Your favorite reason why Britain would DoW Germany anyway if Berlin went east-first in 1914

[David Flin]

the people of Germany and Austria-Hungary - not the governments that have been swept away by revolutions anyway - did accept defeat because they thought that a peace based on Wilson's points wont be so bad.

Nonsense. They accepted peace because they were starving, they were tired of the war, they were tired of their menfolk dying in a now futile cause, and they were tired of Prussian domination of the decision-making processes.

It's instructive to read Die Sappe, one of the German trench newspapers, in which from early 1917 onwards, all these factors can be seen.

 

[Belisarius II]

Belisarius see my post above. In an East first strategy Germany can be wait until Russia declares and sends the first armies across the border.

What would make you think the Russians would declare war, and invade AH? They would mobilize all their armies, before they would think about that, which would put them in mid-September. In the meantime, the Austrian army invading Serbia was trounced, and forced into retreat. That would take a lot of the pressure off Russia to take immediate action against AH.

 

[ferdi254]

Perfect, than we do not have a eorld war just AH against Serbia.

 

[raharris1973]

Perfect, than we do not have a eorld war just AH against Serbia.

How so? Pressure may be off Russia to attack Austria-Hungary (and thus Germany to attack Russia) while Serbia succeeds in throwing back initial Austro-Hungarian offensive, but won't Austria-Hungary keep trying against Serbia, and eventually it will start to win. At that point Russia has to act, and then the other powers get involved?

 

[ferdi254]

But then it is clear that Russia and France are the attackers so Italy is in on CP side and the UK is out. Clear win for the CP.

 

[Belisarius II]

How so? Pressure may be off Russia to attack Austria-Hungary (and thus Germany to attack Russia) while Serbia succeeds in throwing back initial Austro-Hungarian offensive, but won't Austria-Hungary keep trying against Serbia, and eventually it will start to win. At that point Russia has to act, and then the other powers get involved?

AH & Germany only managed to defeat the Serbs when they brought Bulgaria into the war on their side. Unless the war expands, drawing in other powers, or the Germans send substantial forces to help AH is facing a humiliation. If German sends forces, they can hardly claim it was a defensive move. Their alliance with AH was supposed to be a defensive pact. AH would be under a lot of pressure to quite while their behind and end the war in some kind of ceasefire. Then the great powers would be able to start demobilizing their armies and defuse the crisis.

 

[Belisarius II]

But then it is clear that Russia and France are the attackers so Italy is in on CP side and the UK is out. Clear win for the CP.

If it's a war between just AH & Serbia how are the Russians, and French the attackers? Without a big war there's no conflict for the UK, or Italy to join.

 

[acasewithfourstonesinit]

I vote for getting involved in war in europe is a great way to distract from Irish controversie's,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
British empire point of view,

The home rule hyper crisi's that with out the conflict on the continent of europe and or the british empire's entry in that conflict to distract the british public from the home rule hyper crisi's it is very unlikely that london would be successful at navigating the home rule hyper crisi's with out falling in to a empire ending civil war,
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russian empire point of view,

The russian commitment to intervene in the austro serbian conflict on the 25th of july was past the point of no return from a minor regional austro serbian conflict in to a triple entente (triple alliance) conflict,

With russia in the middle of the largest worker's strike in it's history at that time and could not afford to back down after full mobilisation in unconditional support of serbia with out a empire ending revolution and or civil war,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
German empire point of view,

By 1912 germany had lost the anglo german naval arm's race and was looking to enlarge the army by adding three hundred thousand more front line first rate infantry troop's but failed to to so and in the end only one hundred thirty eight thousand second line second rate reserve troop's were added with the first half ready by the end of october 1914 and the rest ready by the end of march 1915,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austro hungarian empire point of view,

The assassination of archduke franz ferdinand as the second most powerful person in the austro hungarian empire as well as the most powerful anti war voice in the austro hungarian empire,

The austro hungarian's could not afford to back down after the assassination (any more then the american's could after the september 11th attack's) as well as serbia's open refusal to fully comply with the ultimatum,

Befor the austro hungarian's even declare's war on serbia russia has staked it's national survival in it's unconditional support of serbia,

The austro hungarian plan was called plan (b) with the second and (fifth) (six) armie's deployed to serbia (in are time line the second army was redirected from serbia to face the russian's after finding out that only one german army was deployed in the east),
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Kingdom of italy point of view,

The triple alliance can wait for russia to declare war on the austro hungarian's as italy would most likey be galvanize in to honoring it's commitment to the triple alliance and join the central power's camp,

The italian army can hold it's border with france and (coastline's) (colonie's) with one million troop's that still leave's will over one million plus troop's (do we send them to galicia?),
------------------------------------------------------------
Kingdom of bulgaria point of view,

Bulgaria still has grievously severe territorial dispute's with serbia from the balkan conflict's,

Germany can offer bulgaria the macedonia region of serbia and 150 million in gold mark's if bulgaria mobilize it's armie's and join's the austro hungarian offensive against serbia,
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ottoman empire point of view,

The british seizure of the ottoman battleship's resadiye and (sultan osman ı evvel) was the single greatest decisively pivotal moment in guaranteeing ottoman belligerent's with everything after the seizure irrelevant,
---------------------------------------------------------------
On august 1st kaiser wilhelm can go for a 1914 großer ostaufmarsch plan of four armie's of fourty two division's in to east prussia by mobilization day 15 (m+15) or august 15th see (hermann von staab's 1925 booklet),

In 1914 russia still has half a plan with the fourth russian swing army under plan (g) to deploy south of riga well over one hundred kilometer's behind were first russian army is deployed and or plan (a) deployed north of first austro hungarian army,

The first russian army of twelve division's is deployed faceing up against the eighth german army of fifteen and a half division's (that were raised locally east of the vistula inside east prussia),

The second russian army of fourteen division's is deployed up against three german armie's of twenty six and a half division's (that were raised in germany),

The russian ninth and (tenth) armie's dont deploy until the second week of september,

Were doe's the fourth russian swing army deploy? (in plan a were it will be as useful as the six russian army) (plan b faceing first austro hungarian army) (random were it deploy's left or right of second russian army) and if it deploy's with the second russian army who is covering the wide open western flank of the fifth russian army (first austro hungarian army?) (unidentified italian army?),
--------------------------------------------------------------------
This post tie's in with my post over on (alternate battle of lorraine 1914) on the 30th of november 2021.

 

[NoMommsen]

AH & Germany only managed to defeat the Serbs when they brought Bulgaria into the war on their side. ...

... quite some gross, glaring and the circumstances and developments of actual actions on the ground falsifying oversimplification.

The records of OTL - written by the austrians as well as heavily pro serbian leaning authors - decribe the serbian victories for August (Battle of Cer) as well as November/Dezember 1914 (Battle of Kolubara) as won at a hair's breadth only.

• ITTL only parts of the 2. Army - contrary to what was planned for the war against Serbia only - took part in the above mentioned fighhts esp. the "1. invasion" from 12th August to 30th August; precisely the 29th Div. of IX.Corps and the IV.Corps with 31st and 32nd Divs. (and these also only very reluctantly granted for a very short time [entrained for Galicia on 30th-31st August] with a damn awfull lot of operations disturbing austrian infighting for command from division level up to Supreme Command).
• The rest of IX.Corps and VII.Corps were already entraining again for their transport towards Galicia.

Without the russian ... distraction of the austrian attack on Serbia the whole of the 2. Army would have taken part :

• at, in and past the Macva additional 10th Cav.div and 23rd Honved Div. left of 21st Div. of 5th Army against serbian Kav.Div. cutting of almost all of serbian 2nd Army on the Cer
• serbian 1st Armys Su.I Div and 3rd calls tier troops ... questionable if deployed against Sabac (austrian IV.Corps two divisions) when austrian VII.Corps would go on the offense against Belgrad instead oh 'only' making a show until their transport towards Galicia from 23rd/24th August.

IMHO such an alternative "1st invasion" might not have finished Serbia completly off but ... almost :

serbian 2.Army would have been utterly deicimated,at least Cav.Div. and likely also kombined Div. on the Cer would be left almost non-existant​

while serbian Ma.I and Ti.I divisions might have been withdrawn with 'only' heavy losses and in time.​

...otherwise they would have been slaughtered from their back by austrian IX.Corps with still existant and ITTL much more encouraged austrian VII.Corps in front.​

The wished for aim - taking of Valjevo - would very likely still not happen in this 1st campaign, but as likely the austrians would hold all of the Macva probably also occupying the ranges above the Vukodraz river, possible also Draginje, maybe even the northern ranges of the Tamnave valley. Boranja Planina, the tomn of Zavlaka maybe also Sokalska Planina will be hold if also the town of Osecina ...

However the positions for the austrians for their 2nd onslaught would be MUCH better than IOTL when they managed to fight their way from the most northern turn of the Save to about 10-15 kilometers southeast of the Kolumbara (3rd.Dec.1914) with 'only' 29th Div, upfilled 7th Div. and a hotchpotch of 2nd and 3rd tier troops called "Combined Corps" at hands of the 5.Army instead of the whole 2. Army.

I would render it very likely that ITTL after the serbian army becomming toast in September/October, November the latest in early December the lower valley of the Morava up to Adzbegovac, the southern ranges of river Jasenica if not up to Kragujevac and the upper valley of the western Morava up to Cacak if not Kraljevo and from there to the montenegrine border near Nova Varos or even Sjenica are safely in austrian hands.
With the serbian Army very likely even more in shambles than OTL and on continous retreat it seems also likely to me that before New Years eve, mave even before X-mas the bulgarian leadership might now almost RUN to join the CP for ensuring their share of the cake before it's too late. ... though ITTL not truly needed anymore.

Here's a map of OTL condition in midth to late August

... but maybe helpfull for following my deliberations above as well. ;-)

edit :
With "ITTL" I mean the by Belisarius II proposed non-aggression of - at least - Russia

 

[Aphrodite]

But then it is clear that Russia and France are the attackers so Italy is in on CP side and the UK is out. Clear win for the CP.

There is nothing in the Triple Alliance treaty that would affect the Italians. The treaty is for the maintenance of the status quo not to support Austrian ambitions.

The treaty called for Austria to get Italian agreement before occupying Balkan territory. It speaks of "unprovoked" attacks.

Nothing relates to Serbia attacking Austria anyway.

France and Russia won't declare war on Germany. They will complete their mobilization and then the Russians will send an ultimatum to Austria. Germany will then have to decide what to do

Edited to add:. The historical record is clear- the most the Italians ever offered the Germans and Austrians was neutrality. They never offered to join the war on the CP side

They began haggling to join the Entente once France stops the Germans at the Marne

 

[Belisarius II]

... quite some gross, glaring and the circumstances and developments of actual actions on the ground falsifying oversimplification.

The records of OTL - written by the austrians as well as heavily pro serbian leaning authors - decribe the serbian victories for August (Battle of Cer) as well as November/Dezember 1914 (Battle of Kolubara) as won at a hair's breadth only.

• ITTL only parts of the 2. Army - contrary to what was planned for the war against Serbia only - took part in the above mentioned fighhts esp. the "1. invasion" from 12th August to 30th August; precisely the 29th Div. of IX.Corps and the IV.Corps with 31st and 32nd Divs. (and these also only very reluctantly granted for a very short time [entrained for Galicia on 30th-31st August] with a damn awfull lot of operations disturbing austrian infighting for command from division level up to Supreme Command).
• The rest of IX.Corps and VII.Corps were already entraining again for their transport towards Galicia.

Without the russian ... distraction of the austrian attack on Serbia the whole of the 2. Army would have taken part :

• at, in and past the Macva additional 10th Cav.div and 23rd Honved Div. left of 21st Div. of 5th Army against serbian Kav.Div. cutting of almost all of serbian 2nd Army on the Cer
• serbian 1st Armys Su.I Div and 3rd calls tier troops ... questionable if deployed against Sabac (austrian IV.Corps two divisions) when austrian VII.Corps would go on the offense against Belgrad instead oh 'only' making a show until their transport towards Galicia from 23rd/24th August.

IMHO such an alternative "1st invasion" might not have finished Serbia completly off but ... almost :

serbian 2.Army would have been utterly deicimated,at least Cav.Div. and likely also kombined Div. on the Cer would be left almost non-existant​

while serbian Ma.I and Ti.I divisions might have been withdrawn with 'only' heavy losses and in time.​

...otherwise they would have been slaughtered from their back by austrian IX.Corps with still existant and ITTL much more encouraged austrian VII.Corps in front.​

The wished for aim - taking of Valjevo - would very likely still not happen in this 1st campaign, but as likely the austrians would hold all of the Macva probably also occupying the ranges above the Vukodraz river, possible also Draginje, maybe even the northern ranges of the Tamnave valley. Boranja Planina, the tomn of Zavlaka maybe also Sokalska Planina will be hold if also the town of Osecina ...

However the positions for the austrians for their 2nd onslaught would be MUCH better than IOTL when they managed to fight their way from the most northern turn of the Save to about 10-15 kilometers southeast of the Kolumbara (3rd.Dec.1914) with 'only' 29th Div, upfilled 7th Div. and a hotchpotch of 2nd and 3rd tier troops called "Combined Corps" at hands of the 5.Army instead of the whole 2. Army.

I would render it very likely that ITTL after the serbian army becomming toast in September/October, November the latest in early December the lower valley of the Morava up to Adzbegovac, the southern ranges of river Jasenica if not up to Kragujevac and the upper valley of the western Morava up to Cacak if not Kraljevo and from there to the montenegrine border near Nova Varos or even Sjenica are safely in austrian hands.
With the serbian Army very likely even more in shambles than OTL and on continous retreat it seems also likely to me that before New Years eve, mave even before X-mas the bulgarian leadership might now almost RUN to join the CP for ensuring their share of the cake before it's too late. ... though ITTL not truly needed anymore.

Here's a map of OTL condition in midth to late August
View attachment 706905
... but maybe helpfull for following my deliberations above as well. ;-)

edit :
With "ITTL" I mean the by Belisarius II proposed non-aggression of - at least - Russia

You may be right in your analysis; I can't say definitively one way or the other. But I could say your assuming that Austrian troops sent to face the Russians in the OTL would be available for use against the Serbs. In this specific scenario the CP are holding off war against the Entente until the Russians declare war. Austria wanted to attack Serbia after mobilizing its army, on August 12th. With the CP less pressed for time the later date would likely be picked. With the advance of Russian mobilization by that date the same troops sent to counter the Russians in the OTL might still do the same thing. Austria was rightly more worried about Russia then they were about Serbia.

In this TL Austria would be better prepared at the start but would still be surprised by the strength of Serbian resistance. The campaign might be fought differently but could end along the same lines. The Serbs were more determined than the Austrians and responded faster in taking advantage of tactical opportunities. In other words, the Serbs outfought the stronger Austrian army. In this TL there's still a good chance they would do the something again.

 

[kham_coc]

France and Russia won't declare war on Germany. They will complete their mobilization

French mobilisation will be hard to pull off however, the French Chamber of Deputies weren't on board at this point, IIRC.

and then the Russians will send an ultimatum to Austria.

Would the UK join in for this ultimatum? - I can't see how.
France probably would, though if the Chamber of deputies isn't on board, that might be hard.
How much of Serbia is left at this point?
Would a Russian Ultimatum constitute sufficient reason for Italy to join? (Probably not - Though this might certainly change when Russia fails hard against Both Germany and AH).

 

[Tibi088]

while Serbia succeeds in throwing back initial Austro-Hungarian offensive, but won't Austria-Hungary keep trying against Serbia

And what do you base this assumption on?

OTL A-H was not supposed to attack against Serbia at all - the warplan they used was defend on the serb front and attack Russia. That Potiorek decided to ignore the plan and attack with insufficient - IIRC numerically inferior to the serbians - forces executing a plan that even in thir own wargame predicted to be a failure was utter idiocy. In a war between just A-H and Serbia A-H would actually use far superior forces and an actual warplan to attack Serbia. Im not saying they will walk ower Serbia easily but I think they performance would be much better.

 

[raharris1973]

And what do you base this assumption on?

The statements of these two guys, who just revived the thread, who I was replying to, that posted right above my post

What would make you think the Russians would declare war, and invade AH? They would mobilize all their armies, before they would think about that, which would put them in mid-September. In the meantime, the Austrian army invading Serbia was trounced, and forced into retreat. That would take a lot of the pressure off Russia to take immediate action against AH.

Perfect, than we do not have a eorld war just AH against Serbia.

OTL A-H was not supposed to attack against Serbia at all - the warplan they used was defend on the serb front and attack Russia. That Potiorek decided to ignore the plan and attack with insufficient - IIRC numerically inferior to the serbians - forces executing a plan that even in thir own wargame predicted to be a failure was utter idiocy. In a war between just A-H and Serbia A-H would actually use far superior forces and an actual warplan to attack Serbia. Im not saying they will walk ower Serbia easily but I think they performance would be much better.

Well that now gives me (and Belisarius, and ferdi) another consideration to think about.

 

[Aphrodite]

French mobilisation will be hard to pull off however, the French Chamber of Deputies weren't on board at this point, IIRC.

The French will mobilize along with everyone else. No one can allow their neighbors to mobilize without responding. Even the Dutch and Belgians are mobilizing. Mobilization doesn't mean war to anyone except the Germans

Would the UK join in for this ultimatum? - I can't see how.
France probably would, though if the Chamber of deputies isn't on board, that might be hard.

Doesn't matter. The Russians will have enough to destroy the Austrians by M15. The deeper the Austrians get into Serbia the better for Russia as the Austrians will not be able to move to Poland.

Only if Germany intervenes against Russia will Anglo-French responses matter. It is Austria's diplomatic position that is collapsing as general disgust at her refusal to compromise takes root throughout Europe. Even the Kaiser is mad at them. The worst case for Germany is that France just mobilizes and says nothing. The Germans must defend the Western border and can' t send anything East. The Germans always expected the French to intervene around M30

How much of Serbia is left at this point?
Would a Russian Ultimatum constitute sufficient reason for Italy to join? (Probably not - Though this might certainly change when Russia fails hard against Both Germany and AH).

Why is Russia "failing hard" against anyone? The Russians destroyed the Austrians in a matter of weeks with only a third of her army. The Russians are moving a division an a half a day to the Western front. Every delay works towards their advantage. The Germans will have to attack the Russians to save the Austrians- something that Germany failed in every attempt until Gorlice. Here, the Russians have their first and second armies intact, their fortresses for protection, the Germans forced to deploy six armies to the West to watch the French and an additional 15-30 divisions depending on when the Germans launch their attacks

With the Russians at the passes, the Italians and Romanians will join in and the Turks will bow out. If the Germans intervene, the Anglo-French will definitely join their winning ally


The German general staff studied this war for forty years, the plan they had is the only one that makes any sense at all

 

[ferdi254]

Aphrodite why would Germany move 6 armies in the West? And even if they did they gave the French a bloody nose with a 2:3 inferiority. If they move 6 armies then they will have 6:5 and will easily find out that they can send 2 (or even three if the French lose too many troops) to the east.

And why would the fate of the two Russian armies suddenly be different from OTL?

 

[kham_coc]

The French will mobilize along with everyone else. No one can allow their neighbors to mobilize without responding. Even the Dutch and Belgians are mobilizing. Mobilization doesn't mean war to anyone except the Germans

No it was war for everyone.

Doesn't matter. The Russians will have enough to destroy the Austrians by M15. The deeper the Austrians get into Serbia the better for Russia as the Austrians will not be able to move to Poland.

I can't see how they would do better than OTL, indeed there is every reason to think they would do worse.

Only if Germany intervenes against Russia will Anglo-French responses matter.

that's sort of guaranteed.

The Germans must defend the Western border and can' t send anything East.

A defensive strategy in the west would free up 2-3 armies. It may or not be a good idea in general, but it would unquestionably free up troops.

The Germans always expected the French to intervene around M30

Which drove strategy, but in this scenario, it doesn't.
The interesting question is, would the French intervene or not?

Why is Russia "failing hard" against anyone?

Well because they failed hard OTL.

The Russians destroyed the Austrians in a matter of weeks with only a third of her army. The Russians are moving a division an a half a day to the Western front. Every delay works towards their advantage. The Germans will have to attack the Russians to save the Austrians- something that Germany failed in every attempt until Gorlice. Here, the Russians have their first and second armies intact, their fortresses for protection, the Germans forced to deploy six armies to the West to watch the French and an additional 15-30 divisions depending on when the Germans launch their attacks

Again, it's the Russians that must attack or see the point of the War, be destroyed.
It started this over Prestige, it cannot impotently just wait, nor can it do any defensive strategies (like idiotic notions of abandoning Poland).
Russia must attack - This is especially considering how everyone thought the war was going to go, I.e Short and Sharp, and then negotiations.

The German general staff studied this war for forty years, the plan they had is the only one that makes any sense at all

They made that plan under a certain set of assumptions, those are very sound assumptions, so it's perfectly reasonable they made those choices - But this considers the what if, that they don't.

 

[Helmuth48]

I kinda missed this thread. It's an interesting question, because Britain's entry into the war was decisive for the outcome (and with it the spin-off). Reading about the July Crisis one can conclude that the British government was the only one to make serious efforts to find a peaceful solution, all the other European powers were mainly engaged in threatening each other. It also appears that the British motivation to go to war was solely to protect France when attacked by Germany. Some quotes showing this:

After Goschen left the meeting, Bethmann Hollweg received a message from Prince Lichnowsky saying that Grey was most anxious for a four power conference, but that if Germany attacked France, then Britain would have no other choice but to intervene in the war.[171]

Asquith wrote to Stanley in London that "the general opinion at present—particularly strong in the City—is to keep out at all costs".[188] The British Cabinet was badly divided with many ministers strongly opposed to Britain becoming involved in a war; a key figure was David Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who initially favoured keeping Britain's options open, then appeared likely to resign at the start of August, only in the end to remain in post as he regarded the German aggression against Belgium as sufficient casus belli. The Conservatives promised the government if the anti-war Liberal ministers were to resign, they would enter the government to support going to war. F. E. Smith told Churchill that the Conservatives would support a war against Germany were France attacked.[188]

Other reasons are not mentioned anywhere. Or it must be the "Fear Of Missing Out", i.e. losing France as a friend if it doesn't fight by its side. However, the British government has even offered to guarantee French neutrality:

On 1 August 1914, a British offer to guarantee French neutrality was sent out and promptly accepted by Wilhelm.[181] At 4:23 p.m. a telegram from the German Ambassador to Britain arrived with a planned British proposal to guarantee the neutrality of France and thus limit the war to one fought in the east. Wilhelm then ordered German forces to strike against Russia alone, leading to fierce protests from Moltke that it was not technically possible for Germany to do so as the bulk of the German forces were already advancing into Luxembourg and Belgium.[181] Wilhelm immediately accepted the proposal by telegrams at the ambassadorial and royal levels."[191] In keeping with this decision, Wilhelm II demanded his generals shift the mobilization to the east.

If the French government subsequently chooses to declare war on Germany, the British government will not be grateful. I therefore voted for "Britain actually wouldn't go to war with Germany in this case".

 

[Belisarius II]

I kinda missed this thread. It's an interesting question, because Britain's entry into the war was decisive for the outcome (and with it the spin-off). Reading about the July Crisis one can conclude that the British government was the only one to make serious efforts to find a peaceful solution, all the other European powers were mainly engaged in threatening each other. It also appears that the British motivation to go to war was solely to protect France when attacked by Germany. Some quotes showing this:




Other reasons are not mentioned anywhere. Or it must be the "Fear Of Missing Out", i.e. losing France as a friend if it doesn't fight by its side. However, the British government has even offered to guarantee French neutrality:


If the French government subsequently chooses to declare war on Germany, the British government will not be grateful. I therefore voted for "Britain actually wouldn't go to war with Germany in this case".

The Kaiser's condition for accepting French neutrality was the occupation of the French fortress line. That would leave France almost defenseless, so it was a nonstarter. France had no choice in honoring its alliance with Russia, and the destruction of France as a major power would leave the UK isolated, with the whole continent turned against them. For its own security the UK would be drawn into the war to preserve the balance of power.

 

[raharris1973]

The Kaiser's condition for accepting French neutrality was the occupation of the French fortress line. That would leave France almost defenseless, so it was a nonstarter.

But that demand was made by the Germans to be double-edged. Fine if accepted, but the Germans, except for the Kaiser, didn't think it would be accepted. So the other purpose of that demand was to set up the pretext to help justify the strike west first strategy to German and world public opinion.

If the Germans chose and east-first, defend in the west strategy, either because the Kaiser and Chancellor rein in the military and make it happen, or the military bend to the Kaiser's OTL change of mind, Germany will not place that impossible demand and infringement of French sovereignty, abandoning the fortress line, upon France. The Germans, knowing the demand, stated as an ultimatum would not be accepted and would be alarming, would not have made it. They would surely have expected a French attack, but would see no purpose in agitating the French and speeding up their attack, and would not want to do the French PR favors by issuing tough ultimatums.

The premise of the OP isn't that a last-minute, overly complex set of demands with GB guaranteeing French neutrality and France neutering itself militarily is what makes this war an east-first affair, it's that the Germans deliberately base their planning on east-first offensive or defensive/counter-offensive operations from the beginning of the July Crisis, owing to the Crisis's origins in the blank check to the eastern ally, Austria.