Your ideas on the contents of a mild Versailles

Terlot

Banned
To be honest, I can see only possibility in Germany keeping Gdańsk and League of Nations-administrated railway and road connection to East Prussia when it comes to territorial changes.



Poland has surived fine for centuries without Silesia.
Partitions of Poland show otherwise, don't they ? ;)
Poland did well in time when power was based on agriculture, but in industrial age it needed coal, iron, and other resources it lacked. Fortunetely those were located on areas-where as you yourself noted Polish majority was located.
German leadership helps defuse their ethnic conflicts
German ideas on their supremacy in Central and Eastern Europe envisioned using ethnic conflicts to rule it.



There was nothing really bad for Europe from a Weimar Germany peaceful poltical-economic hegemony on Central and Eastern Europe. Economically, socially, and culturally was a pinnacle of European development.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...g=content;col1
The German government utilized a variety of devices to hamper the growth of Polish economic power. These included regulations preventing Poles from trading in coal, grain, and fodder, or subdividing farmland obtained through inheritance. Local officials tried to prevent graduates from Polish schools from entering skilled trade apprentice programs, denied Polish professionals the licenses required to work in their fields, organized boycotts of Polish establishments, and pressured Poles to cancel their memberships in Polish cooperatives.

nothing really bad eh ? As long as Poles are not Europeans...:rolleyes:


has (and/or is going to have soon) plenty of industrial and resource centers in the Lodz, Radom-Lublin, and Krakow-Tarnow areas that ensure its welfare without need of German Upper Silesia.
Poland didn't demand German Upper Silesia-there were no demands there as you can see on the map. But you are also wrong about industrial center and resources. Polish Upper Silesia contained around 60% of Polish industry.
This map shows an example:

SilesiaResources.jpg
 

General Zod

Banned
A possible partition of West Prussia according to the assumption that all Slav-majority districts would vote for Poland. Actually, it is rather likely that at least some of them would vote to stay in Germany, which might most likely to turn the Polish area in an enclave, but we might assume that the Allied arbitrators would compromise with the results to give Poland an unrestricted access to the Baltic. Southern East Prussia goes to Germany according to the OTL plebiscite returns.

mwwe84.jpg
 

General Zod

Banned
On the other hand, making a rather plausible assumption on how the results would turn out in some Slav majority districts that were close to German-majority ones, the way the latter clustered on the Vistula basin, and if the final arbitrate heeds them without adjusting to give Poland an unresticted access to the sea, it is quite possible that Poland would only get an enclave in West Prussia.

5u1u7a.jpg
 
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Terlot

Banned
On the other hand, making a rather plausible assumption on how the results would turn out in some Slav majority districts that were close to German-majority ones,
Why are writing Slav instead of Polish and Kashubian districts-they were no other significient slavic groups in the area.
Upon what do you claim your "plausible assumption" ?
 

General Zod

Banned
Why are writing Slav instead of Polish and Kashubian districts-they were no other significient slavic groups in the area.

I'm lazy and writing Slav is easier than writing Polish-Kashubian. :p

Upon what do you claim your "plausible assumption" ?

Upon the fact that Germany got a rather better result on both the Upper Silesian and Southern Prussian plebiscites than it might be expected on the basis of ethnic distribution alone. Demonstrably, a substantial number of Poles, Silesians, etc. voted to stay in Germany, for various reasons. It is only reasonable to expect that a substantial number of West Prussian Poles and Kashubians would follow that pattern, and this may easily change the outcome especially in districts where Slav majorty was not strong to begin with and are often close to German-majority ones. Since the latter most often clustered along the Vistula basin, it is a reasonable assumption that the phenomenon above could lead to the districts on the Berlin-Torun axis to form a roughly continuity with East Prussia and cut off the Polish enclave in northern West Prussia. or if your prefer, this line looks close enough to completion that the Allied arbitrators give up the continous Polish Corridor as a lost cause and focus on giving Poland an extraterritorial road and railway access for the Polish enclave and Danzig.
 
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General Zod

Banned
A new draft:

Most likely PoD: A different US Administration, more concerned to achieve a sustainable peace settlement in Europe and less focused on idealistic internationalist schemes, makes a common front with Britain and Italy at the Versailles Conference. The three Powers overrule French demands for a harsh peace settlement for the Central Powers.

- Germany cedes Alsace-Lorraine to France and Posen to Poland. A demilitarized zone is established in Rhineland.

- German colonies are ceded to France and Britain.

- Italy annexes South Tyrol, Kustenland, and Dalmatia, it gets a protectorate over Albania.

- Malmedy goes to Belgium after a plebiscite

- North Schleswig goes to Denmark after a plebiscite.

- Germany keeps Eupen and Saar after a plebiscite. France and Belgium are guaranteed the equivalent of the Saar coal output from all German mines for 20 years.

- The Sudetenland is joined with Austria. A confederation between Germany and Austria is established, with a customs union, free movement of citizens, and a common currency. After ten years, if the Allied Powers judge that Germany and Austria have complied adequately with the treaties, a plebiscite shall be allowed on full union between Austria and Germany (which gets an overwhelming approval). A demilitarized zone shall be established in North Tyrol and the Sudetenland after the union with Germany. German military cannot be increased in size as a result of the union.

- Hungary keeps western Crisana, northern Transylvania, northern Vojvodina, southern Slovakia, and southern Carpathian Ruthenia.

- Southern Dobruja goes to Bulgaria after a plebiscite.

- District-by-district plebiscites are held in East Prussia, West Prussia, and Upper Silesia. After their outcome, and arbitration by the Allied powers, Germany keeps East Prussia, Danzig and Memel. Upper Silesia is partitioned according to the Percival-De Marinisa line (Germany keeps all the industrial region). Poland gets a large enclave in northern West Prussia, but Germany keeps a sizable land corridor in southern West Prussia which links Pomerania with East Prussia. Poland gets the right to build extraterritorial railways and highways to connect the Polish Enclave with the rest of Poland.

- The Danzig, Memel, and German West Prussia areas are occupied by Entente troops for ten years in order to guarantee the free and unrestricted passage of Polish and Lithuanian trade. Poland and Lithuania get the right to use these ports for their goods without any tariffs and to move them to and from their territory by means of extraterritorial railways and highways. After ten years, if Germany has complied adequately with the free transit regime, Entente troops shall be withdrawn.

- Lithuania is given the option to annex the Vilnius and Suwalki regions if it agrees to enter a confederation with Poland, with a common currency, military, foreign policy, and a customs union. The compact is narrowly accepted in a plebiscite.

- Estonia and Latvia form a confederation, with a common currency, military, foreign policy, and a customs union.

- Aaland Islands go to Sweden in exchange for Swedish support for Finnish annexation of East Karelia.

- Germany, Austria, and Hungary acknowledge that Britain, France, Belgium, Italy, and the USA bear no guilt for the war.

- Germany keeps sovereignty over its rivers, and ownership of its patents.

- Reparations owed by Germany are set at a total of $28 billion marks, to be paid over a period of 60 years. The annual payment, set at about $480 million, is divided into two elements—an unconditional part (one third of the sum) and a postponable part (the remainder).

Issues left to be defined: size of German military, peace treaty with Turkey.
 
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Tellus

Banned
Here's a draft:

- Germany cedes Alsace-Lorraine to France and North Schelswig to Danmark, on ground of self-determination of these populations.

- Eupen-Malmedy stays German. No border change with Belgium.

- Poland in the East to consist mainly of Austrian and Russian lands, but to include Lithuania, within a federal structure. They get very little German land; only the Posen areas that were unquestionably Polish demographically. Germany thus retains Silesia, Danzig, and the Corridor.

- Germany agrees to "recognize, respect, and enforce" the new Polish borders, and it's access to sea; both a plea to defend it against Soviet agression and an implicit threat to "make happen" the federation with Lithuania if necessary, or prepare to cede some of it's own land.

- Estonia and Latvia are encouraged to also join in a federation of their own.

- Austria keeps the Sudetenland and Slovenia, and establishes a limited protectorate over Bohemia and northern Slovakia, which are both to benefit from considerably autonomy within an Austrian trade and defense pact. The northernmost parts of South Tyrol stays Austrian, and Italy gets some more Dalmatian coast instead. The Treaty prohibits Austria's political union with Germany for 15 years, and creates no mechanism to facilitate such a union in the future. Entente negotiators hope that Austria in this form will be strong enough and sufficiently incensitivized to stay independent. The treaty does not explicitly prohibit a customs union, however.

- Hungary gets western Crisana, North Transsylvania, Backa and southern Slovakia.

- The provisos regarding disarmament and demilitarized lands are both softer (smaller demilitarized zone, 300,000 men army, Germany can retain a limited Navy - and sell the balance, instead of turning it over -, no destruction of installations required), and time-limited. It is understood that in 15 years, Germany will regain will sovereignty in these matters, largely because everyone agrees that more is unenforceable.

- Permanant interdiction of poison gas and Germany accepts a 1:3 Naval ratio with Britain following the end of the demilitarization period. Ratio also applies to submarine forces.

- Germany loses it's pacific colonies, as well as German SW Africa to South Africa. It retains Togo, German West Africa, and German East Africa, but must allow Britain to build it's Cape-to-Cairo railroad across it's territory.

- Temporary 20% "tax" on German coal output for 15 years, to be split by France and Belgium to cover some of the rebuilding costs, instead of the occupation of the Saar.

- This goes along with much smaller war reparations - around 25% of historical levels. Reparations are allowed to be stretched over a period of time left that Germany thinks feasible. Reparations are tied to gold, so that inflationary policies or passage of time would have little impact on their overall value.

- Patents are settled on a case-by-case basis, whereas the Entente gains the possibility to give some critical patents precedence over overlapping German counterparts, but only by compensating Germany through reductions of their war reparations. Non-overlapping patents stays German.

- Absolutely no forced internationalization of rivers, nor any "buy Entente first" policies.

- No specific mention of German "war guilt". All parties "reflect on the tragic loss of life in the Great War and pledge to mediate disputes without recourse to war through the League of Nations in the future."

- Mention however of the "terrible role" played by "absolutist monarchs" in letting the "crisis escalate" as a preamble to the article demanding that Germany, Austria and Hungary chooses and adopt "fair, representative and republican" governmental systems in the interests of their own peoples. The wording leaves the door open to future British-style Constitutional Monarchies, but not to absolutist rule. (And "Absolutist Monarchs", instead of "absolutist monarchies", shift the blame to individuals instead of states)

- Should Germany fail to respect it's part of the deal, all the provisions meant to expire after 15 years would become permanent, subject to review by the League of Nations.

- Germany, Austria and Hungary immediately joins the League of Nations as full members.

- "Consultative" and non-binding plebsicites to legitimize the land-swaps are organized in areas that are to change hands, but all sides undestand that these are mainly for the gallery. No plebsicites occur in regions where the result would be in doubt or that have not already been slated for transfer. Its hard enough crafting a decent treaty without the plebs screwing with stuff. (I'm looking at you, Lisbon treaty. :D)

It's pretty mild, and enshrined in a "spirit of peace and reconciliation of the peoples of Europe". A POD could be a slightly earlier end to the war following successful contacts in which Germany got key allied leaders to promise "clemency and generosity" if Germany surrendered "while it was still time" and if the Kaiser stepped down on it's own.
 
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Tellus

Banned
What are you referring at ??? :confused::confused:

North Schleswig, probably. But the answer would be that it was so throughly Danish ethnically, that Hitler didn't even bother to annex it back into the Reich 20 years later.

One could argue that OTL's settlement of the Danish-German border was already fair, and mild. Ultras wanted South Schleswig to go Danish as well, and once it became clear that Danemark itself didnt want it, the new border on that front essentially became acceptable to everyone.
 

General Zod

Banned
Here's a draft:

Tellus, I'm pleased that most of our drafts are broadly compatible. There are some ideas of yours I can borrow, and some that I have to reject as too unplausible.

- Germany cedes Alsace-Lorraine to France and North Schelswig to Danmark, on ground of self-determination of these populations.

And Posen to Poland.

- Eupen-Malmedy stays German. No border change with Belgium.

Unlikely since at least Malmedy has a local French-speaking majority and belgium is likely to claim a plebiscite successfully, which Germany shall lose.

- Poland in the East to consist mainly of Austrian and Russian lands, but to include Lithuania, within a federal structure. They get very little German land; only the Posen areas that were unquestionably Polish demographically. Germany thus retains Silesia, Danzig, and the Corridor.

Hmm, I'm not sure about this. Is it plausible for France to be overruled that much, as to completely deny plebiscites in Silesia and West Prussia ? The Germanophile me would really like to say yes, but here you (we) risk to be skinned alive by the Polish rabid nationalist... err, righteous patriots :p of the board. ;):rolleyes: (Him, him. Not me, him).

What abotu the idea of a Polish extraterritorial access to Danzig, and a time-limited Entente military presence in Danzig and West Prussia to ensure German compliance ? This would greately improve Polish reluctant acceptance of the treaty.

- Germany agrees to "recognize, respect, and enforce" the new Polish borders, and it's access to sea; both a plea to defend it against Soviet agression and an implicit threat to "make happen" the federation with Lithuania if necessary, or prepare to cede some of it's own land.

Well, if they can keep all of Silesia and West Prussia, I see no problem with that pledge. Only the most radical German nationalist fringe wanted Posen (or Alsace-Lorraine) back.

- Austria keeps the Sudetenland and Slovenia, and establishes a limited protectorate over Bohemia and northern Slovakia, which are both to benefit from considerably autonomy within an Austrian trade and defense pact. The northernmost parts of South Tyrol stays Austrian, and Italy gets some more Dalmatian coast instead. The Treaty prohibits Austria's political union with Germany for 15 years, and creates no mechanism to facilitate such a union in the future. Entente negotiators hope that Austria in this form will be strong enough and sufficiently incensitivized to stay independent. The treaty does not explicitly prohibit a customs union, however.

Most of this is completely unfeasible. The Czech can be bullied to give up Sudetenland, but they are not going to compromise their own independence to Austria in any form again, for nothing less of Entente armed occupation, and avoiding the Anschluss is not worth the effort. Likewise, Italy is not going to give up South Tyrol and a defensible border, either, and the only realistic way to have a mild Versailles treaty is if UK, USA, and Italy make a common front against France, which means Italian claims must find more, not less, satisfcation than IOTL.

Independent Austria was not salvageable in any form after WWI, and the Anschluss can be only deferred and loaded with qualifications, not stopped indefinitely. Better to accept this reality and prepare for it in a way that minimizes the danger for the Entente powers, hence writing the demilitarizated Tyrol and military limitation clausles in the Treaty. The confederal customs-monetary union is something that is goign to happen on its own very soon. I agree that enlarging the forbidden period from 10 to 15 years may make sense (anyway, in all likelihood a reduction is renegotiated during the 1920s).

- Hungary gets western Crisana, North Transsylvania, Backa and southern Slovakia.

Full agreement with this.

- The provisos regarding disarmament and demilitarized lands are both softer (smaller demilitarized zone, 300,000 men army, Germany can retain a limited Navy - and sell the balance, instead of turning it over -, no destruction of installations required), and time-limited. It is understood that in 15 years, Germany will regain will sovereignty in these matters, largely because everyone agrees that more is unenforceable.

Hmm, I'd say that France, which is a loser about all the rest, is going to stick on keeping demilitarized zone as big as IOTL. I'm not entirely sure about keeping the army limits and the demilitarized zone time-limited, either. Why not making such terms nominally permanent, but allow the 1:3 naval ratio (maybe initially lower, 1/4 or 1/5) from the start, and allow an escape clausle that Germany can expand its amry further with the permission of the Allied Powers (say if German manpower is necessary to contain the Soviets ?). Anyway, all those limits are going to be renegotiated in the 1920s and 1930s. Maybe a built-in renegoriation clausle in 20-25 years, to make them compliant with the post-Anschluss limits (Italy shall want them) ?

- Permanant interdiction of poison gas and Germany accepts a 1:3 Naval ratio with Britain following the end of the demilitarization period. Ratio also applies to submarine forces.

I see no problems with a permanet limit on poison gas. As for the Navy, see above. Maybe a 1:20 or 1:25 initial ratio, which gets lincreased to 1:3 after 15 years ?

- Germany loses it's pacific colonies, as well as German SW Africa to South Africa. It retains Togo, German West Africa, and German East Africa, but must allow Britain to build it's Cape-to-Cairo railroad across it's territory.

Hmm, no. Much like loss of A-L or Posen, loss of colonies was only decried by the most radical nationalist fringe in Germany. We can safely leave this as IOTL and make South Africa much happier.

- Temporary 20% "tax" on German coal output for 15 years, to be split by France and Belgium to cover some of the rebuilding costs, instead of the occupation of the Saar.

Glad to see we agree on this. :D

- This goes along with much smaller war reparations - around 25% of historical levels. Reparations are allowed to be stretched over a period of time left that Germany thinks feasible. Reparations are tied to gold, so that inflationary policies or passage of time would have little impact on their overall value.

My own idea was to use Plan Young totals and payment schedule. The amount you give would be roughly double that. Not entirely sure it is still sustainable. Agreed about tying up to gold.

- Patents are settled on a case-by-case basis, whereas the Entente gains the possibility to give some critical patents precedence over overlapping German counterparts, but only by compensating Germany through reductions of their war reparations. Non-overlapping patents stays German.

Hmm, were patents so precious to the Entente as to stick to this burdensome scheme, instead of simply leaving them to Germany ? I'm not convinced.

- Absolutely no forced internationalization of rivers, nor any "buy Entente first" policies.

Agreed about that.

- No specific mention of German "war guilt". All parties "reflect on the tragic loss of life in the Great War and pledge to mediate disputes without recourse to war through the League of Nations in the future."

- Mention however of the "terrible role" played by "absolutist monarchs" in letting the "crisis escalate" as a preamble to the article demanding that Germany, Austria and Hungary chooses and adopt "fair, representative and republican" governmental systems in the interests of their own peoples. The wording leaves the door open to future British-style Constitutional Monarchies, but not to absolutist rule. (And "Absolutist Monarchs", instead of "absolutist monarchies", shift the blame to individuals instead of states).

If you wish to leave the door open that way, drop the "republican" wording off the clausle, and use "fair and representative governments that are responsible to the people's will" instead.

I honestly cannot tell whether your own much-watered-down clausle would be plausible. But anyway I would avoid specific reference to the LoN, because I'm persuaded that the PoD would likely require something like a different US Administraton. The LoN was Wilson's brainchild (and obsession), this might butterfly it away entirely.

- Should Germany fail to respect it's part of the deal, all the provisions meant to expire after 15 years would become permanent, subject to review by the League of Nations.

Ok, but maybe better review by the Allied Council.

- Germany, Austria and Hungary immediately joins the League of Nations as full members.

See above. Maybe a proto-EU takes shape in a few years instead ?

- "Consultative" and non-binding plebsicites to legitimize the land-swaps are organized in areas that are to change hands, but all sides undestand that these are mainly for the gallery. No plebsicites occur in regions where the result would be in doubt or that have not already been slated for transfer. Its hard enough crafting a decent treaty without the plebs screwing with stuff. (I'm looking at you, Lisbon treaty. :D)

:D:D:D;););)

Lisbon treaty was not so bad, the bad mistake was to let the bloody Irish and British in the club in the first place. :(:mad:

A POD could be a slightly earlier end to the war following successful contacts in which Germany got key allied leaders to promise "clemency and generosity" if Germany surrendered "while it was still time" and if the Kaiser stepped down on it's own.

Maybe, but proper execution still requires a sensible British, American, and Italian leadership hanging together and overruling the bloodthirsty French and their various greedy Slav clients with extreme prejudice.
 

General Zod

Banned
Yet another draft, to merge Tellus' ideas and my own:

- Germany cedes Alsace-Lorraine to France, North Schleswig to Denmark, and Posen to Poland. A demilitarized zone is established in Rhineland.

- Germany keeps Eupen-Malmedy, Saar, Danzig, Silesia, West Prussia, and Memel.

- A temporary 20% "tax" on German coal output is established for 15 years, to be split by France and Belgium.

- Danzig, Memel, and West Prussia are occupied by Entente troops for 15 years in order to guarantee the free and unrestricted passage of Polish and Lithuanian trade. Poland and Lithuania get the right to use these ports for their goods without any tariffs and to move such good to and from their territory by means of extraterritorial railways and highways. Germany agrees to "recognize, respect, and enforce" the new borders of Poland, and its access to the sea.

- Lithuania is given the option to annex the Vilnius region if it agrees to enter a confederation with Poland.

- Estonia and Latvia are also encouraged to join in a confederation of their own.

- Italy annexes South Tyrol, Austrian Littoral, western Carniola, and Dalmatia, and it gets a protectorate over Albania.

- The Sudetenland is joined with Austria. Union between Austria and Germany (or Hungary) is forbidden for 15 years. If such an union shall occur afterwards, a demilitarized zone shall be established in North Tyrol and the Sudetenland, and the German Army cannot be increased in size as a result of the union. The treaty allows to form a customs union between Austria, Czechoslovakia, Germany, and Hungary.

- Hungary keeps western Crisana, northern Transylvania, Backa, and southern Slovakia.

- German colonies are ceded to France and Britain.

- Reparations owed by Germany are set at a total of 90 billion gold marks, to be paid over a period of 60 years. The annual payment, set at 1.5 billion gold marks, is divided into two elements—an unconditional part (one third of the sum) and a postponable part (the remainder).

- German Army is set to 300,000 men, and German navy is set to a 1:4 ratio with Britain. This ratio also applies to submarine forces. These limits are subject to renegotiation after 15 years, and the Allied Powers Council may temporarily suspend army size limitations, subject to Allied supervision, in case of “severe threat to the peace and security of Germany or Europe”. Germany is forbidden to own chemical weapons.

- Germany keeps sovereignty over its rivers and trade policy. Patents are settled on a case-by-case basis, whereas the Entente gains the possibility to give some critical patents precedence over overlapping German counterparts, but only by compensating Germany through reductions of their war reparations. Non-overlapping patents stays German.

- Germany, Austria, and Hungary acknowledge the fundamental role played by “absolutist monarchs” in the genesis of the Great War and pledge to maintain “free, fair, and representative forms of government that are responsible to the governed” in the interest of their own peoples and the peace of Europe.

- Should Germany fail to respect it's part of the deal, all the provisions that are meant to expire after 15 years would become permanent, subject to review by the Allied Powers Council.
 
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Valdemar II

Banned
A I dea to milder Versailles purely territoriumwise.

Saar is occupied for a twenty year periode, so France can rebuild the destroyed infrastructure, the Corridor and Danzig become a autonome region with German, Polish and Kashubian as official languages, Poland get extraterriorial rights to transport freight and personel through it.

Austria, Bohemia*, Hungary and Banat join together is military alliance and custom union, with judicial (only commercial) in Vienna (a kind of cross between ECC and NATO).

*I thought of Czechia, but that won't go well with the German minority.

altEurope1924.PNG
 

General Zod

Banned
Saar is occupied for a twenty year periode, so France can rebuild the destroyed infrastructure,

What's your problem with giving France a guaranteed share of output from *all* German mines, while keeping their greedy paws off German land ? :(

the Corridor and Danzig become a autonome region with German, Polish and Kashubian as official languages, Poland get extraterriorial rights to transport freight and personel through it.

This may work. However, leave Danzig outside of the autonomous region, the all-German city is not going to let itself be ruled by the likely Polish leadership of the region, extraterritoriality suffices to ensure Polish trade is respected.

Austria, Bohemia*, Hungary and Banat join together is military alliance and custom union, with judicial (only commercial) in Vienna (a kind of cross between ECC and NATO).

Ok, your neo-Habsburg Danubian pet peeve is as bad as my pro-Anschluss, pro-NAU one, ;):p a Mitteleuropean customs union may work, but Austria and Hungary are likely going to want Germany in, too, but the idea that 1919 Czechia and Austria or Hungary could be in the same military alliance is definitely... hilarious. :eek::eek: The so-called "allies" were sharing almost as much bad blood as Germany and Poland. Little Entente, anyone ? Absolutely not going to happen, unless the Soviets conquer Poland or such.

About your map, I cannot even begin to tell how much giving Slovenia to Austria and Slovakia to Hungary but not Dalmatia to Italy or Sudentenland to Austria makes no political sense.

You can't stop Anschluss. Resistance is futile. :p:p

Suwalki region seem a bit excessive, Vilnius itself should suffice.

Ok, I have edited the draft accordingly.
 
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