Yugoslav Breakup Inevitable?

[Falecius]

Would an inclusion of Bulgaria have helped?
Yugoslavia always seemed to me to be a contest between Croats and Serbs on who ran it

My understanding is that most of the time, many Croats were more interested in preventing Serbs from running the show alone than being themselves in charge.
In a sense, Yugoslavia was bound to have some degree of Serbian dominance simply because of numbers and geography, as Serbs were the most numerous single nationality AFAIK (esp. considering that for a long time Montenegrines largely indentified themselves as Serbs ).
Bulgaria was always unlikely to ever join.
You could possibly have Albania joining in the late forties (Hoxha and Tito were on very friendly terms and a federation was seriously discussed before Tito split from Moscow). That would reduce Serbian numerical dominance considerably overall, although they'd remain a plurality I think (did not check).
A possible consequence could be a larger Albania including some Albanian majority parts of Macedonia, Kosovo and perhaps Montenegro (all of Kosovo is almost out of question) as a seventh republic in a somewhat looser arrangement from the start. Or maybe Albania gets split into a Gheg and Tosk republics, but I see such an outcome unlikely.

 

[Angel Heart]

Trouble is, Tito's economy relied on three things:

a) massive US aid ( I forgot now how many billions they recieved as gift from US in 50s-70s )

b) Cold War and ability to blackmail both sides to get aid

c) using money produced by Croatia, Slovenia and Vojvodina to finance things in Serbia Proper, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro etc.

With end of Cold War, a) and b) things ended. And Croats and Slovenes were more than determined not to allow c) thing anymore.

Maybe I'm blinded by hindsight but imagine ASB would cause the post-Tito leadership to pull their heads out of their asses and recognize how unsustainable the economic model is in the long run while addressing some social grievances instead of sweeping them under the carpet while as an added bonus recognizing how idiotic this whole "after Tito comes Tito" mantra is.

Almost forgot:

The JNA (...) backed the violent VRS in Bosnia.

Little technicality: If memory serves well initial combat operations were conducted by the JNA and some Serb irregulars either from Serbia or by local Serb elements. The VRS was formed by Bosnian Serb elements the JNA left behind after withdrawing from Bosnia. A few days later the JNA itself officially dissolved.

My understanding is that most of the time, many Croats were more interested in preventing Serbs from running the show alone than being themselves in charge.
In a sense, Yugoslavia was bound to have some degree of Serbian dominance simply because of numbers and geography, as Serbs were the most numerous single nationality AFAIK (esp. considering that for a long time Montenegrines largely indentified themselves as Serbs ).

More or less. From what I understood the Serbs always saw Yugoslavia as one sovereign nation whose configuration or fate cannot be changed without the consent of all the constitutive peoples. The Slovenes and Croats saw Yugoslavia as a confederation of multiple sovereign nations who can decide for themselves. You had two interests that were in conflict with each other and deciding in favor of one of these school of thoughs, either by centralizing the state or weakening Serbia further, you'd be asking for trouble in the long run. Serbia being split in three parts (or four if you want to count Montenegro) is one the platforms with which Sloba gained so much traction. The traumatic experiences from the Yugoslav kingdom and World War II made things even more complicated.

 

[abc123]

Maybe I'm blinded by hindsight but imagine ASB would cause the post-Tito leadership to pull their heads out of their asses and recognize how unsustainable the economic model is in the long run while addressing some social grievances instead of sweeping them under the carpet while as an added bonus recognizing how idiotic this whole "after Tito comes Tito" mantra is.

Did you heard for Dejan Jović?

Read his book: Jugoslavija- država koja je odumrla.

http://www.fabrikaknjiga.co.rs/jugoslavija-drzava-koja-je-odumrla/

Intresting book. I don't agree with his main premise, or many other his ideas, but he has there pretty good summary of the most important problems of Second Yugoslavia. So, the thing is, for keeping the Second Yugoslavia, you need about 10 PODs to solve 10 main problems, and that level of PODs goes into ASB category...

 

[Angel Heart]

Did you heard for Dejan Jović?

Read his book: Jugoslavija- država koja je odumrla.

http://www.fabrikaknjiga.co.rs/jugoslavija-drzava-koja-je-odumrla/

Intresting book. I don't agree with his main premise, or many other his ideas, but he has there pretty good summary of the most important problems of Second Yugoslavia. So, the thing is, for keeping the Second Yugoslavia, you need about 10 PODs to solve 10 main problems, and that level of PODs goes into ASB category...

I never heard of him until now to be honest, though after reading the summary I will definitely try to get his book. Thanks for the tip!

 

[Expat]

So what about Bosnia, specifically? What alternate paths does it have?

Its population is mixed. Its borders are impossible. What's its best possible outcome?

Let's say that the primary indicator of "best possible outcome achieved" is no mass killings. Second, no war. Third, no population transfer. Fourth, relatively prosperous.

 

[miguelrj]

1) If Milošević has left Croatia alone and THEN started to negotiate with Tuđman about dividing the Bosnia and Herzegovina, that thing would be settled easily and no resistance from Muslims could change anything there.
Trouble for Milošević is that he wanted both parts of Croatia and whole Bosnia-Hercegovina.

Do we really know (or have solid basis to infer) the proposals that were at the table in Karađorđevo?

Given the military situation of the time, a deal where:
1) Croatia gets only the territories with relative Bosnian Croat majority contiguous to the Croatian border and gives up everything else to the Serbs;
2) Croatia is given back the control of Krajina with some sort of municipal-level autonomy for the local Serbs;
3) The several thousand Bosnian Croats that would fall under the Serbian state get the same autonomy deal.

...seems quite acceptable to both parties, no? With the support of the Croats, the Serbs get a majority to dismantle the Republic of BiH. Not "legally" but still...

Or were the Serbs already operating on a "Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line or nothing" basis?