Yet another Trump thread. Trump runs for Mayor of New York in 1989.

I just read through the "Trump as Republican nominee in 1988" thread and I think this is a more realistic idea. Also the POD is thirty years ago so hopefully this can be kept out of chat.

Trump became a media celebrity as a real estate developer and blowhard in New York in the 1980s, I remember the attacks on him in "Spy" magazine. In 1989 Mayor Edward Koch ran for a fourth term, but got into trouble over some corruption scandals and voter fatigue. He was opposed by three candidates in the Democratic primaries, and a rainbow coalition defeated him backing Manhattan borough president (county executive) David Dinkins. Opportunistic Democrat turned Republican and former federal DA Rudy Giuliani got the Republican nomination and lost narrowly to Dinkins. A key reason Giuliani did relatively well was do to Dinkins being African American, but also Republicans are surprisingly competitive in NYC mayoral races, particularly when the Democrats are overdoing it on corruption as they were at the time.

With that background, an opportunistic Donald Trump race for mayor in either primary is completely realistic, motiviated a desire to promote himself. The Republican primary electorate is so thin that the primary against Giuliani could really go either way, and then in the general he could beat Dinkins or completely melt down. If he loses narrowly to Dinkins and doesn't blow up, that sets up up for a successful 1993 run which is what happened with Giuliani. Its a lesser possibility, but there is a chance of coming up the middle in a crowded Democratic field, or somehow Koch drops out is gets pushed out of the runoff (in Democratic primaries there is a run-off if no one gets 40%) and Trump beats Dinkins, then Giuliani in the general election. I think this is before the city's attempt at its really weak version of campaign finance reform.

Keep in mind that this is not that much different from how Bloomberg got elected in 2001. Bloomberg comes across as less of a blowhard and his politics are the opposite of Trump, but the general idea is the same, wealthy businessmen using his money and the dysfunction of the established city pols to squeeze out a narrow win.

Could Trump get elected Mayor of New York in either 1989 or 1993, obviously how do things change if he actually gets elected, and could even a failed Trump campaign have butterflies?
 
If he does get elected, he'll get some necessary political experience and realize the issues, political interests, business interests etc. of one of the country's largest cities. Given that New York is the size of a small country, Trump will have an inkling of what the White House will be like. Maybe it'd make him a better President or maybe he'll decide not to run for President at all.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
The man clearly has only a cursory interest in politics, primarily for the power or noteriety, and the "how will this help me?" angle.

He'll learn politics is hard, and quit.
 
There is sort of a political rule that Mayors of New York don't get elected afterwards to other offices. This is somewhat true of American big city mayors in general, but especially applies to New York. I can't think of any exceptions.

On the other hand, a Mayor of New York can have a pretty big effect on New York City.
 
I can't think of any exceptions.
The most recent was Ardolph L. Kline, who was mayor for a few months in 1913 and then served in the House from 1921-1923. Before that, it was John T. Hoffman, who was mayor from 1866-1868, then governor from 1869-1872.

There's some reasons for this phenomenon: namely that many mayors of New York get mired down in scandals and make too many political enemies to run again, but like most political "rules," it's mainly a statistical fluke. Though, I expect Mayor Trump would face similar problems as Guiliani and Bloomberg - his weird centrist/syncretic politics would make it impossible for him to win the nomination of either party.
 
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