Zenobia defeats Aurelian at Antioch

Zenobia was one of the most powerful women in the Near East during the latter half of the third century. The queen of Palmyra, she ended up ruling an short-lived empire that included the Levant, Egypt and most of Anatolia. Any greater ambitions that she may have had were cut short when her army was defeated at Antioch by the Roman army of the emperor Aurelian, returning from campaigning against the Gallic Empire. What if things had turned out differently and Aurelian was the one captured by Queen Zenobia and his army was decisively defeated by the Palmyrene army?
 
If his army was merely defeated...well he would probably secure some peace, possibly making the bosporous the border between the two states? Then he could focus on finishing off the Gallic Empire before turning back and giving it a go at Zenobia again.

But if he was captured or killed...well the Palmyrene Empire might be sitting pretty. I'm not sure if it can survive indefinitely, but I wouldn't be surprised if that defeat was the final nail in the coffin for reuiniting the Roman Empire. This POD would go well with a surviving Postumus, which would make the Gallic Empire more stable and likelier to survive longterm--that in itself would hamper Aurelian's ability to unite the empire under one banner again.
 
What if things had turned out differently and Aurelian was the one captured by Queen Zenobia and his army was decisively defeated by the Palmyrene army?
Well, I know Aurelian and doubt that he could be captured easily. But he definitely could be killed in action and his army defeated.
The core of the Palmyrene army is the Arabs. So we have the rise of the Arabs long before Muhammed and caliphs.
The best case scenario for this first Arabian Empire is stretching from Spain in the West to Indus in the East.
The moderate case is Empire including the Roman lands from Egypt to Anatolia and comprising Mesopotamia and possibly good chunks of Iran. And most of Arabia acknowledges the hegemony of Palmyra supplying her with best Arabian warriors.

This Empire might live a few hundred years. But in this ATL the Arabian elites would lose their language and culturally this Empire will be closer to the Roman Empire than to the Iranians. The ruler of the Palmyrene state might have both titles of Emperor and "king of kings" (shahinshah).
 
The best case scenario for this first Arabian Empire is stretching from Spain in the West to Indus in the East.

I think that's a bit much. Zenobia doesn't have what's-his-name (Walid?), the Arab military genius who won all these epic victories for the Caliphate early on, the Arabs as a people aren't united, and they don't have Islam to drive them on.

However, he Arabs were able to capitalize on Byzantine and Persian weakness and Byzantine religious problems (ex. the Copts in Egypt). Could the divided Roman Empire offer similar opportunities?
 
The moderate case is Empire including the Roman lands from Egypt to Anatolia and comprising Mesopotamia and possibly good chunks of Iran. And most of Arabia acknowledges the hegemony of Palmyra supplying her with best Arabian warriors.

According to the "Stuff You Missed In History Class" podcast, Zenobia's armies occupied Egypt at one point (or at least got into the country). Depending on how much Zenobia could bounce back from defeated Aurelian, having another go at Egypt might be in the cards.

On the other hand, whoever controls Egypt and its grain has their hands on Rome's throat. A surviving Aurelian (assuming one of his own subordinates doesn't kill him) or whoever succeeds him is going to want Rome in control of Egypt.

What kind of sea power did Zenobia have? The Roman fleet could take Alexandria (the Byzantines did, from the Arabs) even if Zenobia's forces have land superiority.
 
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