I just read through the "Trump as Republican nominee in 1988" thread and I think this is a more realistic idea. Also the POD is thirty years ago so hopefully this can be kept out of chat.
Trump became a media celebrity as a real estate developer and blowhard in New York in the 1980s, I remember the attacks on him in "Spy" magazine. In 1989 Mayor Edward Koch ran for a fourth term, but got into trouble over some corruption scandals and voter fatigue. He was opposed by three candidates in the Democratic primaries, and a rainbow coalition defeated him backing Manhattan borough president (county executive) David Dinkins. Opportunistic Democrat turned Republican and former federal DA Rudy Giuliani got the Republican nomination and lost narrowly to Dinkins. A key reason Giuliani did relatively well was do to Dinkins being African American, but also Republicans are surprisingly competitive in NYC mayoral races, particularly when the Democrats are overdoing it on corruption as they were at the time.
With that background, an opportunistic Donald Trump race for mayor in either primary is completely realistic, motiviated a desire to promote himself. The Republican primary electorate is so thin that the primary against Giuliani could really go either way, and then in the general he could beat Dinkins or completely melt down. If he loses narrowly to Dinkins and doesn't blow up, that sets up up for a successful 1993 run which is what happened with Giuliani. Its a lesser possibility, but there is a chance of coming up the middle in a crowded Democratic field, or somehow Koch drops out is gets pushed out of the runoff (in Democratic primaries there is a run-off if no one gets 40%) and Trump beats Dinkins, then Giuliani in the general election. I think this is before the city's attempt at its really weak version of campaign finance reform.
Keep in mind that this is not that much different from how Bloomberg got elected in 2001. Bloomberg comes across as less of a blowhard and his politics are the opposite of Trump, but the general idea is the same, wealthy businessmen using his money and the dysfunction of the established city pols to squeeze out a narrow win.
Could Trump get elected Mayor of New York in either 1989 or 1993, obviously how do things change if he actually gets elected, and could even a failed Trump campaign have butterflies?
Trump became a media celebrity as a real estate developer and blowhard in New York in the 1980s, I remember the attacks on him in "Spy" magazine. In 1989 Mayor Edward Koch ran for a fourth term, but got into trouble over some corruption scandals and voter fatigue. He was opposed by three candidates in the Democratic primaries, and a rainbow coalition defeated him backing Manhattan borough president (county executive) David Dinkins. Opportunistic Democrat turned Republican and former federal DA Rudy Giuliani got the Republican nomination and lost narrowly to Dinkins. A key reason Giuliani did relatively well was do to Dinkins being African American, but also Republicans are surprisingly competitive in NYC mayoral races, particularly when the Democrats are overdoing it on corruption as they were at the time.
With that background, an opportunistic Donald Trump race for mayor in either primary is completely realistic, motiviated a desire to promote himself. The Republican primary electorate is so thin that the primary against Giuliani could really go either way, and then in the general he could beat Dinkins or completely melt down. If he loses narrowly to Dinkins and doesn't blow up, that sets up up for a successful 1993 run which is what happened with Giuliani. Its a lesser possibility, but there is a chance of coming up the middle in a crowded Democratic field, or somehow Koch drops out is gets pushed out of the runoff (in Democratic primaries there is a run-off if no one gets 40%) and Trump beats Dinkins, then Giuliani in the general election. I think this is before the city's attempt at its really weak version of campaign finance reform.
Keep in mind that this is not that much different from how Bloomberg got elected in 2001. Bloomberg comes across as less of a blowhard and his politics are the opposite of Trump, but the general idea is the same, wealthy businessmen using his money and the dysfunction of the established city pols to squeeze out a narrow win.
Could Trump get elected Mayor of New York in either 1989 or 1993, obviously how do things change if he actually gets elected, and could even a failed Trump campaign have butterflies?