This TL/story is a conglomeration of my own reading and various discussions on this page. I hope all will enjoy it!
Year of the Jinx
An AH timeline/story by Geon
It seemed like something had it out for us from December 7, 1941 until August of 1943. We just couldn’t seem to catch a break. From the Pearl Harbor disaster to the taking of Port Moresby it seemed we were dropping the ball time and time again. I really wondered whether Joe Lewis’ comment about God being on our side was the truth! (From Fleet Admiral King by Admiral Ernest King, 1952)
Prelude: The General and the Admiral
December 30, 1940: Tokyo, The Diet Building, 8:00 P.M.:
In the office of General Hediki Tojo, Minister of the Army was sequestered with Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, Grand Admiral of the IJN.
Sitting at his desk General Tojo was reading part of a letter that Admiral Yamamoto had written some months ago.
Should hostilities once break out between Japan and the United States, it would not be enough that we take Guam and the Philippines, nor even Hawaii and San Francisco. To make victory certain, we would have to march into Washington and dictate the terms of peace in the White House. I wonder if our politicians [who speak so lightly of a Japanese-American war] have confidence as to the final outcome and are prepared to make the necessary sacrifices.
After a moment General Tojo looked up at Admiral Yamamoto and said simply. “It may surprise you but I completely agree with you on this statement, all of it,” he emphasized.
“Then you know Minister that going to war with the Americans will be a complete disaster, it will be national suicide,” declared Yamamoto. The Admiral knew such blunt talk was dangerous given the atmosphere of these days but he hoped to make Tojo realize, that a war with the United States would be a cataclysm for Japan.
“I am aware of the danger we face from a war with America Admiral,” Tojo replied sighing. “Some of our number as you know have published your statement minus the last sentence as proof that Japan could actually win such a war…however I am under no such illusions.”
“Then why…?” Admiral Yamamoto began to speak but Tojo held up a hand and the Admiral fell silent.
Getting up Tojo walked over to a large map of the world and looked at it briefly.
“There are realities to be faced Admiral. The war in China has now been underway for over 3 years with no end in sight. That war is draining manpower and resources. Our economy is already becoming more unstable. The U.S. is putting more and more economic pressure on us and word from our sources in Washington is that President Roosevelt is considering cutting off oil exports to us. If that happens Japan will be in very dire straits.”
Tojo paused and then pointed to the Dutch East Indies on the map. “The Dutch are still willing to sell us oil but unfortunately not in the amounts we need. Further to continue this war we need more of everything; rubber, tungsten, food…we must have these in more abundance then the Western Powers are willing to sell us. “
Tojo turned back to Yamamoto. “The Western powers want to strangle us into submission Admiral. They are uncomfortable with our seeming presumption to join them as equals. They would much rather we remain as lapdogs to them gratefully licking up the scraps they toss us. If we are to take our rightful place then we must strike now while we are still able.”
The General continued, “We must take the resource rich areas of the Dutch East Indies and that means also having to neutralize the American air and naval presence in the Philippines as well as the British air and naval presence in Hong Kong and Singapore. And that means only one alternative, invasion.”
The Admiral spoke up. “And of course, if we invade the Philippines it means war with America. It is a war we cannot win General. You know I have studied in America, I have lived among them for several years. I can tell you quite plainly the Americans may appear soft, but they are far from it. They are very much like a sleeping tiger. Wake him and he will tear you to pieces. That is also the case with the Americans. They are a determined people once aroused. “
Tojo nodded. “I agree. But the fact remains we are still left with the choice of eventually having to back down in the face of American economic sanctions or use military force to seize what we need for our industries. There is no other choice. So we need a plan that will effectively neutralize the Western naval powers long enough so we can secure our economic goals. Once we have those goals we can negotiate with the West as equals.”
“Prince Konoye still hopes there can be some accommodation…,” Yamamoto began and then stopped. Always observant the Admiral already knew the way the political winds were blowing in Tokyo. It was unlikely the Prince would remain as prime minister much longer. Further, it was all too likely Tojo would be in power as prime minister by this time next year if not much sooner.
Tojo apparently was reading the Admiral’s mind. “What the Prime Minister hopes for is becoming increasingly irrelevant as regards the reality of the situation,” he said. “A military solution is the only solution I see that ensures continued national survival. The Americans will be a tough adversary, tougher than the Chinese. But, if we can strike quickly and hard enough we may be able to knock them out of any serious contention long enough for us to secure our goals. We can then bow out of the war and offer America an honorable enough peace.”
“And so Admiral we come to this,” Tojo continued. “I need you to begin to formulate a plan that will allow us control of the Pacific for at least one year possibly two."
The Admiral shook his head. “At most, I believe we would have six months possibly a year if that plan succeeded. After that American productivity will begin to make itself felt I believe.”
Tojo looked at the Admiral. “Then you have a plan in mind?” “I do,” the Admiral said after a moment of silent thought. “It is dangerous but it could give us the chance we need. Again, be aware General, if this plan works I will run wild in the Pacific for at least six months, possibly as much as a year if we are fortunate, but after that I foresee only disaster for us.”
Tojo replied, “If we can get those six months, we can secure the Philippines, Guam, Wake, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Dutch East Indies, New Guinea, and Burma. Once we have done that and have fortified key areas then the West will have to face a long struggle to retake all of it. Given that it is likely the Western Allies will be fighting Germany as well by then they may not be able to spare the manpower and resources to retake lost territory. Yes the risk is high but the gains in my opinion outweigh the risk.”
Admiral Yamamoto sighed deeply and then said. “Very well General, then I will begin to formulate the details for the plan and speak with my fellow officers regarding its feasibility.”
General Tojo nodded. This meeting would be considered the beginning of what became known as The Yamamoto Plan.