Yuan Shikai accepted as Emperor of China

In 1915 Yuan Shikai decided to become emperor of China but his previously loyal supporters opposed that and China was left divided and entered the warlord era once Yuan Shikai died. What if the country accepted the restoration of a monarchy and Yuan Shikai lived a little longer.
 
Hard to tell.
He ruled as a dictator, but nobody seemed to mind that until he sat on Dragon throne.
I guess to find answer one would start by figuring out why tyrant titled as president was acceptable, but tyrant titled as emperor was not.
 
This would be post-1900.

Frankly, I've always found an interesting comparison between Yuan Shikai and his contemporary Reza Shah Pahlavi in Persia. Yuan Shikai was detested and quickly overthrown whereas Reza Shah Pahlavi managed to hold onto power for him and his descendents until 1979 (and the Pahlavis still have supporters abroad!). Both came from similar backgrounds (great military leaders in a country whose glory days seemed to be behind it in the face of western imperialism), and both fought republicans to declare themselves the emperor in their place. But only Reza Shah held onto power while Yuan Shikai lost it so fast. Even more interesting that China had that pre-existing tradition of dynastic change, unlike Persia.

I'm honestly not sure why Yuan Shikai wasn't accepted unlike Reza Shah. It seems like it might've been in the Chinese mindset at the time to permanently end imperial tradition unlike Persia which may have wanted some monarchal continuance. In theory, if the right people backed Yuan, he may have been able to found a new dynasty, but China had decayed so much in the 19th century he was basically bound to fail. It isn't like China opposed dictators (see Mao not 40 years later, or the Kuomintang in Taiwan for a lesser version of that), but the fact they opposed a new monarchy shows that Yuan Shikai entered himself into a situation no one could possibly accept because of the mindset of the people. You'd have to change that mindset for Yuan Shikai to be able to succeed to the extant Reza Shah was able to.
 
Yuan lost his public support after he accepted the 21 demands from Japanese. He appeared to be weak in dealing with foreigners.

I think China would not fare much better even if Yuan had succeed. Other countries would see Yuan as a weak leader and demand similar deals from China. As a result, Japanese would accelerate their paces in taking over China, so China would not become a colony of another country.

If Yuan had postponed his proclamation to be an emperor for another 10 years, he might have a chance. He rebuilt the economy and middle class. The new middle class might support him to be an emperor.
 
It seems like it might've been in the Chinese mindset at the time to permanently end imperial tradition
Can Chinese republicanism be avoided entirely?

The Qing are overthrown to be replaced with another dynasty instead of the republic experiment?
 
Can Chinese republicanism be avoided entirely? The Qing are overthrown to be replaced with another dynasty instead of the republic experiment?

You can't avoid it entirely by 1900, but you could theoretically direct it towards a more reformist, Han-Chinese nationalist path where the Son of Heaven is retained as a popular figurehead.

It is far from impossible, but a lot of things will have to happen on a same time. The monarchist reformist supporters will have to be able to mobilize their respective supporters on a right time and much better than in OTL, Qing will have to fall earlier while being totally discredited in the eyes of the Powers during the first years of the 1900s. At the same time the still-small republican movement will have to have a different set of leaders than in OTL.

And you'll have to also have a conservative faction that is willing to put Son of Heaven into a similar ceremonial position as the Japanese Emperor to support their own political goals. This group must to be strong enough to enforce their will upon the still nominally unified empire and crush the Manchu resistance. To do this, they'll need support from the military, middle-class bureaucracy of the conservative literati, and the peasant masses, as well as approval from the Powers.

As I see it, the Southern viceroys who opted to remain neutral during the Boxer Rebellion in 1900 are the only group that has the necessary influence and power to bring a new Han-Chinese dynasty around. This is also the last time in Chinese history when such a change could happen, as the fate of all latter attempts of monarchical restorations show.

And yes, as it happens this course of events is part of my current TL :rolleyes:
 
This would be post-1900.

Frankly, I've always found an interesting comparison between Yuan Shikai and his contemporary Reza Shah Pahlavi in Persia. Yuan Shikai was detested and quickly overthrown whereas Reza Shah Pahlavi managed to hold onto power for him and his descendents until 1979 (and the Pahlavis still have supporters abroad!). Both came from similar backgrounds (great military leaders in a country whose glory days seemed to be behind it in the face of western imperialism), and both fought republicans to declare themselves the emperor in their place. But only Reza Shah held onto power while Yuan Shikai lost it so fast. Even more interesting that China had that pre-existing tradition of dynastic change, unlike Persia.

I'm honestly not sure why Yuan Shikai wasn't accepted unlike Reza Shah. It seems like it might've been in the Chinese mindset at the time to permanently end imperial tradition unlike Persia which may have wanted some monarchal continuance. In theory, if the right people backed Yuan, he may have been able to found a new dynasty, but China had decayed so much in the 19th century he was basically bound to fail. It isn't like China opposed dictators (see Mao not 40 years later, or the Kuomintang in Taiwan for a lesser version of that), but the fact they opposed a new monarchy shows that Yuan Shikai entered himself into a situation no one could possibly accept because of the mindset of the people. You'd have to change that mindset for Yuan Shikai to be able to succeed to the extant Reza Shah was able to.
I'm not sure about Reza Shah,but the Yuan Shikai doesn't seem to have done jack sh#t to deserve being emperor.This is just my perspective.I think it would be better if he was actually a war hero or actively opposed the Qing before the revolution.As it was,his image is like someone who has betrayed one party over another repeatedly.I think it would be a totally different story if Yuan launched a coup much earlier before the revolution and declared himself emperor.He might be more accepted if he did so.Another thing is that you need to stop Yuan Shikai's subordinates from having ideas of their own.The guys believed that they could be loyal to Yuan himself but not to his descendants,and IIRC they thought that under the republican system,they will eventually be president themselves.
 
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