I voted for Corbyn in 2015-although I did not in 2016 and would not do so now. I didn't dislike Cooper, but I felt that she was overrated as a leadership candidate. The professional political class did like her-which is why her chances always seemed to be overestimated, but I never felt that she offered anything which ordinary party members could get excited about-and that's generally what wins internal party elections.
There are only two scenarios I can think of that would see Cooper win in 2015; one where Corbyn doesn't get on the ballot at all; and another where he does, but somehow he fails to win-the only way I can see this happening is if the electoral college remains in place-which is very easy to make happen, Eric Joyce doesn't go drinking one night, and there would be no Falkirk scandal. By the time nominations closed IOTL, with the four candidates on the ballot, Corbyn was always going to win.
Even if the electoral college was still around though, the winner would have likely been Burnham, not Cooper, so you need an additional PoD to get her past Burnham and then beat Corbyn in the run off.
If Corbyn did not stand, he's still a backbench nobody, if he does and fails to win, then he becomes a hugely prominent figure in the party, particularly as the narrative would be that the PLP stole the election from the left-the party would then enter a different sort of civil war-more akin to the early 1980s with a moderate leadership against a left wing insurgency-maybe Corbyn would estabilish himself as a latter day Tony Benn type figure, or maybe he would stand aside for someone from the younger generation like Long-Bailey or Lewis in time.
One thing I am certain of is that Cooper would never offer Corbyn a job in her shadow cabinet, let alone agree to run on some sort of joint ticket-she was profoundly opposed to Corbyn's politics, and that's why she refused to sit in his shadow cabinet-if she did a deal with him, you'd likely see a mass exodus of her parliamentary support for Kendall and Burnham, and her campaign would deflate massively, even if the electoral college was not there.
In terms of how things would go with Cooper as leader, it's easy to sit here with the current dumpster fire that is Labour and talk about how much better things would be had someone other than Corbyn won out in 2015, but I don't think things would anywhere near as good as some people imagine. There was a reason he wiped the floor with Cooper and the other two- they were each of them dull, technocratic, and utterly lacking in any kind of vision. Even if one of them somehow won, that problem would not go away-they would fail to inspire the electorate in much the same way they failed to inspire the membership. This is not a left or right thing- although Blair was a centrist, he also managed to seem fairly radical in many ways-and Burnham, Cooper, and Kendall, all failed to do that.
Obviously, there is a big question over what would happen with Brexit-Cooper would campaign more strongly for Remain than Corbyn did, so maybe that is just enough to tip the balance toward Remain-or maybe not. It's difficult to quantify how much of an effect opposition leaders have on these sorts of things.
If Remain wins, I imagine the next election would come in 2020, Labour would be polling competitively with the Tories for much of the parliament, but there would be the same a sense of a malaise that there was under Miliband as they struggle to get a decisive lead, whilst UKIP rise in the polls at the same time. The Greens would also probably be polling better at this stage as well.
If Brexit still happens, then I think Labour is also equally screwed-remember Cooper's line has been broadly similar to Corbyn's-she's not a second referendum supporter. Like Corbyn, she would try and fail to hold the party together by taking a middle road, but probably end up disillusioning both sides in the process. The Brexiteers would go off to support the Tories or BP, and the Remainers would go off to support the Lib Dems or the Greens-who would probably do even better than in the first scenario by rallying left wing remainers who have stuck by Corbyn IOTL-you could even see a handful of defections from some Labour left wingers-depending on how strong there faction is within Labour in this scenario.
I still think there wouldn't be the kind of surge in support for May or any other new Tory PM that we saw OTL-which means no snap election-so the Tories would still have a majority, but in all probability not a large enough one to get the deal passed. So in many ways, we could be in a very similar position to where we are now-a Labour Party that is trying and failing to be all things to all people-except on the economy as well as Brexit-and we have four or maybe even five parties polling within ten points of each other.
There are only two scenarios I can think of that would see Cooper win in 2015; one where Corbyn doesn't get on the ballot at all; and another where he does, but somehow he fails to win-the only way I can see this happening is if the electoral college remains in place-which is very easy to make happen, Eric Joyce doesn't go drinking one night, and there would be no Falkirk scandal. By the time nominations closed IOTL, with the four candidates on the ballot, Corbyn was always going to win.
Even if the electoral college was still around though, the winner would have likely been Burnham, not Cooper, so you need an additional PoD to get her past Burnham and then beat Corbyn in the run off.
If Corbyn did not stand, he's still a backbench nobody, if he does and fails to win, then he becomes a hugely prominent figure in the party, particularly as the narrative would be that the PLP stole the election from the left-the party would then enter a different sort of civil war-more akin to the early 1980s with a moderate leadership against a left wing insurgency-maybe Corbyn would estabilish himself as a latter day Tony Benn type figure, or maybe he would stand aside for someone from the younger generation like Long-Bailey or Lewis in time.
One thing I am certain of is that Cooper would never offer Corbyn a job in her shadow cabinet, let alone agree to run on some sort of joint ticket-she was profoundly opposed to Corbyn's politics, and that's why she refused to sit in his shadow cabinet-if she did a deal with him, you'd likely see a mass exodus of her parliamentary support for Kendall and Burnham, and her campaign would deflate massively, even if the electoral college was not there.
In terms of how things would go with Cooper as leader, it's easy to sit here with the current dumpster fire that is Labour and talk about how much better things would be had someone other than Corbyn won out in 2015, but I don't think things would anywhere near as good as some people imagine. There was a reason he wiped the floor with Cooper and the other two- they were each of them dull, technocratic, and utterly lacking in any kind of vision. Even if one of them somehow won, that problem would not go away-they would fail to inspire the electorate in much the same way they failed to inspire the membership. This is not a left or right thing- although Blair was a centrist, he also managed to seem fairly radical in many ways-and Burnham, Cooper, and Kendall, all failed to do that.
Obviously, there is a big question over what would happen with Brexit-Cooper would campaign more strongly for Remain than Corbyn did, so maybe that is just enough to tip the balance toward Remain-or maybe not. It's difficult to quantify how much of an effect opposition leaders have on these sorts of things.
If Remain wins, I imagine the next election would come in 2020, Labour would be polling competitively with the Tories for much of the parliament, but there would be the same a sense of a malaise that there was under Miliband as they struggle to get a decisive lead, whilst UKIP rise in the polls at the same time. The Greens would also probably be polling better at this stage as well.
If Brexit still happens, then I think Labour is also equally screwed-remember Cooper's line has been broadly similar to Corbyn's-she's not a second referendum supporter. Like Corbyn, she would try and fail to hold the party together by taking a middle road, but probably end up disillusioning both sides in the process. The Brexiteers would go off to support the Tories or BP, and the Remainers would go off to support the Lib Dems or the Greens-who would probably do even better than in the first scenario by rallying left wing remainers who have stuck by Corbyn IOTL-you could even see a handful of defections from some Labour left wingers-depending on how strong there faction is within Labour in this scenario.
I still think there wouldn't be the kind of surge in support for May or any other new Tory PM that we saw OTL-which means no snap election-so the Tories would still have a majority, but in all probability not a large enough one to get the deal passed. So in many ways, we could be in a very similar position to where we are now-a Labour Party that is trying and failing to be all things to all people-except on the economy as well as Brexit-and we have four or maybe even five parties polling within ten points of each other.
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