Yugoslavia in longer cold war

Say the cold war lasts into the 1990s

What would be the impact on Yugoslavia

Would the Country still collapse

If so how would Nato and the Warsaw pact react
 

Bison

Banned
Good question. The Russians, perhaphs could assist the Serbs or at least install a stable government as they tried to in Afghanistan.
 
Would there even be a war? I thought that the unificated German government heavily supported the Croats to secede from Belgrade and thus indirectly supporting a war. And no USSR means the USA had an easier chance to intervene without the fear to drive Yugoslavia towards the USSR.
 
They did after Croatia already seceded

That is the problem is, if the Cold War continues then there is limited to no German support for Croatia. Odds are Croatian and Slovenian independence ends with Milosevic turning towards Moscow again for the very first time after more than 40 years.
 
Since the odds of Milosevic turning to Moscow is likely... the USA will support even Hungarians in Vojovodina let alone Croatia and/or Bosniaks.
Could the Soviets negotiation a partition of Bosnia between the Croatia and Serbia bringing both countries into the Soviet Sphere of influence ?
 
Could Croatia give the Krajina Serbs an autonomous state or after some alt-operation Storm could an agreement be reached that compensates the Serbs with Bosniak territory ?

Croatia will never allow Krajina to be lost without a fight. Any government that does it will lose all credibility. In a country as Croatia those who agree with it should leave the country for safety.
 
Since the odds of Milosevic turning to Moscow is likely... the USA will support even Hungarians in Vojovodina let alone Croatia and/or Bosniaks.

In OTL, the US was doing everything it could to not be involved in Yugoslavia. I suspect, like Romania, Yugoslavia would be a mess the US would actually be pushing for the Soviets to hold the can on.

In OTL of course, by the time Ceausescu fell, the Soviets were done holding cans, but even in a continuing Cold War, where the Soviets are still intervening militarily in Eastern Europe, I'm not sure the Soviets would want to be involved in Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia isn't in either block, so someone going in could destabilize Europe, but no-one intervening and allowing a civil war to rage would destabilize Europe even worse, it's pretty clear by the mid-80s that it was heading for bad places so the two super-powers could end up in a behind-the-scenes tussle to decide who has to go in... If anyone goes in.

It could be that Yugoslavia ends up being the first real UN intervention in decades, or non-aligned nations are pulled in to help contain things, or Western Europeans act without US or Soviet explicit blessing, or Western Europe intervenes with some of the East European satellites also cooperating, or the two superpowers try to do a joint operation, or no-one does anything, or even worse, people do things in a half-hearted way that just makes everything worse like a European version of the Syrian civil war.

Or the US or the Soviets end up intervening alone. I'd say the Soviets are slightly more likely to be forced to go in. I do think any move would be forced though. The people in Moscow would have to be crazy to go in thinking it was a good idea. No, if they go it'll be like Afghanistan, where they see no good outcomes but are convinced that doing nothing will be even worse.

Of course, it could be that in a Cold War situation, both superpowers would have an interest in just continuing to loan Yugoslavia money if only they don't explode today.

In OTL, the collapse of the Soviet Union meant that the US and Western Europe suddenly had much less incentive to support Yugoslavia economically (which they had been doing before, quite substantially), and the Yugoslavs lost some of their most important trading partners to economic collapse.

I need to study Yugoslavia more, but so far, everything I've read is that continued support from the outside could only buy time, and that the politics inside the country was so poisonous (on a structural level) that absent extremely radical changes, things would explode eventually, so I doubt that external powers could buy off Yugoslavia's problems for long enough for real change to be thought up and implemented inside the country.

fasquardon
 
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