You are the Qing Emperor, how do you Meiji?

[The Merovingian]

Ok, so I know that Japan of all the Asiatic countries except perhaps Thailand is known for their ability to have been able to rapidly modernize their country due many factors such as

• A very dense population
• Kyoto was one of the (if not the) largest cities in the world
• There was a high literacy rate (70%?)

These factors made it much easier for them to industrialize certain sectors of their economy, and thus industrialize in general, correct me if I'm wrong. They also had

• Dutch learning
• A history of dealing with western nations
• An Idea of the happenings and advances being made in other countries

Which allowed them to effectively make the social changes they needed to, and hire experts carefully where they did not have the expertise themselves.

Even with this the Japanese had to deal with the Boshin War, and the Short lived Republic of Ezo. I remember someone once said on this blog " Often it was not reform or die, it was reform and die." I think it was said in defense of Empress dowager Cixi, which I thought was a bit sad.

My question to anyone who is interested in answering is quite simple. Lets assume you're a son of a Qing Emperor, and somehow by some miracle you are made the Emperor after your father dies. What changes do you make to make China more able to resist western interference? I imagine Literacy, any more advanced agricultural Technics should be introduced, maybe try your best to make the court more Han, and give earlier trade access to western powers? Mutual defense/trade treaty with USA (Is this possible or laughable?) How early do you think this needs to be done to be possible?

I'm under the impression that the reason there's not a lot of China wanks or Meiji's is because its quite the insurmountable mountain, yet we also have quite a bit of Byzantine TL's.

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

Qing literacy was very high for the time (around 30%, not very far from Japan), as were agricultural techniques. Beginning in 1798 and ending in 1830, I would try the following:

• Scrap the system with every government post having two holders, Manchu and Han. Just make the empire more Han generally, as was done IOTL after the mid-century crisis. Open up Manchuria and Xinjiang for Han settlement.
• Encourage overseas immigration to Southeast Asia. This is crucial to relieve population pressures.
• Ban opium early on. Prioritize the purchase of weapons from foreign traders.
• Identify the British empire in India and take measures to restrain it (e.g. via Nepal, Burma, and the Sikhs). For the first two decades EIC will not do much because it's scared of losing the China market.
• Slowly introduce paper money again and phase out the silver regime. Hopefully avoids the Daoguang Depression.
• Rely more on scholar-gentry to run welfare programs (the everlasting granaries, etc) to save on money.

 

[darthfanta]

Depends on WHEN this happens.Trying to fix things after the First Opium War starts to get increasingly difficult due to foreign control of tariff and reparations.

 

[The Merovingian]

Qing literacy was very high for the time (around 30%, not very far from Japan), as were agricultural techniques. Beginning in 1798 and ending in 1830, I would try the following:

• Scrap the system with every government post having two holders, Manchu and Han. Just make the empire more Han generally, as was done IOTL after the mid-century crisis. Open up Manchuria and Xinjiang for Han settlement.
• Encourage overseas immigration to Southeast Asia. This is crucial to relieve population pressures.
• Ban opium early on. Prioritize the purchase of weapons from foreign traders.
• Identify the British empire in India and take measures to restrain it (e.g. via Nepal, Burma, and the Sikhs). For the first two decades EIC will not do much because it's scared of losing the China market.
• Slowly introduce paper money again and phase out the silver regime. Hopefully avoids the Daoguang Depression.
• Rely more on scholar-gentry to run welfare programs (the everlasting granaries, etc) to save on money.

To be honest I'm pretty surprised Literacy was so High, I've always thought Chinese Kanji to be a very difficult and time consuming writing structure to teach as apposed to hiragana or the English alphabet which is shorter and easier to learn. Wasn't that why Mao introduced the simplified system in the first place in his Great leap forward?

• a sound Idea, but what would be the reaction in the Royal court? Do you imagine there would be a large amount of internal resistance? How did the average Chinese view the Qing pigtail...would they like that to be abolished? I remember seeing peasants crying as theirs were cut off in a documentary during the reign of Puyi.
• Sad but probably necessary, were the agricultural techniques just not up to the task of sustaining the population?
• Banning opium goes without saying, but do you think we should make the tea market easier to get access to, as a way to avoid the drug trade to begin with?
• Hehehe foreign interference what a fun Idea to play with.
• paper money is good, I might need to do some research on the economic structure of the Qing, but that and additional research goes without saying. Would the Qing with a more modern western economic structure be able to by foreign debt from countries like oh saaaaay America?
• The Idea of Course is to set things up for a constitutional Monarchy. while a scholar-gentry is good in the short run, I think compulsory education like in Japan is going to need to be instituted at some point if we want to see a modern Bureaucracy develop.

I'm seriously considering making a SI about this, so I may very well used your recommendations as a basis, they seem pretty solid.

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

To be honest I'm pretty surprised Literacy was so High, I've always thought Chinese Kanji to be a very difficult and time consuming writing structure to teach as apposed to hiragana or the English alphabet which is shorter and easier to learn. Wasn't that why Mao introduced the simplified system in the first place in his Great leap forward?

Mao was wrong, literacy rates are almost entirely dependent on socioeconomic circumstances rather than any intrinsic difficulty in the writing system. See: Taiwan. Now in Qing China the male literacy rate was around 30-45% (and exceeded 50% in most large cities) and the female literacy rate hovered around 10%. Of course there's a lot of controversy over what literacy entails, especially due to the non-phonetic nature of Chinese characters; is a fisherman who can only read characters for numbers and the character 'fish' literate? About 10% of males were also highly educated (e.g. they knew enough Classical Chinese and Chinese literature/history to have a chance at the lowest levels of state examinations).

what would be the reaction in the Royal court?

Controversial, many Manchus still clung to the idea that the Qing had become the most powerful empire in Chinese history due to the fe-i doro ("the old ways," basically Manchu tradition). So there might be coup attempts. But I doubt there would be any major revolts on the part of the Eight Banners (who should, BTW, be gradually disbanded). The colonization of Manchuria might be more problematic.

How did the average Chinese view the Qing pigtail...would they like that to be abolished?

In the 17th century yes, but by this point the pigtail didn't matter as much.

were the agricultural techniques just not up to the task of sustaining the population?

Yes, the Chinese had basically colonized every internal frontier allowed by the Qing state--even the most remote mountains were now terraced sweet potato farms. You needed ways to increase harvests on land already being farmed, and it's hard to do this without industrial technology. The colonization of Manchuria could help though.

do you think we should make the tea market easier to get access to

Well, even in the early 20th century Chinese homemade products were very much able to compete with Western industrial imports, so I wouldn't think an earlier "opening up" would be that bad from an economic viewpoint. But really the Qing state must do its best to exploit the trade to procure better weaponry. It's beyond ridiculous that the Qing army--the homeland of gunpowder--had a more primitive army than fucking Burma and Thailand in the 19th century.

Would the Qing with a more modern western economic structure be able to by foreign debt from countries like oh saaaaay America?

Ideally there would be no loans (government taking loans is a foreign concept in Chinese statecraft) and the Qing state would be able to tax its population more--the Qing subject paid less taxes than almost any other state in the world. The trade tax imposed IOTL during the Taiping war would be a good place to start, but on the other hand taxation means more social unrest.

I think compulsory education like in Japan is going to need to be instituted at some point if we want to see a modern Bureaucracy develop.

Agreed.

 

[M79]

Divergence needs to be between 1790 and 1810 for maximum effect IMO. It also requires a Daoguang Emperor who has truly incredible command of the military, economy, and the insight of Bismarck. Not impossible, but just d***, son.

OK, first is to crush the opium trade. The initial tolerance of it should be replaced with a death penalty as soon as historically feasible. Keeping the opium out of China allows for a lot more economic benefit to China proper. Any foreign merchants caught dealing it should be banned or imprisoned, perhaps even 'disappeared. Public examples should be made of any officials or officers who take bribes for opium-related concerns. Make the risks so terrible that some (obviously not all) are dissuaded from even trying to push the trade and maybe let the BEIC maintain its monopoly a while longer.

Second, push to modernize the military as much as possible. Command, control, weaponry. Maybe ask for help from the Portuguese for certain areas (They might bite given Macau and its reliance on the mainland) and make sure the military can prevent a Battle of Canton. Overall the military must be coherent and strong enough to repel British adventures smaller than outright incasion forces anywhere in it's territories.

Third, for maximum impact, have the Chinese take advantage of Indian dissonance. Support the rebellions in India, especially in opium-rich Bengal, to give London something else to think about. For truly hilarious irony it may be possible to bring the Sikhs and Nepalese into play - both had warred against China but British influence was a lot closer to home.

Fourth, encourage population movement to alleviate pressures at home. Fujien and Canton are very overpopulated, so either internal or external movement should be made easier. Setting up a system for talented students to study abroad should be encouraged as well, bring whatever European learning possible to China proper ASAP.

This is by no means comprehensive but could open the door for the First Opium War to go *very* differently if not pushing Central Asia and Southeast Asia to the Chinese sphere by 1900.