Yugoslavia with Nuclear weapons

The only way for Yugoslavia to go nuclear is to be able to keep the entire thing entirely hidden to both WARPAC and the Western camp long enough to develop a working device. Which is extremely tall order.
If either camp got wind of that before, their are going to politely but VERY firmly ask Belgrade to stop, or else (as happened historically). If the Yugoslav leadership refuses, I think all options are on the table. WARPAC would probably invade if nothing else works*, and NATO is probably going to let them in this scenario (that's another reason why they really, REALLY would not want things to get to that point; Soviet tanks on the Italian border are NOT a prospect the West enjoys AT ALL).
* An ultimatum mentioning the possibility of nuclear first strike if Yugoslavia does not give up should suffice, though.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Since realistic local enemies, except Albania, are basically all either NATO or WP countries, this guarantee would likely have exactly zero value (no one is going to buy "we need nukes to deter potential Albanian invasion").
A non-aligned nuclear power in Europe is not going to be allowed, period (I think this is also why Sweden dropped her military nuclear program by the way).
Or if they do get one both WP and NATO will try to get them in their respective camps
 
Or if they do get one both WP and NATO will try to get them in their respective camps
If they manage that, all bets are off. Engineered coups are a very distinct possibility. But NATO is very unlikely to countenance a WARPAC Yugoslavia, especially a nuclear one. Likewise, WARPAC would see a closely NATO aligned Yugoslavia as a major security concern.
That has chances to trigger WWIII.
 
If they manage that, all bets are off. Engineered coups are a very distinct possibility. But NATO is very unlikely to countenance a WARPAC Yugoslavia, especially a nuclear one. Likewise, WARPAC would see a closely NATO aligned Yugoslavia as a major security concern.
That has chances to trigger WWIII.

Sounds like the only option would be some sort of joint operation.
 
If somehow the Serbs launch a nuke on, say, Aviano (where US nukes are stored by the way), NATO will respond with extreme prejudice, up to and including nuking Belgrade possibly.
To which the Serbs answer by nuking Paris, London and finding a way to smuggle a nuclear bomb into New York
 
To which the Serbs answer by nuking Paris, London and finding a way to smuggle a nuclear bomb into New York

While we're at DEFCON 1 and all non-military air and cargo traffic is being halted and inspected out the wazoo, precisely because of fears someone might try to sneak a warhead in.
 
To which the Serbs answer by nuking Paris, London and finding a way to smuggle a nuclear bomb into New York

Oh yes just make the Americans switch from military targets to every population center with a Serbian majority. Not to mention what the French or British would do...
 
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Oh yes just make the Americans switch from military targets to every population center with a Serbian majority. Not to mention what the French or British would do...

Dude, Belgrade is most of serbia. Thats like destroying everything east of the missisipi and then trying to deter the remaining US from retaliating by threatening california. Even if you somehow bluffed the (surviving?) serbian government the military at the time is in the hands of intensly nationalistic fanatics who just saw their home destroyed. Any scenario that sees one nuke used is gonna see them all used.
 

JSchafer

Banned
Dude, Belgrade is most of serbia. Thats like destroying everything east of the missisipi and then trying to deter the remaining US from retaliating by threatening california. Even if you somehow bluffed the (surviving?) serbian government the military at the time is in the hands of intensly nationalistic fanatics who just saw their home destroyed. Any scenario that sees one nuke used is gonna see them all used.

That’s the equivalent of a shot criminal still reaching for his pocket despite police orders. Belgrade got nuked? Well you better exterminate all Serbs now is not a sound logic at all
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The difference is that India and Pakistan haven't yet collapsed into full-scale civil wars and ethnic/religious genocide (though there are unfortunately some people who want to see this happening).
Pakistan started developing nuclear weapons because it has just collapsed into two pieces with a full-scale civil war including ethnic genocide.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Aircraft will most likely be used alongside Luna M missiles. Low kiloton yield in any case.

Poorly. Yugoslavia was heavily dependant on foreign assistance and loans, without which it would fall appart in civil war.

Serbs may use it in 99 against Tuzla since they attempted an attack on the airport because it was used by NATO during bombing. They'd most likely threaten it's use in order to give themselves more time to finish ethnic exterminations and displacements.

They'll get isolated and turn into North Korea.
There would be zero NATO involvement in Yugoslavia. Zero. The only nations crazy enough to attack a nuclear weapons state were ultranationalist Arab and Argentinian dictatorships. The JNA will have a completely free hand to do whatever it wants within Yugoslavia. In fact, when the 1990s come around Yugoslavia is probably getting complete debt forgiveness and bundles of foreign aid just to keep it from falling apart, so there might be no war anyways.
 

JSchafer

Banned
There would be zero NATO involvement in Yugoslavia. Zero. The only nations crazy enough to attack a nuclear weapons state were ultranationalist Arab and Argentinian dictatorships. The JNA will have a completely free hand to do whatever it wants within Yugoslavia. In fact, when the 1990s come around Yugoslavia is probably getting complete debt forgiveness and bundles of foreign aid just to keep it from falling apart, so there might be no war anyways.


Seriously doubt that. If Pakistan was going trough a civil war of ethnic cleansing you bet there’d be involvement.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Seriously doubt that. If Pakistan was going trough a civil war of ethnic cleansing you bet there’d be involvement.
The last time Pakistan had a civil war of ethnic cleansing they had the full support of the United States. And that was before Pakistan had nuclear weapons. Only foreign involvement was from India, the eternal enemy that Pakistan ended up attacking pre-emptively.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Yugoslavia would be a poorer country.
Even assuming best case scenario of getting the know-how through espionage, it would cost a relevant part of the GDP.
Does Yugoslavia even have a source for Uranium?

Maybe joining up with India or be the third party in the South Africa / Israel cooperation on nuclear programmes?


While not uninteresting idea, I find it very hard to come up with a halfway plausible TL for this.
Yugoslavia was the only country to pretty much free itself from full occupation in WWII, and that legacy even scared Stalin of after Tito broke away.
 
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