Yes 50,5 vs No 49,5 - Quebec, 31st. October 1995

[Alexpira]

Imagine that a "Yes" victory on the 1995 Quebec Referendum was already discussed in several topics...However, is always an interesting hypothesis to be re-discussed....

How do you imagine a 31st. October 1995 morning (and the following days, months and years) in case of an inverted result on the referendum? A unilateral declaration of independence, months of negotiations to a more autonomous Quebec but still within Canada, a partitioned Quebec?

 

[foresterab]

Partitioned Quebec happens almost immediately as most of the northern riding, dominated by First Nations were on record as wanting to stay with Canada

So Quebec then loses a huge amount of income via transfer payments (~30%) and the many of their hydro dams including James Bay which eliminates power sales (~15%). Economically Quebec was not in a good place to argue much.

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Partitioned Quebec happens almost immediately as most of the northern riding, dominated by First Nations were on record as wanting to stay with Canada

So Quebec then loses a huge amount of income via transfer payments (~30%) and the many of their hydro dams including James Bay which eliminates power sales (~15%). Economically Quebec was not in a good place to argue much.

Yep, I could see Western Canada saying "don't let the door hit you on your way out," given how disproportionate the transfer payments are.

 

[Flying Sorcerer]

At least that would get rid of Jean Chretien.

 

[thekingsguard]

Would this increase the session movement in Western Canada or decrease it? I could see either, since Canada just lost the biggest counterweight to Ontario turning the country into "Ontario and it's bitches".

 

[riggerrob]

Major New York banks would insist on control of the hydro-electric projects (e.g. James Bay) that they had financed. When Chase Manhattan Bank says “jump!” the USMC respond “How high sir?”
If the new sovereign Quebec government could not guarantee electrical power along the American Eastern Seaboard, the 10th Mountain Division, etc. would fly in to secure the Saint Lawrence Seaway, while you he 101st Airborne Division would helicopter and jump in to secure hydro-electric infrastructure farther from the border.
We suspect that the USAF had already pre-positioned fuel trucks, etc. at bases in upstate New York and Maine.
The US Army could seize the Quebec Provincial Parliament by lunch.

Seperatist thugs would be quick to encourage United Empire Loyalists to continue their migration to Ontario or the British Isles.
Montreal would remain an odd, multi-cultural enclave with distinct ethnic neighbourhoods. The question is how long the new “laine pure” government would allow Italian, Hebrew, Portuguese, etc. signs to hang over ethnic restaurants??????

Ottawa would insist on Quebec taking their share of the national debt.
Thousands of civil servants would be disappointed with their new unemployment.

Canadian soldiers would be forced to swear allegiance to Quebec or Canada. Those who swore allegiance to Quebec would be put on the next bus to BFQ Valcartier. Canadian Loyalist soldiers serving in Quebec would be flown to CFB Gagetown or CFB Trenton.
Quebec-loyalist soldiers would take control of empty ammo dumps and would soon suffer shortages of spare parts.

 

[FlyingSquirrel]

Would this increase the session movement in Western Canada or decrease it? I could see either, since Canada just lost the biggest counterweight to Ontario turning the country into "Ontario and it's bitches".

My impression is that Quebec has also been a target of Western Canadian resentment, not just Ontario. Pierre Trudeau's last majority government from the 1980 election didn't have a single MP west of Manitoba, and I recall that the Reform Party in the 1990s was pretty much a non-entity in Quebec.

 

[thekingsguard]

My impression is that Quebec has also been a target of Western Canadian resentment, not just Ontario. Pierre Trudeau's last majority government from the 1980 election didn't have a single MP west of Manitoba, and I recall that the Reform Party in the 1990s was pretty much a non-entity in Quebec.

Yeah, but the moment Quebec and it's 7 million Quebecers leaves Canada, Ontario jumps from a third of the total population of Canada to more than half. The Ontarian tail will wag the Canadian dog, and I don't know how much the other provinces would be into that.

I imagine some reforms would be passed as part of Quebec leaving, but it's way more fun to see a potentially balkanized Canada.

 

[traveller76]

I remember a book (non-fiction) written in 1995 regarding a possible breakup of Canada I used to borrow from the library. Working from memory here.

1. Quebec votes in 2000 and leaves. It gets to keep federal assets but takes a share of the national debt based on population.
2. The First Nations start to protest the way Hydro Quebec and Quebec has treated them in the past and a possible expansion.
3. Fête Nationale (St. John the Baptist Day), June 24, sees riots between Anglo-Canadians, Quebecois and French-speaking immigrants over discrimination and police treatment. The US sends the 10th Mountain to secure the border since the Quebec armed forces are understrength.
4. A small group of Mohawks takes over one of the main generating stations of Hydro-Quebec and blows it up after evacuating the station. This is on one of the hottest days of the year and the East Coast of the US sees a blackout.
5. Hydro-Quebec and the Quebecois economy are hammered in the U.S Stock Market over the Fete riots, terrorism and just poor economic performance. The new currency is becoming the equivalent of a Third World country.
6. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has also suffered with the loss of population. The Maritimes start moving closer to New England while the Prairies look towards the US and British Columbia looks toward the Pacific Rim for trade and investment. Canada is being removed from the G7.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Quebec declares independence. Chaos ensues. The TSX suffers a catastrophic blow and a recession begins almost immediately. Riots break out across Montreal in pro and anti secession neighbourhoods. Northern Quebec counter-secedes. Negotiations are going to begin but take a while. I genuinely think that Canada is going to try and get all of Montreal, even if they have to make deep concessions to get it. Maybe a deal with hydro for the island? During the negotiations both sides will be accused of giving too much, but some sort of rump pro-Canadian Quebec will emerge from Ottawa-Montreal-SW St. Lawrence. Quebec winds up with the federal infrastructure, but has to take a portion of the debt.

The Liberals are dead for at least a generation and the Reform, PCs, and NDP pick up the pieces. I doubt the right unites and the new 4 party system is the norm. The rest of the country will demand that Ontario be split up, so it gets split up into two or three provinces (my heart says three, my head says two). The Quebec economy flounders without federal money, the loss of the hydro, a new currency, and lack of access to NAFTA (which it immediately tries to join). There's probably a move to move the capital from Ottawa but given you Ontario just got shattered I think there would be a push back against it.

It would be exciting assuming you kept your job through the economic calamity.

 

[Landmass Wave]

Would this increase the session movement in Western Canada or decrease it? I could see either, since Canada just lost the biggest counterweight to Ontario turning the country into "Ontario and it's bitches".

The Maritime provinces would have the same problem - and would no longer be contiguous.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Would this increase the session movement in Western Canada or decrease it? I could see either, since Canada just lost the biggest counterweight to Ontario turning the country into "Ontario and it's bitches".

The rest of the country will flat out demand Ontario be broken up. And whatever remains of the federal government will acquiesce or risk the balkanization of the country.

The Maritime provinces would have the same problem - and would no longer be contiguous.

I'm sure some sort of negotiation will take place over a transport corridor with the Maritimes. But they really have nowhere to run. They need Canada far more than Canada needs them, and they'd lose huge provincial autonomy and influence if they tried to join the USA. The Maritimes will be the last to leave the sinking ship.

 

[History Learner]

Canada might outright collapse; Saskatchewan and the Maritime provinces, at the least, were either looking into joining the United States or even openly talking about it in a few cases.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Canada might outright collapse; Saskatchewan and the Maritime provinces, at the least, were either looking into joining the United States or even openly talking about it in a few cases.

I know they looked into it, but once the reality hit of how much power they'd lose in joining the USA I doubt anyone would actually do it (the loss of health care would be anathema to a lot of people too and I can't see the provincial NDP ever following through). On top of that, any residual power the Canadian government had in Washington is going to pressure the United States to drag it's feet and preserve what's left of Canada.

With Quebec gone, the biggest stumbling block to western demands on the federal front is gone and the Western provinces will force the break-up of Ontario and likely get a triple E senate in place. The threat of secession is better than actually leaving in this case.

 

[thekingsguard]

I know they looked into it, but once the reality hit of how much power they'd lose in joining the USA I doubt anyone would actually do it (the loss of health care would be anathema to a lot of people too and I can't see the provincial NDP ever following through). On top of that, any residual power the Canadian government had in Washington is going to pressure the United States to drag it's feet and preserve what's left of Canada.

With Quebec gone, the biggest stumbling block to western demands on the federal front is gone and the Western provinces will force the break-up of Ontario and likely get a triple E senate in place. The threat of secession is better than actually leaving in this case.

Small quibble - I think the Western provinces would actually gain more autonomy answering to Washington than to Ottawa - American federalism delegates a lot of powers to the states for a reason, and for all America's faults, we are very good about keeping states on equal footing at the federal level.

And as far as healthcare, easy fix: an interstate compact between whatever Western provinces join the USA to maintain regional universal healthcare. Hell, you may see some states like Washington and Oregon sign on. Frankly, how America should have done it rather than forcing it along at the federal level with the ACA.

 

[FlyingSquirrel]

I know they looked into it, but once the reality hit of how much power they'd lose in joining the USA I doubt anyone would actually do it (the loss of health care would be anathema to a lot of people too and I can't see the provincial NDP ever following through). On top of that, any residual power the Canadian government had in Washington is going to pressure the United States to drag it's feet and preserve what's left of Canada.

With Quebec gone, the biggest stumbling block to western demands on the federal front is gone and the Western provinces will force the break-up of Ontario and likely get a triple E senate in place. The threat of secession is better than actually leaving in this case.

Saskatchewan might have only qualified for a single seat in the House of Representatives if they'd joined the U.S., and even Alberta and BC would still be among the smaller states population-wise. They'd still each have two Senators, but they'd be vulnerable to getting ignored in presidential elections if they aren't swing states. Which I suppose they might be, given that the partisan divides in Canada don't necessarily line up neatly with ours - I suspect that some Red Tories would be Democrats, and some of the more conservative-leaning Liberals might find common cause with what's left of the Rockefeller Republicans (which isn't much now, but they were still around in greater numbers in the mid-1990s).

 

[Blue cat]

Canada might outright collapse; Saskatchewan and the Maritime provinces, at the least, were either looking into joining the United States or even openly talking about it in a few cases.

Perhaps...

I think it would be more likely for some of the western provinces to leave Canada and setup an indpendent state than it would be for them to join the U.S. If things don't work out as they expected perhaps they join the U.S. later.

To echo the comments of others while I can see western provinces threatening to leave I have my doubts they would actually leave as long as Ottawa is reasonable.

 

[Devvy]

Major New York banks would insist on control of the hydro-electric projects (e.g. James Bay) that they had financed. When Chase Manhattan Bank says “jump!” the USMC respond “How high sir?”
If the new sovereign Quebec government could not guarantee electrical power along the American Eastern Seaboard, the 10th Mountain Division, etc. would fly in to secure the Saint Lawrence Seaway, while you he 101st Airborne Division would helicopter and jump in to secure hydro-electric infrastructure farther from the border.
We suspect that the USAF had already pre-positioned fuel trucks, etc. at bases in upstate New York and Maine.
The US Army could seize the Quebec Provincial Parliament by lunch.

Do people really think the US would invade in this case? I'm genuinely intrigued as to whether this is based on anything real or just personal hypotheticals?

If Quebec takes the "Yes" vote as step forward, negotiates with Canada and leaves with an agreement, then there is no need for the US to do anything.

If Quebec declares independence unilaterally, then being unilateral, then Canada doesn't recognise it. Therefore surely if the US invades, it's invading a NATO member, which could theoretically invoke Article 5 and ask for help from the rest of NATO. Whether or not they do anything (highly unlikely, considering they'd effectively be opposing the US), it's an existential crisis which could easily see the destruction of NATO.

Why would the banks need to take control of the hydroelectric dams? Banks don't give a crap about national security, they care about making money. Quebec has a surplus of electricity it needs to export to provide an export revenue stream, the rest of Canada and the US will need to continue importing electricity, it's an easy commercial transaction that has little impact on sovereignty given keeping the lights on is a necessity. I don't see the reason to occupy the dams? Likewise let's be honest, Quebec isn't going to put a barrier across the St Lawrence. What's the need to occupy it?

 

[Blue cat]

Imagine that a "Yes" victory on the 1995 Quebec Referendum was already discussed in several topics...However, is always an interesting hypothesis to be re-discussed....

How do you imagine a 31st. October 1995 morning (and the following days, months and years) in case of an inverted result on the referendum? A unilateral declaration of independence, months of negotiations to a more autonomous Quebec but still within Canada, a partitioned Quebec?

At the time I speculated about how the national debt and federal assets in Quebec would have been dealt with in the event of a "Oui" vote. It was never really clear to me how practical it would have been to assign some of the National debt to a newly indpendent part of what used to be Canada. (Perhaps some one else has more insight to this ?). This in turn lead me to wonder about how the assets would have been divided ?

 

[Blue cat]

Yep, I could see Western Canada saying "don't let the door hit you on your way out," given how disproportionate the transfer payments are.

Maybe not if there wasn't an arrangement in place for Quebec to assume their share of the national debt ? I can see a sentiment along the lines of:

"You don't get to leave with the blessing of the rest of Canada until the rest of Canada is satisfied you will pay your share of the debt and that Canada won't be stuck with the bill if you default."

To recap my comments from another post, if anyone knows if there was an answer to the national debt question, I would be interested in knowing what it was.