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| alternate_history:butterfly_effect [2019/03/29 15:13] – external edit 127.0.0.1 | alternate_history:butterfly_effect [2023/07/13 04:56] (current) – [Example timelines] max_sinister |
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| One important factor in that is that as soon as the Butterfly effect takes hold (varying on approach, see below), people now born will not be the same person as OTL (though they may have the same name), because even if the parents should still meet, the chance of the same sperm meeting the same egg is infinitesimal. This is also one of the points of controversy between the approaches, again see below. | One important factor in that is that as soon as the Butterfly effect takes hold (varying on approach, see below), people now born will not be the same person as OTL (though they may have the same name), because even if the parents should still meet, the chance of the same sperm meeting the same egg is infinitesimal. This is also one of the points of controversy between the approaches, again see below. |
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| The name derives from a famous example used in chaos theory: The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in Europe can later cause a devasting storm in China - as it will create a tiny wind current, which will go on to upset larger and larger wind movements all over the world. Six months later, the timeline where the butterfly flapped its wings has stormy weather, while the one where it didn't is sunny. Of course, the flap may also prevent a storm that otherwise would have happened... | The name derives from a famous example used in chaos theory: The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in Europe can later cause a devastating storm in China - as it will create a tiny wind current, which will go on to upset larger and larger wind movements all over the world. Six months later, the timeline where the butterfly flapped its wings has stormy weather, while the one where it didn't is sunny. Of course, the flap may also prevent a storm that otherwise would have happened... |
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| | The foundation of chaos theory was found by Edward Norton Lorenz in 1963 when, rather than starting a weather simulation at the beginning, he started it midway through using the numbers on a printout which were rounded to three figures after the decimal point. That small difference was enough to produce totally different results by the time the new program had reached the point where the old one ended. |
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| | Fiction has had similar ideas even earlier, though: [[https://www.scaryforkids.com/a-sound-of-thunder/|Ray Bradbury's story "A Sound of Thunder"]] predicted something like this as early as 1952, BTW. [[https://www.projekt-gutenberg.org/schnitzl/3warnung/3warnung.html|"Die dreifache Warnung" (1911) by Arthur Schnitzler]] was even quicker, though, as [[offtopic:Max Sinister|Max Sinister]] discovered. Interestingly, both stories use butterflies. |
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| ==== Example timelines ==== | ==== Example timelines ==== |
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| __Fundamentalist approach:__ **//[[timelines:Decades of Darkness]]//** | __Fundamentalist approach:__ **//[[timelines:How many sixes does Adolf Nazi have to roll]]?//** (well, that's the plan), Niall Ferguson's "Virtual History – Alternatives and Counterfactuals" |
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| | __Between fundamentalist and moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:Decades of Darkness]]//** |
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| __Moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:The Guns of the Tawantinsuya]]//** | __Moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:The Guns of the Tawantinsuya]]//** |
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| __Liberal approach:__ Most strikingly, the [[http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Mirror_universe|Mirror Universe]] of the //[[offtopic:Star Trek]]// franchise. | __Liberal approach:__ Most strikingly, the [[https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Mirror_universe|Mirror Universe]] of the //[[offtopic:Star Trek]]// franchise. |
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| ==== See Also ==== | ==== See Also ==== |
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| The **[[alternate_history:Citroen DS Incident]]**, the antithesis of the **Butterfly Effect**. | The **[[Citroen DS Incident]]**, the antithesis of the **Butterfly Effect**. |
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| **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/general-theory-of-alternate-history.419419/|General Theory of Alternate History]]** - A discussion by various AH.commers further ruminating on the topic. | **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/general-theory-of-alternate-history.419419/|General Theory of Alternate History]]** - A discussion by various AH.commers further ruminating on the topic. |
| **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-to-do-about-butterflies.422967/|What to do about butterflies ?]]** - Discussion on handling the butterfly effect narratively (via butterfly nets or similar solutions), in order to avoid things becoming too complex or too ambitious to cover by one author in a reasonable amount of time. | **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-to-do-about-butterflies.422967/|What to do about butterflies ?]]** - Discussion on handling the butterfly effect narratively (via butterfly nets or similar solutions), in order to avoid things becoming too complex or too ambitious to cover by one author in a reasonable amount of time. |
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| | **[[https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/how-many-sixes-does-adolf-nazi-have-to-roll.4919/page-2#post-1046054|About the Butterfly Effect]]** - Comment at [[offtopic:Sea Lion Press]] |
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| | **[[https://althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Alternative_History:Butterfly_Effect|The page about it]] on the English [[Althist Fandom wiki]]. ([[https://althistory.fandom.com/de/wiki/Schmetterlingseffekt|German version]])** |
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| **[[alternate history:alternate history|Alternate History Topics Section Main Directory]]** | **[[alternate history:alternate history|Alternate History Topics Section Main Directory]]** |
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