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Hmmm...wouldn't need the ARW to be lost, per se, but it would require a much weaker US bargaining position at the Peace table, and the continued existence of the Quebec borders as per the Quebec Act of 1774. This will NOT be popular with the US, but if they're in a weaker bargaining position, have worse negotiators, or the British much better ones, its possible.

A logical extension of Canada more Southerly then is set up. During the War of 1812 or its equivalent, we might see some additional grabbing in the Northern section of the Louisiana Purchase. Oregon won't even be an issue as it will go in entirety to Canada.
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