Here's a list of the major players in the HRE, and my guesses as to which ones could convert ITTL.
Austria
-TTL Karl V will be a son of Philip the Fair and Anne of York ITTL, so he'll be a different person, and therefore a blank slate. He's also married to Vladislaus II's heiress, so he also rules Bohemia.
Bavaria-Munich
-Wilhelm IV and Ludwig X: tolerated the Reformation, but later opposed it. This probably won't change ITTL, especially if the Landshut branch converts.
Bavaria-Landshut
-Ludwig: blank slate, but he's married to Sophie of Mecklenburg, so he might convert ITTL. All credit for this goes to @Kellan Sullivan.
Brandenburg
-Joachim I Nestor: Catholic OTL, probably won't change ITTL.
Brunswick-Luneburg
Henry I "the Middle": opposed the Reformation IOTL, it seems he was anti-Habsburg IOTL, so if they convert it'll be even less likely he will.
Hesse (assuming Upper and Lower Hesse still unite as OTL)
-Philip I: fiercely Protestant IOTL, probably won't change ITTL.
Jülich-Cleves-Berg (assuming the Cleves and Jülich-Berg still unite as OTL)
-John III of Cleves: tried to balance between the Catholic and Lutheran sides IOTL, he or his children may or may not convert.
Mecklenburg
-Henry V: supported Lutheranism from the beginning IOTL, I don't think it will change ITTL.
Lorraine
-Antoine I: Catholic IOTL, and I doubt he or an ATL duke would be any different ITTL, considering Lorraine's status.
Electoral Palatinate
-Louis VI: converted to Lutheranism IOTL, not sure if that would change here.
Pomerania
-George I and Barnim IX: IOTL, George remained Catholic while Barnim later converted. They had testy relations with Brandenburg, so if Joachim stays Catholic, they could join the opposite camp.
Saxe-Lauenberg
- Magnus I: converted IOTL, not sure if that could change.
Electoral Saxony
- Frederick III: he never converted himself, but he did protect Martin Luther. John the Steadfast could still convert ITTL as well.
Ducal Saxony
-George: Catholic IOTL, and probably won't change ITTL.
Württemberg
-Ulrich I: deposed IOTL, converted in the chaos of the Peasants' War but was defeated, and later restored. This could go either way ITTL.
Austria
-TTL Karl V will be a son of Philip the Fair and Anne of York ITTL, so he'll be a different person, and therefore a blank slate. He's also married to Vladislaus II's heiress, so he also rules Bohemia.
Bavaria-Munich
-Wilhelm IV and Ludwig X: tolerated the Reformation, but later opposed it. This probably won't change ITTL, especially if the Landshut branch converts.
Bavaria-Landshut
-Ludwig: blank slate, but he's married to Sophie of Mecklenburg, so he might convert ITTL. All credit for this goes to @Kellan Sullivan.
Brandenburg
-Joachim I Nestor: Catholic OTL, probably won't change ITTL.
Brunswick-Luneburg
Henry I "the Middle": opposed the Reformation IOTL, it seems he was anti-Habsburg IOTL, so if they convert it'll be even less likely he will.
Hesse (assuming Upper and Lower Hesse still unite as OTL)
-Philip I: fiercely Protestant IOTL, probably won't change ITTL.
Jülich-Cleves-Berg (assuming the Cleves and Jülich-Berg still unite as OTL)
-John III of Cleves: tried to balance between the Catholic and Lutheran sides IOTL, he or his children may or may not convert.
Mecklenburg
-Henry V: supported Lutheranism from the beginning IOTL, I don't think it will change ITTL.
Lorraine
-Antoine I: Catholic IOTL, and I doubt he or an ATL duke would be any different ITTL, considering Lorraine's status.
Electoral Palatinate
-Louis VI: converted to Lutheranism IOTL, not sure if that would change here.
Pomerania
-George I and Barnim IX: IOTL, George remained Catholic while Barnim later converted. They had testy relations with Brandenburg, so if Joachim stays Catholic, they could join the opposite camp.
Saxe-Lauenberg
- Magnus I: converted IOTL, not sure if that could change.
Electoral Saxony
- Frederick III: he never converted himself, but he did protect Martin Luther. John the Steadfast could still convert ITTL as well.
Ducal Saxony
-George: Catholic IOTL, and probably won't change ITTL.
Württemberg
-Ulrich I: deposed IOTL, converted in the chaos of the Peasants' War but was defeated, and later restored. This could go either way ITTL.
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