Yugoslavia anno 2007?

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A crazy idea, but we might need something like this:

The Italian party system disintegrates earlier, a right-wing government including the neofascists comes to power. Yugoslavia fears that Italy might take too much advantage if it falls apart, so the Slovens and Croats stay nolens volens together with the Serbs.

It might also help if in Germany Oskar Lafontaine is elected in 1990, since the Kohl-Genscher government acknowledged Slovenia and Croatia. However, this will be difficult - Kohl was seen as the maker of German unity, and Lafontaine is too much on the left side. So unless there's a scandal right before election (Kohl talks with Lambsdorff about the question that taxes will have to be raised after election, which they promised they wouldn't, and forgetting that the microphone is on), no chance.

Yes, I see it like that - a threat from outside could help to keep the country together. Esp. in a time when everything changes.
 

MrHola

Banned
Is this plausible?

1987: Central Comittee of Communist League of Serbia holds its 8th
Session. Nationalist faction led by Slobodan Milosevic is defeated
 
since the Kohl-Genscher government acknowledged Slovenia and Croatia.

This was crucial in my mind. I think if other countries, maybe with proper advice from experts that know the region convince the Germans not to recognise Slovenia as independent then this might halt things. The EU then offers lots of cash incentives and early entry into the EU to try and keep Yugoslavia together. The various (hyper-)nationalists were initially viewed by most Yugoslavs as a nutty fringe, remember.
 
The Minister of Defence General Kadijevic [1] was in a position to legally impose a martial law in 1991. In doing so he would have played a role similar to that of General Jaruzelski in 1981 Poland [2]. Jaruzelski (arguably) prevented a Soviet intervention and created space for peaceful maturation of the democratic processes.

(Future historians would have argued whether there really had been a danger of civil war.)

How things might have developed from that point onwards? You might look for helpful examples at Slovakia, China, Russia...

Interestingly, Yugoslavia had its highest GDP [3] in 1991.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veljko_Kadijević

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wojciech_Jaruzelski

[3] per capita or not, I'm not sure
 

abc123

Banned
This was crucial in my mind. I think if other countries, maybe with proper advice from experts that know the region convince the Germans not to recognise Slovenia as independent then this might halt things. The EU then offers lots of cash incentives and early entry into the EU to try and keep Yugoslavia together. The various (hyper-)nationalists were initially viewed by most Yugoslavs as a nutty fringe, remember.

German recognition was of no crucial importance for independence of Croatia and Slovenia. After all, it came only after all have seen the writing on the wall or that Croatia can not be military defeated.

EU has OTL offered about 5 bln. USD for Yugoslavia, but to no avail...
The main problem in Yugoslavia was not of economic nature...

Milošević was only the manifestation of the spirit od time amongh the Serbs, so Milošević or some other serbian leader, never mind....
;)
 

abc123

Banned
The Minister of Defence General Kadijevic [1] was in a position to legally impose a martial law in 1991. In doing so he would have played a role similar to that of General Jaruzelski in 1981 Poland [2]. Jaruzelski (arguably) prevented a Soviet intervention and created space for peaceful maturation of the democratic processes.

(Future historians would have argued whether there really had been a danger of civil war.)

How things might have developed from that point onwards? You might look for helpful examples at Slovakia, China, Russia...

Interestingly, Yugoslavia had its highest GDP [3] in 1991.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veljko_Kadijević

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wojciech_Jaruzelski

[3] per capita or not, I'm not sure


LOL
LOL
LOL
General Kadijević was a Serb from Croatia, there is no chance that HE can do anything good for Yugoslavia and all nations of Yugoslavia.
Only for Greater Serbia.
;)
 
Its not that black and white. Kadijevic and most Serb army leadership were communists first and Serbs only second until shit totally hit the fan. Anyway, '91 is way too late to fix things no matter who does what.

And not having Milosvic take power in Serbia does nothing about Bosnian and Croat nationalists, nor about Kosovo being a clusterfuck since '81.

You'd have to have fully different set of people taking positions during '80es, and ones that would actually want to work on defusing the situation and national tensions.
 
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