Yugoslavia Lives!

[Pellegrino]

Forcing people to adopt a language different from their own cherished one is something that has a strong tendency to backfire violently and quickly in modern times, as places like Flanders and Catalonia show. Even more so in Eastern Europe. Slovenians had long fought for their language within the Austrian state against the imposition of either German and Italian. Heck, the use of Slovenian in some local schools was among the hottest political issues of the whole Hapbsurg Monarchy at the turn of the centuries. Slovenian is indisputably close to Serbo-Croatian, but it was an established literary language from before Jugoslavia even formed. Forcing Serbo-Croatian upon Slovenians would only encourage Slovenia to seek independence.

I tend to agree, but I do think that Yugoslavia could have created a seperate language to unify the various languages in the country. To be honest, Serbian, Croatian, and Bosnian are really the same language. Macedonian is really Bulgarian which is very close to Serbo-Croatian. And Slovenian is also understandable to speakers of Serbo-Croatian. Right now, everyone is trying to tear the three languages apart, but a movement could have created a generic, gulf-arabic version of the language. Not sure if it would have helped keep the country together though. I think if Slovakia and the CR couldn't work it out, Yugoslavia couldn't. Especially since Slovenia (and to a lesser extent Croatia) could clearly see that they would be much better off economically without the drain of the poorer southern republics. Had Yugoslavia tried to stay socialist, Slovenia and Croatia would be unhappy since they would be very sucessful as capitalist countries in Europe. In that scenario, the West would be helping them get free from Yugoslavia. Had Yugoslavia tried to embrace capitalism, it would have led to the natural growing pains of switching to a market economy that Slovenia and Croatia didn't really have to endure since they were better suited to join the west. In that scenario, Slovenia would be looking to bolt since they could go it alone and be a thriving economy in a year or two as opposed to being part of a broken Eastern European economy.

And as we saw in OTL, Yugoslavia in the 1990s embraced a broken form of socialism with just enough capitalism to screw the economy ever worse than if they left it alone. that led to hyper-inflation. No way Croatia or Slovenia would tolerate going through that. I think the only way Yugoslavia stays together is if Slovenia is alowed to bolt. Maybe (and a big maybe here) the rest of the union could survive in a loose confederation. Or if something happens in the early 1980s where a Serbian is able to take over the country and claim to want to rid Yugoslavia of communism (while also destroying Tito's multi-republic structure). The west might be willing to flood money into Yugoslavia then (the USA sees a cold war victory and floods the Serb government with money) and most westerners then would not really understand the significance of getting rid of the Yugoslavian republics in 1982 or 1983. But that scenario is almost ASB.

 

[Dementor]

I tend to agree, but I do think that Yugoslavia could have created a seperate language to unify the various languages in the country. To be honest, Serbian, Croatian, and Bosnian are really the same language. Macedonian is really Bulgarian which is very close to Serbo-Croatian. And Slovenian is also understandable to speakers of Serbo-Croatian. Right now, everyone is trying to tear the three languages apart, but a movement could have created a generic, gulf-arabic version of the language.

Which three languages do you mean: Serbian, Croatian, and Bosnian or Serbo-croatian, Bulgarian and Slovenian?

 

[Pellegrino]

Which three languages do you mean: Serbian, Croatian, and Bosnian or Serbo-croatian, Bulgarian and Slovenian?

Basically Serbo- Croatian with a LOT of Macedonian and Slovenian words. It's highly unlikely, but it could be a situation where it becomes the language of government while nobody speaks it on the streets (think India, where English is the language of government, a way to unify the country of a few hundred different languages). But I think it's a long shot that a new language could solve all of Yugoslavia's problems

 

[Blackfox5]

Prevention of the Yugoslav Crisis is possible even late in the day. The real driver of the breakup was economics, and the critical period was 1989/1990.

The US and the West encouraged Yugoslav to go through some wrenching economic reforms. These reforms were smart in the long term, but did not take into consideration that Yugoslavia did not have the social solidarity as a single ethnic state would have. The strain was enough to convince the northern republics they would be better off alone and not be weighed down by the less industrialized south.

If this was understood better by the US and Europe, they could have better supported Yugoslavia with loans/aid or a less aggressive reforming tact that would have created less strain in Yugoslavia. Prime Minister Markovic would have stayed in power and be able to restrain the worst of Serbian nationalism. By the mid 1990s, the general economic conditions would be improved enough that the danger of splitting would have passed. The benefits of staying together and entering the EU as a single entity would likely overcome any residual ethnic tension.

Instead of talking about Yugoslavia's break up was "inevitable", we'd all be talking about how any danger of a Yugoslavian Civil War was overblown and would be impossible in late twentieth century Europe. Certainly any idea of genocide and war crimes would be dismissed as morbid fantasy.

 

[serbrcq]

In one of the TLs that I've been tinkering with for a long time it stays together mostly because of

a) repeated invasion scares and KGB-orchestrated agitation from the Soviets that cause the political leadership to realize they need to work harder at constructing a national identity. They still don't really do so, but they ramp up the rhetoric by the 80s, and popular fear keeps people behind the government.

b) a multinational "Young Officers Movement" - led by, of all people, Slavoj Zizek - made up of soldiers from all the constituent republics who served together as military advisers during the Italian Civil War. They take over during the late 80s as events degenerate towards violent nationalism. Their ethnic diversity and the fact that they're led by a Slovenian helps reassure the peripheral republics, and the fact that they're committed socialists (and, in this TL, have plenty of liberal communist economies to trade with) prevents any IMF involvement.

This TL is a rule-of-cool one, though (it's basically a "Promise of the Sixties fulfilled" kind of thing that starts with a successful Mai 68 and goes on to have International Brigades fighting fascists in Italy and all kinds of other implausible stuff), so this might not be the best way forwards. Maybe it will give someone an idea, though.

 

[Pellegrino]

In one of the TLs that I've been tinkering with for a long time it stays together mostly because of

a) repeated invasion scares and KGB-orchestrated agitation from the Soviets that cause the political leadership to realize they need to work harder at constructing a national identity. They still don't really do so, but they ramp up the rhetoric by the 80s, and popular fear keeps people behind the government.

b) a multinational "Young Officers Movement" - led by, of all people, Slavoj Zizek - made up of soldiers from all the constituent republics who served together as military advisers during the Italian Civil War. They take over during the late 80s as events degenerate towards violent nationalism. Their ethnic diversity and the fact that they're led by a Slovenian helps reassure the peripheral republics, and the fact that they're committed socialists (and, in this TL, have plenty of liberal communist economies to trade with) prevents any IMF involvement.

This TL is a rule-of-cool one, though (it's basically a "Promise of the Sixties fulfilled" kind of thing that starts with a successful Mai 68 and goes on to have International Brigades fighting fascists in Italy and all kinds of other implausible stuff), so this might not be the best way forwards. Maybe it will give someone an idea, though.

That sounds really, really interesting. Do it! I'd like to see how it develops!

 

[serbrcq]

That sounds really, really interesting. Do it! I'd like to see how it develops!

Thanks! I'll get to it eventually, but I have to do a little research on French politics first to make sure it stays implausible and doesn't stray into ASB.

 

[warsfan]

Does it have to be a socialist Yugoslavia? Another thing would be a Royal Yugoslavia that survives WWII as a neutral, albeit an Axis cobelligerent state. Of course, a neutral but Axis leaning Yugoslavia would have to foil the coup of 1941 that was launched by General Simovic, with Prince Paul surviving as the Yugoslav king. Assuming that the Allies still win, Yugoslavia would have joined NATO and still be pro-Western but it would also butterfly the ethnic conflicts that occured. Of course, this may also result in butterflying away Kosovo's independence as well.

Would it be possible to merely delay the coup for a couple years? If it happens in, say, 1943, when Germany is fighting for its life on the Eastern Front, then it will take some time for the Nazis to organize an invasion, and by the time they do, I expect Britain and the US could land some reinforcements. With a little bit of luck, you'd get a Yugoslavia that was never conquered by anyone and ended the war a member of the allies. Heck, its entirely possible Germany might launch an invasion that gets repelled with British/US help...in which case, WWII would become a shared struggle where everyone in Yugoslavia came together to defend their nation, rather than the divisive inter-ethnic conflicts of OTL.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

The real question is, how can the coup be delayed? If possible, Royal Yugoslavia could also be a safe haven for anti-Soviet emigres who are willing to go behind German lines to get there.