Zarqawi's planned massive chemical attack on Jordan occurs

Starting in late 2002 Zarqawi (who was moving back and forth from Syria and Iraq at the time) began planning a massive operation that he believed would bring down the government of Jordan and plunge the nation into chaos. Over the next two years his organization (which by the way Assad let plan, train, organize and operate freely in Syria with the agreement that they don't wage war on the Syrian government) managed to obtain the resources to plan the largest chemical weapons attack any terrorist group had ever conducted... well this NBC News video from 2004 talks about the attack and shows the chemical truck bomb that was already ready for use when the plot was foiled.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wK7WIDy_WmU

Keep in mind this chemical truck bomb along with the rest was put together in Syria and the organization and planning of the attack was virtually all based out of Syria not Iraq as the video makes clear. Had the plan not been uncovered, the attack been carried out and Jordan's capital was plunged inth chaos what would have been the long term effects on the region?

Would more Western nations decide to become involved in fighting terrorism in the Middle East least such attacks occur in their country? Americans would die in the attack as well as the plan included killing everyone in the U.S. Embassy in Jordan as would many Westerners visiting Jordan's capital. Given that the attack was basically planned and carried out with the Syrian government at very least being complicit in haboring the terrorists involved would the U.S. decide to ignore Russia's warnings and come down hard on Syria?

At that point Assad's passive and at times active support of terrorist groups was key to their ability to organize, plan and wage war on U.S. troops in Iraq as well as Iraqi civilians which of course almost led to a civil war in Iraq. The Syrian government provided al-Qaeda in Iraq a safe base (until they reciently turned Assad) which was critical in allowing the groups the ability to organize, train and plan attacks on Western troops or civilians in the countries next door.

Keep in mind as the UN report on the murder of Lebanon's former PM showed al-Qaeda in Iraq gave the Syrian Mukhabarat at their request a suicide bomber to use to conduct the operation to kill Hariri so the Syrian regime was doing far more then just ignoring al-Qaeda's presence in their country... they were directly working with their leadership.
 
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By the way to provide a little extra context the reason Bush only used SF against al-Qaeda training camps in Syria which didn't do alot to hurt their operations there is that while Putin gave Bush the behind the scenes (not public) thumbs up to remove Saddam in 2002 he also made clear that Russia fully backed the Syrian government and attacking Assad was a red line for Russia.

Below is an example OTL of the only kind of attacks Bush allowed on al-Qaeda training camps in Syria as President.

US helicopter raid on Syria kills eight

US helicopters flying from Iraq landed inside Syria yesterday and dropped special forces who killed eight people, the Damascus government said today as Washington admitted it had targeted "foreign fighters".

Syria warned it held the US "wholly responsible for this act of aggression and all its repercussions". Russia and Iran condemned the raid. Iraq said it had had prior knowledge of the attack, but described it as regrettable.

The Syrian government said eight people had been killed, among them a man and his four children, and a woman. At the funerals of the victims today, however, an Associated Press photographer saw the bodies of seven men.

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is being courted by Europe. He had also been looking forward to improved relations with Washington after the November 4 presidential election.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/27/syria-usa

Personally I hated back then how so many European governments I believed at the time because they hated Bush so much was willing to turn a blind eye to Assad's open support of terrorism and openly back his regime and even court him as the Guardian article above from 2008 says. I also had a very low opinion of the current WH's foreign policy team from the start because they completely bought Assad's endless lies from 2009 really until this year (when they finally figured out he isn't a 'reformer'.

The current State Dept. even castigated the Iraqi PM Maliki in 2009 for saying that Assad was supporting terrorism against Iraq even though it was very damn clear he was. Now we attack Maliki for not doing more to help stop Iranian flights that have been aiding Assad even though he has no control over his own air space as we still haven't given him the jets he bought from us. Was it all Bush hate that blinded Europe and team Obama about Assad for so very long?

Maybe alot of it was also because Assad wore a business suit instead of a turban and sold himself as secular and talked a good game that so many in the West couldn't believe he was actually a brutal dictator willing to harbor and support groups like al-Qaeda among a number of other terror groups when he believed it suited his interests.
 
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