Yugoslavia break-up moved 10 years earlier

Most likely outcome of Yugoslavia breaking apart in 1980 would be... (multiple answers allowed)

  • Soviet intervention for greater good

    Votes: 9 27.3%
  • Soviet intervention for even more chaos

    Votes: 14 42.4%
  • NATO intervention for greater good

    Votes: 1 3.0%
  • NATO intervention for even more chaos

    Votes: 2 6.1%
  • Spontaneous World War III, no more, no less

    Votes: 1 3.0%
  • Joint East-West humanitarian relief operation

    Votes: 4 12.1%
  • Peaceful dissolution with no one interfering

    Votes: 2 6.1%
  • Moderate politics finally prevail and Yugoslavia continues to exist in form of confederacy or union

    Votes: 2 6.1%
  • Balkan nations are permitted to decimate each other 'ad libitum'

    Votes: 6 18.2%
  • Warsaw Pact gets scared by nationalists a lot and no revolutions of 1989 happens ever after

    Votes: 5 15.2%
  • Timeline described below is impossible

    Votes: 4 12.1%

  • Total voters
    33
  • Poll closed .

iVC

Donor
What if the break-up events of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia took place ten years earlier?

1972 Croatian Spring goes and gets suppressed as it was in OTL.
1974 Yugoslav Constitution gets confirmed as it was in OTL and Yugoslav collective government became founded.

Main POD is that Josip Broz Tito died ITTL in 1975, not in 1980 as it was in OTL.

Next events are like our-TL but take place much more quickly:
-- Post-Tito collective head of state brings discredit upon oneself much alike OTL Yugoslavian government but much more quickly. Quarrels upon the order of rotating of the members on the leading position became obvious and unhidden by autumn of 1976 already.
-- Protests in Kosovo occurs in 1977, not in 1981 as it was IOTL.
-- Serbian hothead nationalism begins to fire up
-- Some political figure like Alexandar Rankovic or Dobrica Cosic became 'Milosevic-of-70s', proclaims serbian nationalism openly and begins demanding the reductions in the autonomy of non-Serbian parts of Federal Republic.
-- Party crisis ensues
-- Kosovo Polje Speech happens in 1979, not in 1989 (by Rankovic, Cosic or whoever became the figurehead of serbian nationalist agenda)
-- Franjo Tudman and other croatian hotheads begins to rise up using the Croatian independence movement
-- Slovenia is concerned
-- Everyone are concerned
-- Local militia units starts to pillage the army depots, population takes up arms quietly...
-- And by the year 1980 the entire Republic is looking like petrol-moistened firewood...

What would NATO think about it?
What would USSR and Warsaw Pact prepare for?
How much upset would Italy, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria be?
 
Last edited:

James G

Gone Fishin'
No matter what, NATO wouldn't intervene. The purpose of the alliance, before it evolved in the post Cold War, was purely defensive. Yugoslavia, even if Yugoslavia didn't want to be, was recognised as in the Soviet sphere of influence.
 
Breakup of Yugoslavia would be seen in Moscow as bad example for nations of USSR. So Soviet intervention and totall vassalization of Yugoslavia. Serbian dominated government would not be able to keep power without help from Moscow. OTOH NATO would do nothing until fall of SU. So 10 years more for ethnic cleasings.
 
IMHO, without end of Cold War, any major dissent in the country get's squashed by the UDBA/JNA. And nobody lifts a finger, because neutral/non-aligned Yugoslavia was good for both sides in the Cold War.
 

iVC

Donor
without end of Cold War, any major dissent in the country get's squashed by the UDBA/JNA.

I seriously doubt the multinational JNA would be able to lethally squash nationalistic riots in Serbia, Bosnia or Croatia without being mind-splitted and terrorised by inner nationalistic struggle.
 
Yugoslavia had a lot of contacts to the outside world in the form of seasonal quest workers and diaspora communities.
Thus the OTL events were very much results of (and reactions to) the events of the rest of Eastern Europe. They cannot be isolated from one another and expect an OTL result.
For starters, the Western governments would still see it beneficial to prop up Yugoslav economy with cheap loans in a 1980s situations, the call for democratic elections wouldn't simply be there without the reforms and turmoil elsewhere in the continent, and so on.
 
I suspect a Prague Spring on steroids, where Warsaw Pact gets involved to "maintain peace". Yugoslavia is probably broken up to the constituent republics, but the Soviets make sure they are all Moscow-sponsored Communists. They formally all join the WP, but fighting goes on, being a constant drag on the resoirces of the WP in general and the Soviets in particular. Albania will be on the fence, given Hoxha's paranoia and their ambitions to get more Albanians inside their borders. Hungary and Bulgaria might be allowed to occupy territories with their respective nationalities, but only if things really spiral out of control.

A very interesting idea altogether, would read.
 

Anchises

Banned
What if the break-up events of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia took place ten years earlier?

1972 Croatian Spring goes and gets suppressed as it was in OTL.
1974 Yugoslav Constitution gets confirmed as it was in OTL and Yugoslav collective government became founded.

Main POD is that Josip Broz Tito died ITTL in 1975, not in 1980 as it was in OTL.

Next events are like our-TL but take place much more quickly:
-- Post-Tito collective head of state brings discredit upon oneself much alike OTL Yugoslavian government but much more quickly. Quarrels upon the order of rotating of the members on the leading position became obvious and unhidden by autumn of 1976 already.
-- Protests in Kosovo occurs in 1977, not in 1981 as it was IOTL.
-- Serbian hothead nationalism begins to fire up
-- Some political figure like Alexandar Rankovic or Dobrica Cosic became 'Milosevic-of-70s', proclaims serbian nationalism openly and begins demanding the reductions in the autonomy of non-Serbian parts of Federal Republic.
-- Party crisis ensues
-- Kosovo Polje Speech happens in 1979, not in 1989 (by Rankovic, Cosic or whoever became the figurehead of serbian nationalist agenda)
-- Franjo Tudman and other croatian hotheads begins to rise up using the Croatian independence movement
-- Slovenia is concerned
-- Everyone are concerned
-- Local militia units starts to pillage the army depots, population takes up arms quietly...
-- And by the year 1980 the entire Republic is looking like petrol-moistened firewood...

What would NATO think about it?
What would USSR and Warsaw Pact prepare for?
How much upset would Italy, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria be?

Really interesting idea!

I can see a lot of butterflies...

Lets first look at the Superpowers:

SU: Brezhnev is still in control. The added stress of a Yugoslavian break up might accelarate his health problems but that is something the individual author of a timeline would have to decide.

Solidarity is becoming real problematic in Poland in 1980 but Brezhnev decides not to intervene.(OTL)
With a crisis in Yugoslavia this might change. I could see large scale military actions in Poland and Yugoslavia to avoid the impression of widespread instability in the socialist world. Sure Yugoslavia was no soviet satellite but it was still part of the wider socialist world and deep in the soviet sphere of influence.

So we have a lot of potential outcomes here.

-Brezhnev still "goes soft" and is ousted by hardliners.
-Brezhnev has an earlier stroke because of added stress.
-The soviets intervene in Yugoslavia and/or Poland.

A soviet intervention in Yugoslavia would be messy. I doubt that the Soviet military would have been able to fight ethnic violence and terrorism without resorting to harsh punitive violence. It would have been similiar to Afghanistan probably. Also I could see a faster Soviet collapse if they have to finance additional military actions Poland and Yugoslavia.

USA:
Reagan would probably use the "evident failure of socialism" on his campaign trail. He might support Croatain/anti-svoeit/anti-serbian rebells with weapons if he is elected.

Europe:
Large peace demonstrations and stronger objections against a renewed arms race. A war on european soil would be a huge boost for peace movements.
 
I seriously doubt the multinational JNA would be able to lethally squash nationalistic riots in Serbia, Bosnia or Croatia without being mind-splitted and terrorised by inner nationalistic struggle.


In a situation where both superpowers still think that Yugoslavia that isn't on other side is useful for them, I have no doubt that JNA and UDBA would break any resistance. Neither would the resistance be so strong, in such circumstances. Especially after breakdown of Croatian Spring. I seriously doubt that Army would be needed at all. Militsia and UDBA would be enough.
 
Not going to happen. Yugoslavia is useful to both sides in the Cold War and would be propped up by financial support if necessary. And I don't see the nationalists getting much support abroad or encouragement from the collapse of Communism elsewhere, so it would not be especially difficult for the Yugoslav security service to deal with them.

No matter what, NATO wouldn't intervene. The purpose of the alliance, before it evolved in the post Cold War, was purely defensive. Yugoslavia, even if Yugoslavia didn't want to be, was recognised as in the Soviet sphere of influence.
This is completely untrue. Yugoslavia was considered part of the non-aligned movement, but had close relations with the West - arguably better than with the Soviets and had even been offered to join NATO at one point. For these reasons, it's also inconceivable that the Soviets would actually attempt an intervention there.
 
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