ADAM
"Not saying its not possible, but the strategic gain this late in the war (and after the entrance of the United States into the picture) makes it less worthwhile."
Basically agree, with the proviso that Hitler didn't know about Torch, so that wouldn't have entered into the decision.
"They would have been much better off carrying this out in 1941, even better if its in lieu of Crete."
Totally agree, especially considering that the 15th Pz Div hadn't even arrived yet.
BLAIRWITCH749
"...supplies will just pile up at the dockyard... and having malta doesn't improve axis internal transport capability or the quality of the via balbia highway"
Having Malta allows you to ship more trucks to N Africa & fuel them, so it DOES improve Axis transport. Not the highway, though-- but Rommel was able to supply his forces at a minimal level even over the Via Balbia. Had he been able to supply a larger force at similar levels, then he could have won 1st Alamein-- which was a close-run thing anyway.
"...at minimum it postpones gazalla allowing the british to finish their build up and attack him first."
I don't concede this. The Brits at that time had no intention of invading Libya. But even if they had, Rommel's signature tactics were to lure Brit tanks within range of his Flak-88s & pulverize 'em. This is easier to do in a fighting withdrawal than in the attack because you need the enemy to come to you. So if the Brits DO invade Libya, then conduct a fighting withdrawal until your supply situation gets cleared up, then turn around & chase 'em all the way back to the Suez.
"Even having Malta the Regia Marina isn't going to send convoys into Mersah Matruh or Tobruk..."
Possibly true, but only marginally relevant. Rommel was able to supply his force at given levels even thru Tripoli & Bengazi. Had he been able to supply a larger force at those same levels, then he wins @ 1st Alamein. No Malta means more trucks, more supplies, & a larger force. (Probably 22d Pz Div, which had just been raised, & 60th Motor, which was in the Balkans.)
"Operation torch is only a matter of a couple of months away so even if Rommel drives through to Alexandria, he is going to have his back door kicked in shortly."
My calculations show that Rommel wins @ 1st Alamein by the end of Aug & takes Cairo & the Suez by the end of Sep, or mid-Oct at the latest. That's 3 to 6 weeks before Torch. Question-- would the US have gone ahead with the Torch invasion if the Brits had already lost Egypt? I think it's possible they would have called it off, but let's say they go ahead. Rommel fortifies the Suez with mainly Ital inf divs & sends his pz force W, now numbering 3 German pz divs, 2 motor divs, 2 Ital tank divs, & 3 to 4 motor divs. He meets the US somewhere W of Tunis. Rommel's equipment is worn down from the long road march & his men are tired; but historically he won @ Kasserine Pass under similar conditions, so let's say he wins here too. Von Arnim was unable to exploit his victory at Kasserine Pass, in part because he had the Brit 8th Army nipping at his heels; but in this scenario, with a larger force & less of a problem with his rear, there's a good chance he can exploit. 50-50 he drives the US out of Africa. That wasn't even possible historically because of the 8th Army. I don't say that it WILL happen in this scenario, but it's possible.
"...the british maintained an elaborate cover operation to make Queen Elizabeth and Valiant look like they where in working order.."
Correct, but the Italians had promised to commit their BBs because Malta was so close, their BBs could retire if challenged. So you fly maritime recon to detect a Brit fleet sortie from Alex, & you don't find 'em. The op goes forward & Malta gets pulverized.
"...also; the home fleet or force H might decide to make an appearance and contest the landings..."
Against German & Italian land-based air? I seriously doubt it. We're talking about an invasion in Feb-Apr '42. On 10 Dec '41 the Repulse & the Prince of Wales got clobbered & sunk by Jap land-based air. Ever after, Allied doctrine was not to risk capital ships within range of enemy land-based aircraft. Even the Ark Royal & the Wasp, when they delivered fighters to Malta, flew 'em off from ferrying range & then got the hell out of Dodge.