Zionism and Possibility of Israel in a surviving Ottoman Empire

The POD is that the Ottomans stay neutral in WWI, and survives past World War I. Will the Jews ever still be able to emigrate to Palestine in large numbers. And what are the possibilities of Israel forming? I would imagine some sort of separatist movement that gains international sympathy, especially if WW2 and the Holocaust happens as OTL.
 
Likelihood of a surviving Ottoman Empire and of increasing importance due to oil development permitting large scale immigration which has been openly declared to be of a separatist intent? Zero.


Likelihood of Israel forming, assuming the Holocaust takes place and noting that OE neutrality in WWI means an earlier defeat for the Central Powers, also pretty much zero.


What would be the case for international sympathy? Germany repeated the Holocaust while the Allies did little to stop it so the moral argument for starting a brand new war for the sole purpose of stealing Ottoman territory is...what?
 

Deleted member 9338

Ottomans are often short of cash, could the British just buy the land?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Protest by Muslims against large scale Jewish relocation started almost immediately. The Ottomans would never officially declare Israel a Jewish homeland. Now there were significant Jewish populations in some cities controlled by the Ottomans, so some Jews would be allow to move to the Holy Land, especially if cash was paid to the Ottomans.

Without the Ottomans in WW1 and without the Holocaust, the area occupied by Belarus and the Greater New York City area are the closest they Jews have to a Jewish state. Without the Ottomans in WW1 and with a Holocaust like event, the USA is likely the main Jewish homeland, if one can count a few % of the population of a country as a homeland.
 
Or the Ottomans could encourage large-scale Jewish immigration from Eastern European pogroms to Palestine as a means of creating a foil to Arab dominance. The Jews would be reliant on the Ottomans for protection and legitimacy, and would therefore be loyal subjects. A reformed Ottoman Empire might end up with a "Autonomous District of Palestine" in modern Israel and Jordan, with laws enabling some expression of Jewish nationalism within the context of loyalty to the Ottoman Empire. They might model their policy on Cyrus the Great's policy of tolerance with loyalty. The same could and often was done for other minorities such as Arab Christians and Jews.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Ottomans are often short of cash, could the British just buy the land?
Ottomans wouldn't be short of cash once that sweet black gold started a-flowin'.

And why would the British buy the land :confused:

There is an almost 0% chance of a Zionist state forming in an OE survives TL.

And what's this "offsetting Arab influence?" The Turks had no problem with Arabs and the Arabs were fairly content under the Ottomans.

The Arab Revolt wasn't some sort of national awakening, it was land-grabbing and opportunistic treachery on the part of an Arabian clan. Prior to the British-backed revolt, Arab nationalism didn't have much influence at all.
 

And what's this "offsetting Arab influence?" The Turks had no problem with Arabs and the Arabs were fairly content under the Ottomans.

The Arab Revolt wasn't some sort of national awakening, it was land-grabbing and opportunistic treachery on the part of an Arabian clan. Prior to the British-backed revolt, Arab nationalism didn't have much influence at all.

Yes, that's true about the Arab Revolt. However, if you look at Ottoman policies throughout their empire, they often favoured minority groups as a way of foiling the region's majority, especially after the rise of nationalism. The Jews might be another group to do that with, as well as a means of getting much-needed investment capital. The Rothschilds and other Zionist financial backers might be willing to help the Ottomans out if they give on the Jewish question.
 

Old Airman

Banned
No one in this thread seem to be aware that "Jewish homeland" started to form under the Ottoman Empire IOTL. First (proto-) Zionist settlers (Bilu) started to immigrate in 1880s. By the 1914 there was about 50-70,000 Jews in Palestine, if my memory serves me well. Rishon Letzion, Tel Aviv and number of smaller towns were founded, as well as number of agricultural settlements, fruit plantations, wineries etc. Yishuv (Jewish Community) even started somewhat along the lines of (highly informal) program to build up a cadre of Ottoman-educated elite. Moshe Sharet went into Ottoman university, and I believe Ben Gurion too (or prepared to do so). So continuing existence of Ottoman rule ITTL is by no means an unbreakable barrier for the Jewish settlement movement.
IOTL Ottomans never had a consistent policy toward Zionist experiment. Having weak government and being busy in other areas (Yong Turks revolution, war with Italy, Balkan wars), they largely ignored the phenomenon. Dealing with Jews was mostly business of local (very corrupt) authorities. However, Young Turks (especially their Donmeh members, like Mehmet Cavit Bey) were big on transforming Islamic empire into a secular state which benefits from effort of it's citizens regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation. So I see absolutely no reason why Ottomans should automatically bow to fanatical illiterate sheikhs (utterly despised by Istambul IOTL) and kill Jewish settlement effort. So, it comes down to 2 questions:
1. How would Zionists get land?
2. How would Zionists get peoples to settle on the land?
It is very easy to get an answer for 1st questions. They'll buy the land. Every piece of dirt which belonged to Yishuv pre-1948 had been bought and paid for in cash. Jews might do it under Turks post-1914 as they did it under British post-1918 or Turks pre-1914 IOTL. It is the second question which would be a problem. IOTL most pre-1914 immigrants kept it's original (Russian, Austrian, German, French, Romanian) citizenship, using pretty relaxed pre-WWI Ottoman policy which allowed foreigners to live and do business there. Nobody guarantee that Ottomans would keep it this way in much more claustrophobic post-WWI world.
However, unlike British IOTL, Ottomans has a very solid economic and political reason to encourage Jewish immigration ITTL. They have to modernize and industrialize the Empire in order to survive. They need factories, mines, railways, oilfields, pipelines, widespread phone and telegraph network. And, to do all that, they need literate workforce to build and operate "stuff". And they don't have nearly enough literates within the Empire. So, for them an influx of literate and urban Jews, ready and willing to take industrial jobs, might be a gift from Heaven. Therefore, looking at whole situation from Istanbul, authority need to find a good balance between getting a workforce they desperately need and keeping illiterate Arabs quiet. I'm not saying that Turks will definitely tilt toward encouraging immigration, but they might. So, instead of less immigration pre-WWII we might see more ITTL comparing with OTL. I would not be surprised if some important components of nascent military-industrial complex of Ottoman Empire will spring up in Haifa or Tel-Aviv - Yaffo. Stuff like plane engine factory or armoured car assembling facility. Or airplane works. Why not? Where else within the Empire can you get enough workers who know how to operate XX-century machinery?
And now a million-dollar question. Would Israel come into existence ITTL? I honestly don't know. It will depend on general survivability of the Ottoman Empire. There's a good chance that decolonization process would kill it, but there's also a chance that it would be less of "colonial empire" and more of "multinational state" by that moment. However, if the Empire breaks up and it carried the "pro-emigration" policy I described above (i.e. if there're several hundred thousand Jews in the Palestine by that moment, I honestly don't know how would you prevent them from declaring Israel).
 
No one in this thread seem to be aware that "Jewish homeland" started to form under the Ottoman Empire IOTL. First (proto-) Zionist settlers (Bilu) started to immigrate in 1880s.
...Snip...
Good info.
So if the Ottoman Empire stays together, and Germany or some other Northern European states go badly anti-Semitic, we might see a few Jewish physicists running to the Empire instead of overseas.
Combined with all the money from Jewish businessmen and engineers, who would probably be a major influence in the oil industry, and the Jews would be a major force in schools, science and business.
Could we see an Ottoman nuclear power by the 50's or 60's?
 

Old Airman

Banned
So if the Ottoman Empire stays together, and Germany or some other Northern European states go badly anti-Semitic, we might see a few Jewish physicists running to the Empire instead of overseas.
Combined with all the money from Jewish businessmen and engineers, who would probably be a major influence in the oil industry, and the Jews would be a major force in schools, science and business.
Could we see an Ottoman nuclear power by the 50's or 60's?
Unlikely, it is too damn expensive. And, off the top of my head, they don't have good Uranium deposits, do they? Nuclear power stations from 1960's are possible, but bomb is unlikely. Remember, we're still talking about 3rd world (or barely emerging from 3rd world) country. Ottoman Empire needs all luck it could get (and then some) to be like OTL Brazil, considering the starting point...
 
Good info.
So if the Ottoman Empire stays together, and Germany or some other Northern European states go badly anti-Semitic, we might see a few Jewish physicists running to the Empire instead of overseas.
Combined with all the money from Jewish businessmen and engineers, who would probably be a major influence in the oil industry, and the Jews would be a major force in schools, science and business.
Could we see an Ottoman nuclear power by the 50's or 60's?

I would think later than that possibly 70's 80's.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Ottoman survival does not preclude continued Jewish settlement in Palestine, but it does astronomically decrease the possibilities of an independent Jewish state, or even a "Jewish vilayet," since that's obviously going to favor Jews over non-Jews.

The conflict will be between the radical Zionists and the secular/pro-Islamic Ottoman authorities.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
...

By the 1914 there was about 50-70,000 Jews in Palestine, ... So continuing existence of Ottoman rule ITTL is by no means an unbreakable barrier for the Jewish settlement movement.

...

It is very easy to get an answer for 1st questions. They'll buy the land. Every piece of dirt which belonged to Yishuv pre-1948 had been bought and paid for in cash. Jews might do it under Turks post-1914 as they did it under British post-1918 or Turks pre-1914 IOTL.

...

However, unlike British IOTL, Ottomans has a very solid economic and political reason to encourage Jewish immigration ITTL. They have to modernize and industrialize the Empire in order to survive. They need factories, mines, railways, oilfields, pipelines, widespread phone and telegraph network.

There is a big difference in 50,000 and 5,000,000 million. It is doubtful that the Ottomans would allow a 100 to one increase in the Jewish populations since Arab protest began immediately in 1919/1920. Now if you see a few hundred thousand people as a "Jewish Homeland", then yes that is possible. A few million, that is not going to happen barring something really bizarre.

Yes the Ottomans would sell some land to rich Jews, just there is no realistic way they would sell the majority of the good land to the Jews. A modest Jewish minority gives the Ottomans a minority totally dependent upon continued Ottoman rule. Allowing the Holy Land to be Jewish majority would cause the Ottomans issues with the entire Islamic world.

The Ottomans would welcome some Jewish factories, but it is hard to see the Ottomans allowing millions of Jews near Jerusalem, it causes so many problems with little gain. And if not moving to the Holy Land, there are a lot better places for a Jewish businessman to open a factory.
 

Old Airman

Banned
Ottoman survival does not preclude continued Jewish settlement in Palestine, but it does astronomically decrease the possibilities of an independent Jewish state
Agree. If it survives to a present day. However, I do not think it is too likely. More likely it sharing a fate of British Empire or USSR. And, if "Jewish Palestine" exists at this point, they would become independent.

There is a big difference in 50,000 and 5,000,000 million.
IOTL Israel's Jewish population was about 500K when it gained independence. This much IS possible.

Arab protest began immediately in 1919/1920.
They had been happening in Ottoman Empire too, but Ottomans' patience toward blackmailing and rioting was at notoriously low level. So "protestors" ("pogromists" is more appropriate terms here) did find themselves at receiving end of gendarmerie's rifles quickly. See, the "internal logic" of relationships within the empire was somewhat different from European colonies. This was not "white sahibs lording over black/yellow/brown masses". Turks were as "brown and Muslim" as Arabs were, and they were "maintaining law and order", not "punishing natives". So they could allow themselves to be real tough in "law enforcement". And, without Lawrence of Arabia and his colleagues during WWI, I don't foresee "Arab Nationalism" in ottoman Palestine as a force to be reckoned with before 1940s at very least.

Yes the Ottomans would sell some land to rich Jews, just there is no realistic way they would sell the majority of the good land to the Jews.
Ottomans did not sell land to Jews. Local landlords (overwhelmingly Arabs) did. Sorry for not making it clear enough from very beginning.
And if not moving to the Holy Land, there are a lot better places for a Jewish businessman to open a factory.
Kinda sorta yes. But opening factory in Holy Land allows a Jew to achieve 3 objectives at once. Get a profit, help Jewish community, be close to Temple Mount. If profit is slightly less here, some would tolerate it
 
I would like to note that the Ottoman authorities were far from ignorant about the intention of the Jewish settlers, and will be unlikely to let too many of them settle. Do remember that Zionists had offered to pay most of the Ottoman national debt to Abdulhamid II, but he had rejected it. The Ottomans very much wanted to keep Palestine, and would be very unlikely to cede any land without a fight (That Israel would most probably lose, without significant Western support). Long story short, there is pretty much no chance of an Israeli state in the Middle East with a surviving Ottoman Empire.
 
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