see Australia as a huge mass of land on the map that could easily host 800 million people, without even considering that it's a very dry and inhospitable continent that is <del>barely</del> not capable of supporting its present-day <del>20</del> <del>22</del> 23.5 (and counting) million inhabitants. +  * **Why it won't happen:** Apparently, people who think up this cliché just see Australia as a huge mass of land on the map that could easily host 800 million people, without even considering that it's a very dry and inhospitable continent that is <del>barely</del> not capable of supporting its present-day <del>20</del> <del>22</del> <del>23.5</del> 25.6 (and counting) million inhabitants. 
-  * **Current progress:** Anti-immigration conspiracy theories notwithstanding, nobody wants Australia. On the internet it has a reputation for horrifying wildlife such as the box jellyfish, crocodiles, baby-eating dingoes, giant spiders, giant snakes, giant spider-snakes, bogans, and Iggy Azalea.+  * **Current progress:** Anti-immigration conspiracy theories notwithstanding, nobody wants Australia and its horrifying wildlife.
  
 === Nuclear World War III === === Nuclear World War III ===
   * **What it is:** Global thermonuclear war of the type we narrowly avoided in the Cold War's circumstances, except for much sillier reasons. Someone just has to insult someone's mom and suddenly the world devolves into a a free-for-all. Often relates to super-China, Soviet Union 2.0, Israel or North Korea.   * **What it is:** Global thermonuclear war of the type we narrowly avoided in the Cold War's circumstances, except for much sillier reasons. Someone just has to insult someone's mom and suddenly the world devolves into a a free-for-all. Often relates to super-China, Soviet Union 2.0, Israel or North Korea.
-  * **Why it won't happen:** Unsurprisingly, this is in nobody's best interest. Mutually assured destruction, therefore avoidance of large wars.+  * **Why it won't happen:** Unsurprisingly, this is in nobody's best interest. Mutually assured destruction exists, therefore avoidance of large wars.
   * **Current progress:** The world's nuclear stockpiles are in fact being reduced.   * **Current progress:** The world's nuclear stockpiles are in fact being reduced.
  
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 ===GLAWWWWWWBUL WARRRMING=== ===GLAWWWWWWBUL WARRRMING===
-  * **What it is:** Forget the Maledives losing some land or Florida being flooded in a few decades; according to the FH subforum London will be submerged by next Tuesday. Typically used as an excuse for a superpower Canada when it gains all that unfrozen land. Not that we would blame anyone for a superpower Canada.+  * **What it is:** Forget the Maldives losing some land or Florida being flooded in a few decades; according to the FH subforum London will be submerged by next Tuesday. Typically used as an excuse for a superpower Canada when it gains all that unfrozen land. Not that we would blame anyone for a superpower Canada.
   * **Why it won't happen:** Sorry Al Gore, global warming won't happen that fast.   * **Why it won't happen:** Sorry Al Gore, global warming won't happen that fast.
   * **Current progress:** In 2014 (are you noticing a pattern here?) some holes blew up in the Siberian tundra, where the methane levels were 100 times higher than normal, possibly signalling the start of the methane clathrate runaway process. Oh wait, I was supposed to write why it //wouldn't// happen? Um, well, the idea of "global warming" is a liberal conspiracy to distract from real issues, overtax hard-working Americans, spread Sharia law and promote the gay agenda. Somehow.   * **Current progress:** In 2014 (are you noticing a pattern here?) some holes blew up in the Siberian tundra, where the methane levels were 100 times higher than normal, possibly signalling the start of the methane clathrate runaway process. Oh wait, I was supposed to write why it //wouldn't// happen? Um, well, the idea of "global warming" is a liberal conspiracy to distract from real issues, overtax hard-working Americans, spread Sharia law and promote the gay agenda. Somehow.
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   * **What it is:** When scientists talk about "nanotechnology" they are talking about glorified chemistry and biology - getting better at making customized molecules and assembling them into useful biological components, new materials, and so on.  Writers seem to think "robots scaled down to the size of an atom", as if you had a device that could do pretty much anything a handy intelligent construction robot could do, except that it's extremely tiny. This cliché is excusable to some degree, as few FH writers have an in-depth knowledge of the modern scientific community, and in fact it is universal to science fiction.   * **What it is:** When scientists talk about "nanotechnology" they are talking about glorified chemistry and biology - getting better at making customized molecules and assembling them into useful biological components, new materials, and so on.  Writers seem to think "robots scaled down to the size of an atom", as if you had a device that could do pretty much anything a handy intelligent construction robot could do, except that it's extremely tiny. This cliché is excusable to some degree, as few FH writers have an in-depth knowledge of the modern scientific community, and in fact it is universal to science fiction.
   * **Why it won't happen:** The easiest problem to point out is the power source.  A nanomachine must get its power from chemical reactions, and most likely do its work with chemical reactions - just like a bacterium, for example.  In the wild, independent "nanomachines" would probably not be much more capable than genetically engineered bacteria.   * **Why it won't happen:** The easiest problem to point out is the power source.  A nanomachine must get its power from chemical reactions, and most likely do its work with chemical reactions - just like a bacterium, for example.  In the wild, independent "nanomachines" would probably not be much more capable than genetically engineered bacteria.
-  * **Current progress:** If my latest iPhone can'last for more than a few hours of video, how is an atom-sized battery supposed to power anything for more than a microsecond?+  * **Current progress:** If my phone can barely last a few hours on videos, how is an atom-sized battery supposed to power anything for more than a microsecond?
  
 === Powered armor === === Powered armor ===
   * **What it is:** It seems that everyone's army in the future will have a design bureau run by Warhammer 40K nerds on crack.    * **What it is:** It seems that everyone's army in the future will have a design bureau run by Warhammer 40K nerds on crack. 
   * **Why it won't happen:** The trend over the past few centuries has been for armor to be sacrificed for agility, as hand weapons powerful enough to punch through almost any armor now exist.   * **Why it won't happen:** The trend over the past few centuries has been for armor to be sacrificed for agility, as hand weapons powerful enough to punch through almost any armor now exist.
-  * **Current progress:** The number of powered armor units in actual use (i.e. not just prototypes or demonstrations) in the world's militaries was precisely zero when this entry was first written in 2007. Since then, by 2019, it has increased to a grand total of ... still precisely zero. //[[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWXBug4B8BA|Gasaraki]]// [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4b-haPATmI|lied to us]] !+  * **Current progress:** The number of powered armor units in actual use (i.e. not just prototypes or demonstrations) in the world's militaries was precisely zero when this entry was first written in 2007. Since then, fifteen years later, it has increased to a grand total of ... still precisely zero. //[[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWXBug4B8BA|Gasaraki]]// [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4b-haPATmI|lied to us]] !
  
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 //**[[http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=76610|This is What Will Happen In The Future]]**// - [[offtopic:euio]]'s grand spoof TL, which tried to cram in as much of these clichés as possible. //**[[http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=76610|This is What Will Happen In The Future]]**// - [[offtopic:euio]]'s grand spoof TL, which tried to cram in as much of these clichés as possible.
  
-//**[[http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=9681970&postcount=8155|American Politics Reaches Its Logical Conclusion]]**// - [[offtopic:Thande]]'s satire of the Wikipedia election box subgenre and American politics.+//**[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1/post-9681970|American Politics Reaches Its Logical Conclusion]]**// - [[offtopic:Thande]]'s satire of the Wikipedia election box subgenre and American politics.
  
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alternate_history/fh_cliches.1581130557.txt.gz · Last modified: 2020/02/07 21:55 by eofpi

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