Zhang Shicheng does not ally with Toghto/Yuan?

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The Northern faction of the Red Turbans had many years of successes against the Yuan led by Toghto, the prime minister who was a catalyst in starting the rebellion due to the salt monopoly and the flood relief tax. He beat the first wave of rebellions back, but the Yuan forces were however unable to finish the job because Toghto was recalled to Dadu and ordered to kill himself, and afterwards the Yuan armies were headed by antagonistic generals who could never coordinate properly. Eventually one of the leaders, Zhang Shicheng, allied himself with the Mongols (supplying them with grain through Suizhou).

With the situation somewhat stablised, the Yuan, aided by Zhang and local feudal lords, started winning victories against the rebels, led by Liu Futun and headed by Han Lin'er, the Little King of Later Da Song (brought by Liu to head the movement since 1351).

With Zhang's help, in 1363, the Yuan forces trapped Liu and the King in Anfeng, Liu died and Han Lin'er escaped/was rescued by Zhu Yuanzhang, remaining his prisoner-guest until he was drowned later on in 1367.

Zhu would go on to defeat Zhang, the Han under Chen Youliang, the Yuan and Basalwarmi in Yunnan, becoming the first Ming Emperor.

So what if Zhang is not tempted by vassal status from the Yuan?

1. Would the Northern Reds continue with their successes?
2. Could the Da Song continue? Would they have the strength to deal with Zhu before he becomes too powerful (he already holds Nanjing, but it's not quite the city it became later).
3. Would the radical White Lotus buddhist/manichean philosophy continue to prosper (in contrast with the Ming who went neo-Confucian and persecuted religious sects) and could it ever make it as a government religion.
4. Any other implications to world history if the above sequence makes sense?

 

[DementedCheeseDoodle]

This is an interesting concept. Most people reckon that the superior tactics of the mongols would have won anyway, but they were also skilled politicians who could employ cultural differences to their own advantage. The formation of the Mongol Empire was highly dependent on both their political acumen and military skill, and a disastrous defeat in China could have crippled the Mongols. I'm interested in the viability of this timeline.

 

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I guess I wasn't very clear.

This takes place in the ember days of the Great Yuan, during the Red Turban rebellion. The Mongols had lots of Chinese soldiers in their army, and often did beat the rebels in the field, but their state was completely disorganised and factitious; it won't be easy for the Yuan to make it out of this intact.

I was hoping someone knows a little more source material as to the relative power of Zhu and Zhang and Liu/Han Lin'er. I know that Zhu had a narrow victory over Chen Louyang on the lake, so he wasn't quite unstoppable in the 1357-1363 timeframe.

 

[DementedCheeseDoodle]

I apologize, I read the first few sentences and automatically assumed that you were talking about the RISE of the Mongols in the date of the Late Song. If I had read a bit more, I might of realized the mention of Zhu Yuanzhang. Sorry

 

[RGB]

I apologize, I read the first few sentences and automatically assumed that you were talking about the RISE of the Mongols in the date of the Late Song. If I had read a bit more, I might of realized the mention of Zhu Yuanzhang. Sorry

Eh, no problem at all.

I was just wondering if you know something about the period of the rise of Ming.

 

[subversivepancakes]

So what if Zhang is not tempted by vassal status from the Yuan?

1. Would the Northern Reds continue with their successes?
2. Could the Da Song continue? Would they have the strength to deal with Zhu before he becomes too powerful (he already holds Nanjing, but it's not quite the city it became later).
3. Would the radical White Lotus buddhist/manichean philosophy continue to prosper (in contrast with the Ming who went neo-Confucian and persecuted religious sects) and could it ever make it as a government religion.
4. Any other implications to world history if the above sequence makes sense?

As I understand it (CAUTION: may be wrong!), Zhang was rather stuck between a rock and a hard place. He really wasn't in a position where he could credibly fight Zhu Yuanzhang and the Yuan Chao at the same time. I'm fairly sure that he actually tried to make the same tribute/vassal relationship with Zhu that he later made with the Yuan, but was rebuffed. So Zhang himself felt that he was destined to be someone's vassal (he was highly cautious, but he had been defeated by Zhu repeatedly in the late 1350s). To my mind, a more interesting question than "What if Zhang isn't tempted by vassal status from the Yuan?" is "What if Zhu accepted Zhang's offer of vassalage?" Given Zhang's actions and personality OTL, it doesn't seem likely that he'd go it alone given the strategic situation. Another interesting what if would be "What if Zhang had acted more decisively against Zhu once he had accepted the Yuan offer of vassalage?" Because Zhu was in a difficult position for a while once the deal had been made, given that he was caught between Zhang and Chen Youliang's other Red Turban group to the north. You could very easily see a different Red Turban leader rise to prominence, perhaps followed by that leader turning on Zhang, or Zhang backing out of his deal with the Yuan . . . but now I'm just speculating.

 

[RGB]

As I understand it (CAUTION: may be wrong!), Zhang was rather stuck between a rock and a hard place. He really wasn't in a position where he could credibly fight Zhu Yuanzhang and the Yuan Chao at the same time. I'm fairly sure that he actually tried to make the same tribute/vassal relationship with Zhu that he later made with the Yuan, but was rebuffed. So Zhang himself felt that he was destined to be someone's vassal (he was highly cautious, but he had been defeated by Zhu repeatedly in the late 1350s). To my mind, a more interesting question than "What if Zhang isn't tempted by vassal status from the Yuan?" is "What if Zhu accepted Zhang's offer of vassalage?" Given Zhang's actions and personality OTL, it doesn't seem likely that he'd go it alone given the strategic situation. Another interesting what if would be "What if Zhang had acted more decisively against Zhu once he had accepted the Yuan offer of vassalage?" Because Zhu was in a difficult position for a while once the deal had been made, given that he was caught between Zhang and Chen Youliang's other Red Turban group to the north. You could very easily see a different Red Turban leader rise to prominence, perhaps followed by that leader turning on Zhang, or Zhang backing out of his deal with the Yuan . . . but now I'm just speculating.

Oh, please, speculate away. You're more qualified than most.

So alright, say Zhang somehow convinces the Yuan that Zhu is a bigger threat than Liu Futong...what can happen then?

It probably still means the collapse of the White Lotus, in time. I was hoping for a potential exploration on White Lotus in Power, but Chen in Power is an interesting one too.