Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

AFTER ZHIRINOVSKY - PART FOUR: A YANKEE ON YAWKEY WAY

Right off the bat, I want to apologize to everyone for the late delay in posting this. Work got a little crazy and a few weeks ago I injured my rotor cuff which prevented me from beign able to type much. Also, I had a trip earlier this month so it's been a busy few weeks.

Some new names in this update:

Duncan Hunter:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Hunter

Sam Brownback:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Brownback

Mike Gravel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Gravel

Ron Paul:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul

Chris Dodd:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Dodd

Yawkey Way:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yawkey_Way

David Ortiz:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ortiz

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Bushwhacked! Frontrunners Bush, Gephardt stunned in Iowa



President Bush campaign said to be on “life support” after historically bad fifth place finish



By Jack Horn

Denver Post- January 20, 2004


(DES MOINES, IOWA) In a stunning blow for the “establishment candidates” the two frontrunners for both the Republican and Democratic nomination for president were upset as a wave of anti-establishment fervor overtook the Hawkeye state.


Former House Majority Leader and 2000 vice presidential candidate Dick Gephardt was initially expected to win the State of Iowa, where he had been polling as high as 59% just twelve weeks ago. But his poll numbers took a notable hit after the entry of Iowa governor Tom Vilsack in September. The entry of Vilsack in the race seemed to turn the democratic nomination into a battle between the Missouri native and the Iowan, but lost in the discussion was the rapid assent Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who pulled off the improbable upset over Gephardt and Vilsack, winning 31.3% of the total vote against Gephardt’s 30.1% and Vilsack’s 28.7%. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd finished in fourth place with 8.9% of the vote. Dodd, who had focused most of his campaign on New Hampshire, did little campaigning in Iowa. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel finished with just under one percent of the vote.


“The message you have said to the Bush administration is crystal clear,” Kerry told supporters after CBS announced he had won the caucus. “It is time for real leadership in Washington!”


Although Kerry’s victory was seen as a stunning upset, it ultimately paled in comparison to the historic implosion of the Bush reelection campaign. President Bush finished in fifth place, putting his reelection campaign on life support as he heads to New Hampshire. In a shocking upset, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, who ran as the most “socially conservative” candidate in the race, scored the victory after winning 21.7 % of the vote. Brownback, along with former Michigan governor John Engler, was widely expected to be Bush’s toughest opponent in Iowa. But in a development that stunned many in the Republican establishment, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, who famously abandoned the Republican Party in 1998 to become a member of the Reform Party, came in second place with 21.6% of the vote. Tancredo, a leader of the resurgent FIN Party, has made immigration reform central to his campaign and has promised to “build a wall” on the Mexican border if elected. He also promised to end “Chechen immigration” into the United States if elected. Tancredo was widely criticized when he questioned if the Chechen Genocide actually occurred, and called on them to “go back to Russia” despite the fact that most Chechen refugees are prohibited from returning to the Russian republic.


”The so-called genocide of Chechnya is a convenient narrative that allows these refugees to move anywhere in the world that they want.” Tancredo said during a campaign speech in Des Moines in November. “As long as they say they were victims of a genocide they can then demand places like Iowa to open up their homes to them. But was it really a genocide, or just a population fleeing a war and looking for a chance to move to the United States without having to follow the rules like the rest of the world?”


The statement was widely criticized, but Tancredo refused to back down from the claim, even going so far as to claim that he had a list of “over two hundred members of Al Qaeda who had moved to Iowa after claiming refugee status.”


The claim was also widely debunked, but it nonetheless only served to boost Tancredo’s exposure.


Also finishing in a strong position was Engler, who finished in third place with 21.1% of the vote. Texas congressman Ron Paul, a libertarian leaning opponent of foreign intervention, was another candidate with a surprisingly strong finish, capturing 17.6%. Bush came in fifth with 17.4% of the vote, although he was only about 1,200 votes behind Brownback. Nonetheless the fact that four other candidates finished ahead of Bush put his campaign on “life support” as he heads into New Hampshire, a state that has not historically been friendly to the Bush family.


“This is a setback but we still plan to fight for every vote,” Bush told supporters after the final vote tally was counted. “We are still in this thing and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.”


California congressman Duncan Hunter finished with 0.6% of the vote and has announced he is suspending his campaign after his disappointing last place finish.



***

CNN interview with Dick Gephardt, Former House Majority Leader

July 26, 2010



CNN: Congressman, your third place finish in Iowa in 2004 effectively ended your political career. Although you were still polling quite high in South Carolina you elected to suspend your campaign after Iowa and back John Kerry for president. Kerry proved to be a somewhat flawed candidate and many Democrats express regret that you didn’t hang on a bit longer.


GEPHARDT: Well, hindsight is 20/20. Although I was polling well in South Carolina, I was also polling well in Iowa. And those poll numbers didn’t take into account Iowa and what was undoubtedly going to be a big win for Kerry in New Hampshire.


CNN: It is interesting to note that John Kerry was in many ways was playing the part you played in 2000 when you ran against Gore. Gore seemed tired and unable to beat back you and Howard Dean in the primary, only to double down and score the stunning come from behind victory. Do you regret not going that route? Not fighting until Super Tuesday?


GEPHARDT: (LONG PAUSE) Hindsight is 20/20.


***

Excerpts from the book “Loyal to a Fault: The Corruption of the Bush White House"
By Edward Grogan
Published by B&L Books © 2010




CHAPTER 11: LAST STAND IN CONCORD

The dismal fifth place finish had not only blindsided President Bush, but also his chief advisor Karl Rove. The Rove strategy for 2000 had been pulled out of cold storage, and for many in the Bush reelection campaign, the only real threat was from the former Michigan governor John Engler. Rove had hoped that the “anyone but Bush” camp could be fatally split into various camps, preventing Engler from upsetting the President. The social conservatives would back Brownback, the FIN Party, which had helped sink Jan Brewer’s campaign in 2000, would back Tancredo, and the libertarian wing would back Ron Paul. With those three factions out of play, Engler would seemingly be unable to overcome the deficit and would ultimately finish behind Bush in Iowa and New Hampshire, thus forcing him out of the race before Super Tuesday. But the plan backfired spectacularly after Bush fell to fifth place, even behind the deeply unpopular Ron Paul, whose views on drug legalization and foreign policy ran contrary to the views of the mainstream Republican Party.


Although Bush quietly seethed at Rove for telling him to keep a “hands off” approach in regards to Tancredo, Brownback, and Paul (all three having attacked Bush during the primary race) others in the Bush camp felt it wasn’t Rove who dropped the ball: it was President Bush’s disastrous Executive Order barring citizens of the Dominican Republic from entering the country.


“The Executive Order was the final straw,” James Baylor, a volunteer in Iowa for the Bush campaign, admitted. “We had struggled to fight the narrative that Bush was in over his head and that just sealed his fate.”


Bush disregarded the advice of Rove, who wanted Bush to double down on the Brownback or Bust strategy. To Rove, Bush should head to Florida and abandon both New Hampshire and South Carolina. New Hampshire was to be fought between Tancredo and Engler and the loser of that battle would most likely be forced out of the race. Brownback looked poised to win South Carolina, and once Brownback won South Carolina it would be a two man race. As unpopular as Bush may have been with many Americans, Rove felt confident in knowing that in a race between Bush and Brownback that the voters would recognize that Bush was the only viable choice. To Rove Brownback was utterly unelectable in a general election as he was seen by many moderates as an extremist.


But for Bush, the loss in Iowa had caused hemorrhaging, and he needed to stop the bleeding and fast. Disregarding Rove’s advice, Bush elected to focus his time and money on New Hampshire, a state where he was polling in third place. New Hampshire would be his Gettysburg: he would either win it or lose it all on January 27th.


But lost in the discussion of how to focus on campaigning in New Hampshire was a simple, disregarded fact that would sink the Bush campaign before it could even get off the ground in New Hampshire: the defending baseball world champion Boston Red Sox were about to start spring training, and they were notably short staffed.


***

Second Bush “town hall” in Concord derailed by angry Red Sox fans

January 22, 2004
By Robert Welch
Boston Herald

CONCORD — If George W. Bush didn’t already know it before this week, he certainly knows it know: Red Sox fans are passionate about their team.


For the second time in two days, President Bush had to cancel a town hall meeting after angry Red Sox fans took the opportunity to loudly criticize the President’s Executive Order barring citizens from Dominica from entering the United States. Although the law targeted citizens of the “Republic of Dominica” it inadvertently referred to the “Dominican Republic” in Section 2 of the order, which in turn led to the prohibition of citizens of the Dominican Republic from entering the United States. The Executive Order was quickly blocked by a federal judge in Oregon but not before Red Sox slugger David Ortiz was denied entry into the United States at Boston Logan International Airport on January 21st. Ortiz, whose eleventh inning home run in game seven of last years World Series against the Colorado Rockies gave Boston their first world series since 1918, was denied entry into the United States and was escorted back onto a United Airlines flight to Santo Domingo in handcuffs, a move that has needless to say sparked outrage with Red Sox fans.


“When are you going to get your head out of your rear end and cancel that Executive Order,” Red Sox fan Jeff Hill said to thunderous applause. “It’s stupid and it ain’t even on the right country.”


Bush tried to backpedaled from the controversy, saying that the Executive Order did not target Dominicans, but instead Russians, which prompted laughter and jeers from the audience. He also advised that Ortiz was free to come back to the United States since the federal courts had blocked the Executive Order.


“Right now he can come back,” Bush added. “And if the Supreme Court finds it to be Constitutional, which I think they will, they will certainly say it only apply to citizens of Dominica and not Dominicans. That was my intent.”


Ortiz has refused to return to the United States, calling his detention and removal in handcuffs as “one of the most humiliating experiences of my life.” He has indicated that until the Executive Order is rescinded or found to be unconstitutional he will not return.


“I don’t want to be put in handcuffs again.” Ortiz said in English when interviewed by Sports Illustrated three days ago. “I don’t want to be arrested.”


***

Excerpts from the book “What Went Wrong: Inside the Bush White House"
By Paul O’Neill
Published by Benton Press © 2006




CHAPTER 9: A YANKEE ON YAWKEY WAY

We said nothing as the news showed Jerry Anderson running to his car as angry Red Sox fans jeered him. He certainly didn’t sign up for this. He was just a campaign official in Concord. He wasn’t expecting three thousand angry Red Sox fans to appear at his office. He panicked and locked the doors and tried to sneak out back. But it was the worst possible response. President Bush had already announced he was canceling his remaining town hall style campaign stops, something the presumptive Democratic front runner John Kerry was jumping all over. But this…this was fatal. The image of the Bush campaign office locking their doors and running, literally running, to their car to get away…it was not the projection of strength the President was hoping to convey.


“This is obviously Kerry’s doing,” I said angrily. “He’s behind this. Half those protesters don’t even look like they ever saw a baseball game in their lives!”


“Of course he’s behind this,” Karl Rove said with disgust. “What about it?”


“We should say something,” I replied. “Call him out for harassing the President on the campaign trail. This is clearly staged; we can’t let him get away with it!”


“It’s too late,” Rove said sadly. “It’s over. We lost.”


I said nothing. Tomorrow I would call the President and offer him words of encouragement when the voters of New Hampshire went to the polls. But I knew better. He was as popular as a Yankee on Yawkey Way in New England and we all knew it. After he lost I would continue to offer President Bush my support, all the way until he was out of the race. But it was over. Karl Rove was right. Some tiny island in the Caribbean with a population of a few thousand had done the unthinkable: they had overthrown the government of the United States of America.
 
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Couldn't the CIA/MI6 support the "native" Dominicans with anti-Russian propaganda, encouraging civil disobedience, etc? To add a layer of deniability they can do so by supporting a group of Dominican exiles in Barbados or Jamaica.

EDIT: another matter, at this time the court of final appeal for Dominica (along with several other countries) still rests with the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council. This means there will be no grounds for Dominica to extradite. And on what grounds are they requesting extradition?

In terms of the second point, and I may be wrong on this since British and Commonwealth extradition law is not an area of expertise, but my understanding is that it would fall under the London Scheme:

Arrangements with Commonwealth countries are set under The London Scheme and are implemented by the Extradition (Commonwealth Countries) Regulations 2010). Under British law he would have the right to a hearing in 21 days in the U.K. To challenge the extradition. But that in and of itself is a political hot potato that the U.K. Would want to avoid. So even if Kerry's isn't extradited he would be detained (or have his passport seized) pending this hearing.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/extradition-processes-and-review

Basically the procedure is:

Requests from these territories need decisions by both the Secretary of State and the courts.

The extradition process to these territories follows these steps:

  • extradition request is made to the Secretary of State
  • Secretary of State decides whether to certify the request
  • judge decides whether to issue a warrant for arrest
  • the person wanted is arrested and brought before the court
  • preliminary hearing
  • extradition hearing
  • Secretary of State decides whether to order extradition
(See above web page)

So right now it is being "reviewed" by the Secretary of State for certification. If he refuses to certify it there is a political fallout that discredits the trial against Zhirinovsky (the argument would most likely be you can't commit a war crime if you only kill Russians or Serbs or something like that). If he agrees to certify it then the U.K. Is in the unenviable position of refusing to let the former president of the United States leave the country pending his preliminary hearing, which we all know will turn into a circus that embarrasses the U.K.

Again, I am not an expert on Commonwealth extradition law, and considering the extradition was denied right off the bat maybe they lacked standing. But again, this was more political theater than a serious request.
 
Well, look what I just made: a map of the four proposals regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan on the M-BAM:

tuFrnIY.png

Great maps @Gian Thanks for sharing!

It looks a lot better than the ones I used in the early updates.
 
Talk about an inglorious end for the Bush White House.

I'm surprised Bush even tried to run at all. Even if he had gotten the nomination, there was no way in hell that he would have won the Upper Midwest, considering the disaster that was Ohio on 9/11. Even if the Midwesterners didn't like John Kerry, they would have never forgiven Bush for his failure on 9/11.
 
what happens to Lithuanian and Slovenia and czechia and Slovakia and Latin america.
 
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Just started reading this, so I have a lot to get through, but a few minor points on the UK's part of the timeline that I noticed so far.

Tony Blair is identified as leader of the Labour Party in the early '90s at a time presumably preceding John Major's first general election as Prime Minister. IRL, Neil Kinnock was still Labour leader at the time of Major's 1992 victory and was replaced by John Smith, who died in 1994 and was replaced by Blair. While it's certainly possible that Labour might have replaced Kinnock and chosen Blair for whatever reason, I didn't see an obvious point of divergence that would have caused this to happen. Also, in the earlier portion of their careers, Gordon Brown was actually seen as the higher-profile moderate/reformer within Labour ranks with Blair as sort of the second fiddle.

Gerald Kaufman is identified as Foreign Secretary in early 1992, but it appears that Major is still Prime Minister in August 1992. Kaufman is a long-time Labour member whereas Major is a Conservative, and the Conservatives won majorities in both the 1987 and 1992 elections, so there would have been no reason to invite an opposition party member to join the Cabinet. Even there's a POD where Major called an earlier election that didn't go as well for the Conservatives and was surviving in a minority government situation, it's unlikely that they would form a "unity government" with Labour that would bring Kaufman or anyone else from Labour into the Cabinet. An agreement with the northern Irish unionists or even the Liberal Democrats probably would have been preferable for most Conservative politicians and voters in that scenario, unless the foreign policy upheavals have redrawn the traditional fault lines of UK politics.


Thanks for the input @FlyingSquirrel. I'll be honest, I avoided talking much about British politics in here since I wasn't well versed on the subject and I knew many others here were. My main focus was on Cameron not being leader of the conservatives since his perceived ties to the UIS, which in hindsight might not have caused him much grief after all. Now I will have to reread my own work here but my recollection was that Blair didn't take over until 1997, same as OTL. But I will review it and may retcon that info with Kaufman named as a cabinet member since that is a very valid point. Thanks again for the feedback!
 
Finally finished reading this scenario right around the time you replied to my comment! I hope I didn't sound too critical because I was extremely impressed overall. You really got into a lot of detail in how other countries' internal affairs were being affected by the UIS and how all the different personalities and agendas might intersect. I was also fascinated by "your" Putin, as I could never tell whether he was lying to make himself look good and/or Lebed look bad or if he was actually the only one telling the truth about some of what was happening. Anyway, fantastic work - a real epic.

And on a personal note, I was just starting to get into politics and follow international relations when I was in high school in the early '90s, and Zhirinovsky's antics were a regular conversation topic for me and a similarly inclined friend. I hadn't really heard much about him in a long time, though lately I've been reading that perhaps he's been consciously "playing a role" at the Kremlin's behest all along. It makes me wonder what would have happened IRL if his initial popularity during the Yeltsin era hadn't just fizzled out. Or, for that matter, maybe he did cut his ties with the establishment for a while and was genuinely trying to win real power in the '90s? It seems unlikely that he actually sees himself as a viable alternative to Putin now, but who knows....
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
And on a personal note, I was just starting to get into politics and follow international relations when I was in high school in the early '90s, and Zhirinovsky's antics were a regular conversation topic for me and a similarly inclined friend. I hadn't really heard much about him in a long time, though lately I've been reading that perhaps he's been consciously "playing a role" at the Kremlin's behest all along. It makes me wonder what would have happened IRL if his initial popularity during the Yeltsin era hadn't just fizzled out. Or, for that matter, maybe he did cut his ties with the establishment for a while and was genuinely trying to win real power in the '90s? It seems unlikely that he actually sees himself as a viable alternative to Putin now, but who knows....

I've always believed the monkey role for Z. I said this the other year early in the thread and remain committed in the idea that it is true.
The 'reasonable' Putin can point to him and say to the West that is what you get if you try to get rid of me. I've read before that money is given to Russian opposition groups too through clear proxies from the regime as they play a political game that we in the West don't get but which works for them: letting Z do his thing, supporting him behind the scenes in frightening the West, really is what I believe has always been done.
 
Somehow when I kept seeing this timeline show up in my Watched Threads I kept thinking it was people just talking about it. Had no idea it was actually being continued.
I loooove details you pepper this timeline with; the whole tie in with Dominica of all places to the UIS and to Bush's reelection campaign of all things is brilliant.
 
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