Zionism without the Holocaust Survivors

If the Holocaust had been completed, which is to say either Germany wins, or at least holds out for another six months or so and is consequently able to effectively finish off the Jewish population of continental Europe, what would that mean for the Zionist movement in Palestine?

I found this demographic information for Palestine on Wikipedia:
Year Jews Christians Muslims Total
1931 175 89 760 1,033
1947 630 143 1,181 1,970

There was a major population increase between 1931 and 1947 as you can see but I don't know how much of that was due to the war, the Christian and Islamic populations boomed too after all, and I would think many Jews would have fled there during the 30s.

So in a situation where there are no Holocaust survivors in Palestine would an Israeli state be likely to emerge? The Zionists would still presumably have a pipeline of arms coming from Vichy supporters in the Levant but the British government would have no more desire to give Palestine independence than OTL and without the visual proof of the death camps I would think there would be less sympathy for the Zionists.

Was the Zionist movement strong enough without the Holocaust survivors to succeed? How strong would it be if it did emerge?
 
It seems that there were about half a million Jews in the Balkans who would have survived if the Nazis won the war (Hungary and Bulgaria and maybe Romania).

Post-war Berlin would be putting a great deal of pressure on them to deport the Jewish population to Germany and I would think that those people would want to move to Israel just in case their governments stopped protecting them.

Would it be correct to assume that the Hungarian and Bulgarian governments would be happy to see them leave for Israel or would they share the same concerns that the Russians later did? Would Romania be likely to let them go? So far as I am aware most of the Romanian ships were sent to Palestine when they were concerned that the Allies would win (and Germany pressured them to stop) would Romania let them go once peace was established or would they seek to follow Germany's example? Or would these governments see encouraging their Jewish populations to leave as a more ethical solution than Germany's and one which could be of benefit as they seek to redevelop relations with the West and preserve their autonomy from the Germans?
 
Once I read that no (or almost no) Bulgarian Jews were killed, but checking WP tells me that they indeed sent several thousands from their occupied territory to Nazi Germany, where they were killed. Seems the former info only applied to Bulgaria proper.
 
Once I read that no (or almost no) Bulgarian Jews were killed, but checking WP tells me that they indeed sent several thousands from their occupied territory to Nazi Germany, where they were killed. Seems the former info only applied to Bulgaria proper.
Yeah, the Bulgarian justice minister managed to sway the Czar into protecting Jews who were Bulgarian citizens. Romania under Antonescu had a similar habit of not going after minorities in Romania proper as much, but using brutal pogroms and violence in conquered or occupied territories as a form of demographic engineering that would reinforce the area's "Romanian-ness" or "Bulgarian-ness". The way that the Axis minors approached the war seems a bit haphazard and contradictory.
 
If the Holocaust had been completed, which is to say either Germany wins, or at least holds out for another six months or so and is consequently able to effectively finish off the Jewish population of continental Europe, what would that mean for the Zionist movement in Palestine?

I found this demographic information for Palestine on Wikipedia:
Year Jews Christians Muslims Total
1931 175 89 760 1,033
1947 630 143 1,181 1,970

There was a major population increase between 1931 and 1947 as you can see but I don't know how much of that was due to the war, the Christian and Islamic populations boomed too after all, and I would think many Jews would have fled there during the 30s.

So in a situation where there are no Holocaust survivors in Palestine would an Israeli state be likely to emerge? The Zionists would still presumably have a pipeline of arms coming from Vichy supporters in the Levant but the British government would have no more desire to give Palestine independence than OTL and without the visual proof of the death camps I would think there would be less sympathy for the Zionists.

Was the Zionist movement strong enough without the Holocaust survivors to succeed? How strong would it be if it did emerge?
Without a large Ashkenazim population fleeing Europe to become Israel's demographic core, Sephardim and Mizrahim in the middle east and the French + British empires would become the main source of a potential Israeli population. Today the Israeli Jewish population is 50/50 Ashkenazim/Mizrahim, but in '48 I'm pretty sure that most Israeli Jews were Ashenazi refugees from Europe. I'm under the impression that most Mizrahi Jews only made aliyah after the war in '48 and later, fleeing the persecution of Arabs taking revenge on local Jews for their defeat.

I don't think Israel will take off without refugees from Europe. If conditions for Jews in Arab and Muslim countries still become intolerable post-independence, most Mizrahi Jews will probably just move to the West. OTL, France has Europe's largest Jewish population, but most of those people are the descendants of Mizrahi immigrants who left former French colonies and the Middle East after WW2.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
If Germany wins Zionism is toast. The British can't afford to deal with even more Arab insurrections, and that's assuming they manage to keep Palestine. If the Axis somehow got Palestine I think it would go to Italy or become part of an Axis-aligned Greater Syria/Pan-Arab State.
 
If Germany wins, eventually the Jews of any of their allies, to say nothing of countries with a German military presence, will be toast. In a "Germany wins" scenario", even with an independent UK and trans-Ural Russia and North Africa free of Germans/Italians the Germans have huge power to have countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania cough up the Jews. It may start with citizenship being withdrawn from Jews not resident in the country for 50 years and their descendants - they will be shipped off to Germany. Before Germany issues any military threats, these countries will be tightly tied to the German economy and frankly unable to fight Germany on this. Eventually protecting local Jews, who are already dealing with all sorts of legal and social antisemitism, is simply not going to be worth it. There may be efforts to have Jews removed to someplace like the USA outside the Nazi Mitteleuropa, but that is a weak reed. The Swiss and the Swedes, as neutrals, may be able to maintain their Jewish populations from Nazi predation.

One reason "the world" went along with the creation of Israel was the existence of a large mass of Jewish survivors of WWII who were in DP camps with no desire and/or ability to return to their prewar homes. The emigration of Jews of the Arab world to Israel was, to a large extent, dependent on their being an Israel to go to combined with the post Israeli independence push in many Arab countries to expel Jews (Iraq for example). Even if the UK postwar opens up immigration to Palestine fro Jews you won't get a flood of Mizrahi Jews, let alone Jews from the USA and the British Commonwealth.
 
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