Zanzibar as independent--results, what else?

Zanzibar has a very interesting history. It was once a major trade center for the entire Indian Ocean region, and served as the major base of the Omani Empire in Africa. Even now, Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous part of Tanzania. It came to be this way because the Zanzibar Revolution, which annexed Zanzibar to Tanganyika thus forming Tanzania.

So let's say the Zanzibar Revolution is crushed (it seems like it could have failed based on what happened OTL), but the fact it happened spurs the Zanzibar government into action toward correcting the situation that allowed such an event to occur. What happens next? Zanzibar borders a hostile neighbour in Julius Nyerere's Tanganyika (as a side note, it's unlikely Tanganyika renames itself as Tanzania). Does the United Kingdom/United States need to intervene?

Zanzibar has a great potential as a trading city like Hong Kong or Singapore, and could be a "gateway to Africa" or sorts. Does Zanzibar need a figure like Lee Kuan Yew to achieve this? Could one of the thousands of massacred Indians or Arabs have been that person to help Zanzibar become something more than a backwater part of Tanzania, presumably as Prime Minister for Jamshid bin Abdullah, the Sultan of Zanzibar? Is the fact Zanzibar already had a monarch a barrier to its potential success?

So, really, what might happen with an independent Zanzibar?
 
It might be interesting if they got a major power to offer protection in return for basing rights. This might help to allow it to keep its independence and allow for growth and prosperity.
 
realistically, Zanzibar all by itself probably wouldn't be exceptionally well-off or in terribly bad sorts compared to OTL (particularly compared to OTL Tanzania). it'd probably be another obscure state that most people never heard of, much like the Comoros
 
It might be interesting if they got a major power to offer protection in return for basing rights. This might help to allow it to keep its independence and allow for growth and prosperity.

Of course, that shifts a lot of the decisions to the UK, who seem to me to be the only real option, unless the US wants to go fool around more in Africa.

Could Zanzibar be Afro-Islamic tax paradise?

The only real plausible way of doing things. It is believed to have oil, but I don't know if the resources are either large enough or economical enough (especially in the 1960s when things need to start taking off) to enable development as a petro-state, although it might help.

But a place where Arab oil sheikhs and African dictators alike stash their money has an interesting amount of appeal and intrigue.

realistically, Zanzibar all by itself probably wouldn't be exceptionally well-off or in terribly bad sorts compared to OTL (particularly compared to OTL Tanzania). it'd probably be another obscure state that most people never heard of, much like the Comoros

Historically it was a major trading port for the Indian Ocean. It really does seem like it could have developed along the lines of Singapore, although since the conditions and situations are different I couldn't see Zanzibar surpass Singapore.

There's also the fact that there's suspected to be oil resources in the immediate area. It also has tourist potential (which might be to some degree mutually exclusive with oil/financial development) as well as spice-based agriculture, all of which could be a base to build on. So I think it could be better off than the Comoros, definitely.

Racial tensions could be an issue. The dominant class, the Arabs, are a minority, as is the Indian community present there (which might increase if Indians find it a safe haven from the violence perpetuated against them elsewhere in Africa at the time).
 
There's also the fact that there's suspected to be oil resources in the immediate area. It also has tourist potential (which might be to some degree mutually exclusive with oil/financial development) as well as spice-based agriculture, all of which could be a base to build on. So I think it could be better off than the Comoros, definitely.

It's already a fairly popular holiday destination among South Africans and Europeans.

My brother managed a resort there for two years about ten years ago. He enjoyed it and they used to get loads of tourists.
 
It's already a fairly popular holiday destination among South Africans and Europeans.

My brother managed a resort there for two years about ten years ago. He enjoyed it and they used to get loads of tourists.

It's a beautiful place. Very clear water, nice beaches, a lot of history.

The Comoros have at least the first two items there and I don't think any of them get visitors except Mayotte (which is French territory).

It all comes down to the political situation. And as the Revolution showed, Zanzibar had some huge structural problems.

Although meddling from Nyerere is a given. It's just what he does. And Bob Denard would conquer it a time or two as well.
 
It's a beautiful place. Very clear water, nice beaches, a lot of history.

The Comoros have at least the first two items there and I don't think any of them get visitors except Mayotte (which is French territory).

It all comes down to the political situation. And as the Revolution showed, Zanzibar had some huge structural problems.

Although meddling from Nyerere is a given. It's just what he does. And Bob Denard would conquer it a time or two as well.

Bob Denard might actually be a benefit if it keeps Nyerere away (well, lesser of two evils, because that would mean instability which is bad for developing an economy). He won't get involved unless France decides Zanzibar would be a good base or France develops major interests there. Which would be interesting since Zanzibar was a British colony.
 
With its oil, Zanzibar could become another Bahrain/Qatar. Its capital would have some marvelous skyscrapers and luxury shopping malls etc like in Doha or Dubai. That would bring in even more and wealthier tourists.
Oil production will be probably done by Saudi Aramco and BP.
Islamism will grow in independent Zanzibar and shariah law would be eventually implemented. Africans would be treated similarly as in Mauritania. They would oppose the monarchy while Arabs will mostly support it.
In 2011, Africans and some disgruntled Arabs will take the streets of Zanzibar City as the Arab Spring spreads to the archipelago.
The sultan would call its closest ally Oman to intervene, and the uprising is crushed with bloodshed.
This radicalizes many youths who travel to Syria and join ISIS.
Under the surface, situation remains tense. Omani troops stay in the country, and suicide bombings are sometimes carried out by jihadists. Fruits of economic growth and oil revenues are inequally distributed.
Race relations are strained.
 
With its oil, Zanzibar could become another Bahrain/Qatar. Its capital would have some marvelous skyscrapers and luxury shopping malls etc like in Doha or Dubai. That would bring in even more and wealthier tourists.
Oil production will be probably done by Saudi Aramco and BP.
Islamism will grow in independent Zanzibar and shariah law would be eventually implemented. Africans would be treated similarly as in Mauritania. They would oppose the monarchy while Arabs will mostly support it.
In 2011, Africans and some disgruntled Arabs will take the streets of Zanzibar City as the Arab Spring spreads to the archipelago.
The sultan would call its closest ally Oman to intervene, and the uprising is crushed with bloodshed.
This radicalizes many youths who travel to Syria and join ISIS.
Under the surface, situation remains tense. Omani troops stay in the country, and suicide bombings are sometimes carried out by jihadists. Fruits of economic growth and oil revenues are inequally distributed.
Race relations are strained.

I'm not sure many "negroes", as the Arab nationalist Zanzibari government would likely see them as, would, radicalized or not, join ISIS, due to its primarily Arab ethnic makeup. And besides, was Arab Spring not democratic in its outlook? Why would they go become Islamist terrorists? That goes against democracy, and terrorism is much different than the protests that characterized Arab Spring (Yes, there are countries like Syria and Egypt where the government has either been overthrown or a civil war has begun, but in most countries, it's been just protests). I understand that in your idea, Islamism grows in Zanzibar, but realistically it would not be violent Islamism, more like a peaceful, political-type Islamism. Especially in a black-majority country like Zanzibar, which tends to focus on African nationalism rather than Islamism. And for the Arabs, a reason for them to not join ISIS was the fact that, I'm pretty sure, they're mostly Ibadi. Not Sunni. And also, while Ibadism is a very conservative sect of Islam, it preaches solving problems through REASON, not through conflict. I understand that these are young people we're talking about, and thus they're impressionable, they'll probably hate ISIS. Furthermore, reports show that not ONE OMANI has joined ISIS, young or old, male or female. The same will probably hold true in Zanzibar. Thus, all jihad attacks will be carried out by foreign terrorists. If anything, that would make both groups hate terrorists even more.

So, in conclusion, ISIS probably wouldn't get a following of any size whatsoever in Zanzibar. For the blacks, because they dislike Arabs, and for the Arabs, because they dislike Sunnis. And for both, because ISIS is bombing the fuck out of them.

But yeah, I agree with most of your other points like Zanzibar becoming a capitalist paradise with beautiful architecture and foreign oil firms or Omani troops establishing a military dictatorship in Zanzibar.
 
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