Hey, this is a timeline that I've been poking at for a while in some of my admittedly small free time. It's very much a work in progress, and has yet to be finished, but I thought I would post what I have thus far for discussion, hopefully prompting me to get up the gumption to finish it. The POD in this case is that Yuan Shikai does not have his falling out with the Qing Imperial court in the early twentieth century.
1911 - Outbreak of the Wuchang Uprising (Otherwise known as the Double-Ten Rebellion): Yuan Shikai, commander of the Beiyang Army and close ally of the Imperial government, responds to calls from Beijing to bring his forces to bear against the Revolutionary insurgents. Although this prevents the rebels from obtaining a decisive advantage in the conflict, it cannot stave off the overall collapse of Imperial authority.
1913 - What began as a provincial rebellion has by now escalated into full scale civil war. Forces have aligned themselves more or less along a bipolar axis, either with the remains of the Qing Empire in Beijing, or with the recently declared Republic of China in Guangzhou. The remains of the Qing are essentially dominated by a military regime under the Regency of Yuan Shikai, while the fledgling Republic rallies around their charismatic provisional President, Sun Yatsen. Both factions claim auspice over the whole of China, however neither possesses a sufficiently decisive advantage over the other, and the conflict is effectively a stalemate for the time being. Attempts at negotiations between the two will be made on several occasions, but none will prove satisfactory to all of the factions to be placated and thusly none will bear fruit. Appeals from both sides for European support yield little from the ambivalent Great Powers, and the outbreak of the First World War the next year renders such appeals effectively moot.
1916 - The stalemate is finally broken by the death of Yuan Shikai, leading to a significant fracturing in the forces in the North. Capitalizing upon this weakness, Revolutionary forces from the South take this opportunity to launch a major offensive. Divided as they are competing to fill the vacuum left by Yuan's death, the Qing-allied forces are left at a considerable disadvantage.
1918 - The last resistance from Qing-loyalists and other warlords is pacified and the capitol of the RoC is moved to Beijing. This triumph is bittersweet, however, as China has little choice but to acquiesce to Japanese demands at Versailles. An upwelling of bitter protest and anti-Japanese sentiment occurs, but the RoC is ill-equipped to take meaningful action against Japan. These events are used in propaganda from the new government as evidence that China must become a strong nation who can stand on her own, and a process of rebuilding and renewed modernization is begun.
1922 - Reconstruction and "New Self-Strengthening" have been generally successful, both benefiting in their turn from the economic upswings of the Roaring Twenties. However impressive economic improvements conceal lingering and potentially volatile political issues. While President Sun Yatsen remains an immensely popular figure, the Kuomintang is coming under fire amidst accusations that they are working to repress and disenfranchise political opposition in the government. President Sun makes no official statements on the matter aside from broad declarations about "maintaining a harmonious and strong nation". Some small concessions are made at indiscriminate intervals to certain opposition groups, but tensions over the matter will remain.
1925 - The Republic is rocked by the death of beloved President Sun Yatsen. In the absence of a charismatic focal point around which to rally, divisiveness within the government makes a marked resurgence, especially with regards to the selection of Sun's successor as President. This division, coupled with still simmering tensions with opposition groups, will nearly bring the young Republic to civil war before a solution is found.
1926 - After a great deal of tense and heated deliberation, Wang Jingwei is finally chosen to replace the late Sun Yatsen in the Presidency. Wang's administration would be characterized largely by continuing along the general path laid down by late President Sun, though with a noticeably more pronounced left-ward leaning tendency, and with a more conciliatory approach towards dealing with political opposition.
1930 - In the wake of the worldwide economic collapse, confidence in the policies of President Wang, which had grown increasingly left-ward in the immediately preceding years, will be largely demolished. President Wang will be forced to resign after a Vote of No Confidence, and the KMT will appoint Chiang Kaishek, head of the National Army, to the Presidency to deal with the national crisis and to combat increasing Japanese aggression in Manchuria. This move shall be of particular umbrage to Wang, who has possessed a bitter personal rivalry with Chiang for many years.
Thats all I have time to put up at the moment, but there will be more to come. Constructive comments are welcomed, and a gold star to whoever can figure out the title.
