Yugoslav Civil War in Neutral Italy TL?

You do know the Hurricane, Ik-3, Blenheim and Do-17 were all being built in Yugoslavia? And if Italy waits until 1943 Bulgaria will probably be even less inclined to join an Italian adventure not to mention that the germans (and possible Allies have sold even more modern types), Germany pretty much only had arms to trade for minerals and food
 
Not really a proof of great coesion and capacity to resist pressure



As stated i think it will be hard and the occupation will be gruesome, only that the yugoslavian armed forces don't have a change to win against an Italy who can focus all her resources on a single front and with a logistic situation more favorable. And regarding guerrilla activity, this time yugoslavian partisan will probably getting lot of less support from the allies.



When they sent troops in the URSS they will be seen as part Axis the same, and frankly if they partecipate only on the Yugoslavian campaign Churchill can cleary turn the head on the other side so to not extend the conflict if there is the change

You're vastly underestimating the Yugoslav capacity to defend in this situation, while grossly overestimating the Italian offensive capability. As said, the difference in the military equipment was not as pronounced as you state, but at any rate as a wise man once said, wars are not fought on paper but on the field of battle. And just in the 20th century, ex-Yugoslav peoples went through a series of wars on which they fought and produced much better results than they should have on paper (Serbia against A-H, Tito's partisans against the Axis, Croats and Muslims against a much superior Serbian army). With conditions in TTL as I'd outlined them in a previous post, everyone will be fighting the Italians hard. And the invasion, I suspect, would be a huge disaster for Italy.
 
You're vastly underestimating the Yugoslav capacity to defend in this situation, while grossly overestimating the Italian offensive capability. As said, the difference in the military equipment was not as pronounced as you state, but at any rate as a wise man once said, wars are not fought on paper but on the field of battle. And just in the 20th century, ex-Yugoslav peoples went through a series of wars on which they fought and produced much better results than they should have on paper (Serbia against A-H, Tito's partisans against the Axis, Croats and Muslims against a much superior Serbian army). With conditions in TTL as I'd outlined them in a previous post, everyone will be fighting the Italians hard. And the invasion, I suspect, would be a huge disaster for Italy.

Ehm Serbia don't even faced the real bulk of A-H and resulted in is army decimated in a retreat who eerly resemble the Death march of Bataan and survived only thanks to the effort of the rest of the Entente in evacuating the remaining army.
Tito partisan really had done a great work and an incredible effort, but still they had not worked alone and Croats and Muslims in the end was the USA (plus rest of europe) logistical support and weapons, plus the airstrike that permitted their complete victory.
I not understimate Yugoslavian capacity, it's just that Italy even if the last of the great power was still on an other league that Yugoslavia (who btw even if some accord is done between the Croats and Serbs plus the others this don't mean that magically all the problems are solved so some kind of friction will continue to exist and hinder any effort). Regarding equipment, yes there were spot of modern one, but the bulk was outdated, there were not enough uniform and personal equipment for all; AA gun and aircraft were an hodgepodge of various model and nationality hindering mantenaince and support, expecially when with the war goes on the capacity of get new equipment will be almost null.
And as said above, when this war happen really is important, as the italian armed forces were still on the initial phase of preparation for a major conflict so more time pass and more Italy is prepared
 
You forgot to mention that when forced to retreat the Serbian army in WW1 also faced German and Bulgarian forces but that doesnt really matter in this scenario, what does matter is the Italian failures in a series of campaigns against inferior forces in WW2.
 
Tito partisan really had done a great work and an incredible effort, but still they had not worked alone and Croats and Muslims in the end was the USA (plus rest of europe) logistical support and weapons, plus the airstrike that permitted their complete victory.

The point isn't so much about the end of the war, but more at the start - on paper, Serbs should have won within a few weeks, and we all know what a prolonged affair it ended up being and how it ended. The terrain in ex-Yugoslavia for most part is very conducive for defensive warfare, and in TTL, the Italian invasion would be a unifying factor rather a divisive one. Couple that with Italian inability to launch an offensive military operation of this magnitude with any degree of success during this time, and it doesn't really look good for Italy.
 
You forgot to mention that when forced to retreat the Serbian army in WW1 also faced German and Bulgarian forces but that doesnt really matter in this scenario, what does matter is the Italian failures in a series of campaigns against inferior forces in WW2.

What you don't to take in consideration is that failure was due to the squandering in resources in fighting various campaign at the same time (a thing that Italy was not ready, expecially against the UK) with difficult logistic and basically Mussolini don't plan haed the military campaign. In this situation Italy can put all her resource in a single military effort with easier logistic effort and with the military who already have plans for this contingency, things are a little different.
 
The point isn't so much about the end of the war, but more at the start - on paper, Serbs should have won within a few weeks, and we all know what a prolonged affair it ended up being and how it ended. The terrain in ex-Yugoslavia for most part is very conducive for defensive warfare, and in TTL, the Italian invasion would be a unifying factor rather a divisive one. Couple that with Italian inability to launch an offensive military operation of this magnitude with any degree of success during this time, and it doesn't really look good for Italy.

The unifiyng factor is not a due and i never said it will be easy for Italy or that the aftermath will not be a mess, just that the final result of the invasion was never in discussion and as said earlier there are still Bulgaria and Hungary (who in all case must be taken in count so the border must be defended) who can join the invasion. Regarding Italy military capacity in this situation see my post above
 

Esopo

Banned
What all you guys are understimating is that, unlike operations in africa, greece or offensive war on the alps, an invasion of jugoslavia was EXACTLY what the italian army was thought for. If the italians can concentrate the bulk of their forces on the eastern border, it wont be some clumsy invasion like the greek one, but a real total war.
I dont doubt that the italians will have to fight for a year or maybe two before victory, but jugoslavia wont be able to win such a conflict.
 
Again, you guys are vastly overestimating Italian offensive capability. At no point during this time did Italy demonstrate ability to conduct offensive operations of this magnitude with any degree of success, and just because Yugoslavia bordered Italy during this time would not make it an easier task. The supply lines will be very vulnerable - Yugoslavia of this time does not have a highly developed train and road network, and would have a very hard time pacifying the occupied territories to secure the supply lines (terrible as they were). Their best chance would lie in convincing Croats and probably Slovenes that they were less of a threat than Serbs, but in TTL this is almost impossible (even in OTL NDH, although nominally an ally of Italy, had a deep mistrust and dislike for the Italians).

So how does it go for Italy in this invasion? Worst-case scenario they're immediately stopped in Slovenia, best case scenario maybe they reach Dinara and Velebit ranges, but can't seem them going beyond that. In the latter scenario, maybe they hold some coastal areas they wanted and manage to annex them, but that the very best outcome they could've hope for, and far from certain.
 

No, it's you that understimate italian capacity...as said various time, yes Italy don't have made succesfull offensive operation in OTL...but here it's not a war on the desert fighting the British with the supply line consisting in convoy constantly attacked by the RN and RAF, when at the same time trying partecipate at the Battle of Britain (a little force but Italy don't have much to spare) and fight a naval and sea campagnain in the Mediterrean, and later deciding on attack Greece. Here there is only the Yugoslavian campaign, plus yes you are put some patch, easead the tension but the situation is not magically resolved and now Serbs, Croats and all the others are BFF, the tension are still there and even if a lot less pronunced, the high command of the army is still a serb social club, plus there is no possibility for the Yugoslavian to get supply as with the war goes and the unwillingness to antagonize Italy (and grant at the other side an ally) the market will be closed.
Italy as even more industrial capacity and for the nth times prevision were that by 1943 they were ready for a major conflict
 
So you are saying that the Italy will somehow perform far better against Yugoslavia than against a collapsing France? Even as Yugoslavia was collapsing in OTL it still successfully attacked into Albania and the Italian forces in Northern Albania were saved by the Germans. Before you say that this was because of the Greeks these were trying to disengage to free forces to defend against the Germans.

I am also curious about why the Germans would give up its sole source of Zinc, its main supplier of Copper, Antimony and Bauxite to placate a neutral Italy?


BTW perhaps we should split this into a new topic
 
So you are saying that the Italy will somehow perform far better against Yugoslavia than against a collapsing France? Even as Yugoslavia was

Yes, as this time terrain is a lot more favorable for an attack and Italian armed forces are really planning for a war with Yugoslavia from a lot; the attack on France was an hastily done things due to Benny fear to be left out of the negotiationg table


collapsing in OTL it still successfully attacked into Albania and the Italian forces in Northern Albania were saved by the Germans. Before you say that this was because of the Greeks these were trying to disengage to free forces to defend against the Germans.

Still there are a little problem to redeploy troops in Albania, plus yes it was a succesfull attack but of limited scope, limited gain and in no way really menaced italian position in Albania


I am also curious about why the Germans would give up its sole source of Zinc, its main supplier of Copper, Antimony and Bauxite to placate a neutral Italy?

Because Italy is a greater economic patner and (one of the premise i stated earlier for an invasion) will assure that material will flow as usual, and frankly Yugoslavia were not much reliable from the political (of the Axis) pow
 
And how will Italy guarantee deliveries from a state they are at war with?
While the Germans would be pro-Italian in this conflict they wouldnt risk their own production for the sake of Italy, and if the Italians get troublesome a German "no coal for you" will rapidly see a change of attitude or see the Italian economy go down the drain

I also forgot to mention chrome among the minerals earlier (even if Turkey was a more important sources)
 

Esopo

Banned
So you are saying that the Italy will somehow perform far better against Yugoslavia than against a collapsing France?

Yes. French/italian border war far worse than the austrian-italian border in 1914, let alone the italian/jugoslavian one.
 
I accept that Italy is ready for war with Yugoslavia and is at an advantage, and will be at an advantage for the most of the conflict or even through its entirety but does not equate imeadiate 100% success.

Both roads of attack the Slovenian and the Albanian are through mountinius terrain that lacks adequate communications to support the advance of a mayor invasion force. Sure the Italians will hit hard and with great numbers but they will not be advancing with speed.

Croats and Serbs did not hate each other as much prior to WW II as it is sometimes portrayed. Most people were ok with each other which is clearly demonstrated by overwhelming support to the Tito's Partisans by both ethnic groups. Such people will naturally work together. The nationalists though dislinking each other will put mutual differences to face a common threat, since Italies goals were clear for all to see, pupetization of Yugoslavia and annexation of Dalmatia.

For me the question isn't can Italy win, but weather they can win fast enough for no one interween to stop the conflict or supports Yugoslavia.

My personal opinion is that Italy would need between 10-12 months to break the Yugoslav armed forces before they can start taking significant territorial gains. The question is can they sustain positive national opinion for that long and what will happen with their supply lines once the front lines move into Yugoslavia and supplies have to move through areas with hostile populations.
 
And how will Italy guarantee deliveries from a state they are at war with?

Honestly the Germans (as the italians) will think that the war will be over soon; before the DoW the italian army and air force was considered a clear menace; so it's more probably an overstimating of capability

While the Germans would be pro-Italian in this conflict they wouldnt risk their own production for the sake of Italy, and if the Italians get troublesome a German "no coal for you" will rapidly see a change of attitude or see the Italian economy go down the drain

Because Yugoslavia was not really political reliable from Hitler Pow and Italy with her dependence from coal it's more.
 
For me the question isn't can Italy win, but weather they can win fast enough for no one interween to stop the conflict or supports Yugoslavia

Support will be null, Benny before go must obtain the consent of the other power (probably the price for neutrality) and all the other nation are other problem; German can stop the conflict if it drags too much to create problem at his war effort...but this can be a very bad things as Adolf can just order to invade the rest of yugoslavia and get rid of the problem.

My personal opinion is that Italy would need between 10-12 months to break the Yugoslav armed forces before they can start taking significant territorial gains. The question is can they sustain positive national opinion for that long



National public opinion is not really a problem in a dictatorships and Benny know his move in this field, so without massive and humiliating defeat he can sustain the effort .

and what will happen with their supply lines once the front lines move into Yugoslavia and supplies have to move through areas with hostile populations]

very bad things to both the supply and the hostile populations
 
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