Yuan Shikai rejects the 21 demands

What if, in 1915-1916, Yuan Shikai, “president of China” rejects the Japanese 21 Demands?

Would this effect his attempt to become as Emperor?
Would this effect his public image?
How would the Japanese respond? Would they retaliate?
Or would it end the same for Shikai and his attempt to become emperor?
 
Would this mean that China would be a de facto member of the Central Powers if Japan declares that his refusal of the demands is tantampunt to a declaration of war? The National Protection Alliance (or a similar movement) might gain Entente support here.
 
According to Duan qirui's opinion, if Japanese attacked, China would be defeated in a week.

Western countries would not be willing to step in and stop Japanese in middle of European war. Therefore, the chance of Japanese attacks could be high. Japan did sent battleships near Chinese coast.

Yuan would not declare himself an emperor if China was defeated. He would be quickly overthrown and replaced. The new warlord government would accept 21 demands in a hurry. China entered the warlord period as real time.
 
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