Yamato class carrier

Was this true - I once read that the IJN had a pool of 2000 fully trained Deck qualified Pilots at the beginning of Dec 1941?

Even after the disasters of 1942 and other attritional losses they still had plenty of pilots left - just not so many decks.

Once of the things that did impact them earlier in the war was the loss of trained 'hanger' personnel from the lost and badly damaged carriers.

By 1944 however attrition has seriously reduced this pool of pilots

A lot of those pilots got chewed up in the air battles in the Solomons in the second half of 1942 through most of 1943. More than once they put squadrons from the carriers ashore at Rabaul to fight and they got worn down badly.
 
I've read that the problems with Japanese and German air combat training was that they allowed their best, most veteran combat pilots to remain in combat until they were eventually killed.

"Fly till you die".

The U.S. made a point of rotating veteran pilots back home and using them as instructor so they could pass on their first hand combat knowledge and skills to many more new pilots.

It's a little strange to think that a pilot as skilled as Jimmy Thach never flew another combat mission after Midway but he had important jobs in the organize, man, train, and equip role.
 
It's a little strange to think that a pilot as skilled as Jimmy Thach never flew another combat mission after Midway but he had important jobs in the organize, man, train, and equip role.

Which really seems to me part of the genius of the way American pilot training was organized - pass on the lessons not only to new pilots to get them ready to fight, but to the guys designing the weapons as well. IIRC Grumman did a whole lot of interviewing of Naval Airmen when it came to designing the F6F and the F8F.
 
Yes, I am suggesting that the USN will attack Japanese shipping. I think the orders to do this were issued and it does not require a declaration of war, as demonstrated by the Atlantic "war". It's entirely in keeping with US political strategy and actions.

The patrol area would be designed to result in a confrontation with Japanese forces, just as in the Atlantic. Except with Japan instead of Germany, obviously. It might consist of an exclusion zone around the Philippines and the escort of ship towards Singapore and DEI ports. That works until February, and afterwards they can go to India and Australia. The Asiatic fleet and the aircraft based on the Philippines shoud be sufficient, regardless of any reinforcements.


Do you have any clue of the size of the Asiatic Fleet? 1 CA, 1 CL, 13 DDs and about 30 subs. What happens when the commander refuses the order as its clear suicide mission? Your ordering USN ships to attack vastly superior forces. The commander may obey but he also might do so under formal protest and if word of that leaks out it would be a PR disaster.

The old war games are irrelevent because they did not envisage this convoluted situation. There's no need to move the fleet all the way to the Philippines, it just requires some destroyers, cruisers and aircraft.

I repeat you are seriously suggesting there would be an order for the USN to take a light force to seek a fight with vastly superior forces?

Reinforcements are over a month away from Pearl at standard cruising speeds of 12 knots. The ships will need a week for short term refit and then they get sent out to do what exactly?

As to the comment that that old war games are irrelevant I disagree those showed the folly of forward deploying a too weak of a force why do you think the USN developed the strategy it did? You are going to have the US toss out the last 20 years of war planning to have ships do a suicide mission to provoke a battle? To get congress to declare war. Do you think that just maybe there might be some push back? Just saying.

Michael
 
I don't think it takes much imagination to come up with orders that are appropriate to the forces available.

Ideally, this would not include shooting first, for political reasons. More appropriate would be, for example, joint RN-USN escort of shipping between the Philippines and Singapore. If attacked, retaliation by land-based air would be appropriate.
 
Series of events, USA declares neutrality patrol and right of free passage on high seas.

Japan declares formal blockade of Singapore.

USN force departs escort is USS Huston and half division of DDs 6, this is half the surface for available. I repeat this is HALF of whats there.

Convoy is overflown by IJN / IJA aircraft at some point along the way.

IJN force intercepts the convoy. Take your pick as to the force makeup from squadrons of cruisers, battleships on up to carrier forces with screen in proportion.

IJN signals the US convoy that a blockade is in place and they are to stop to confirm contents is not war materials if the convoy refuses to stop they will be presumed hostile and subject to attack.

What is the USA play at this point? The US commander knows that if a fight occurs he WILL BE DESTROYED and the convoy with him.

Lets say the US wait a month for reinforcements to arrive from Pearl. There has been no Pearl Harbor Raid and no invasion of the Philippines the Japanese have a lot of free resources available to them. Is Singapore still even there?

Michael
 
What is the USA play at this point? The US commander knows that if a fight occurs he WILL BE DESTROYED and the convoy with him.


Michael


The US that lost 2,400 personnel and had eight battleships, three cruisers and three destroyer hammered just for a warm up in OTL is going to cry uncle over fear of losing six destroyers?

You realise a more realistic scenario is a destroyer and perhaps six merchantmen, a really old destroyer and minimal crews on the merchies? Say four hundred lives risked to achieve the same result as Pearl?

The Americans do not need to force the blockade here. If the IJN fire sayonara South East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The US that lost 2,400 personnel and had eight battleships, three cruisers and three destroyer hammered just for a warm up in OTL is going to cry uncle over fear of losing six destroyers?

You realise a more realistic scenario is a destroyer and perhaps six merchantmen, a really old destroyer and minimal crews on the merchies? Say four hundred lives risked to achieve the same result as Pearl?

The Americans do not need to force the blockade here. If the IJN fire sayonara South East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.

The American commander on the spot is not particularly likely to kill himself for it, though. Intimidation does work...
 
The US that lost 2,400 personnel and had eight battleships, three cruisers and three destroyer hammered just for a warm up in OTL is going to cry uncle over fear of losing six destroyers?

You realise a more realistic scenario is a destroyer and perhaps six merchantmen, a really old destroyer and minimal crews on the merchies? Say four hundred lives risked to achieve the same result as Pearl?

The Americans do not need to force the blockade here. If the IJN fire sayonara South East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.


Pearl was a surprise attack vs. ordering to challenge a blockade without the firepower to pull it off. The differences in the setup are rather glaringly obvious.

For humor value lets take your setup instead one of the old Clemson DDs sets out with a handful of merchants. As they approach their destination IJN 5th Cruiser Division and DesRon 2 on blockade duty approach they were vectored in by IJN aircraft. Two CAs and eight destroyers.

The Convoy is ordered to turn around or stop and prepare to boarded. Continued forward movement will me taken as hostile act.

USN commander decides to press to see if the IJN will open fire.

IJNS Nachi and IJNS Haguro open fire at long range with twenty fountains of water rise up in front of the DD as twenty 8" shells are fired.

A final warning is issued.

USN commander follows his orders and keeps going forward.

IJN commander mutters something about stupid idiots and orders the DD sunk.

A short time later the Clemenson is sunk and the destroyers seize the merchant ships in the convoy.

Now explain to me how FDR spins this stunt into Japanese aggression?
US violated a legal blockade and ignored legal orders to turn around and our ship got wasted after refusing the warning shots. The papers aren't stupid and even the partisan ones are going to have to ignore all standing Admiralty Law on the subject.

Call me crazy but I don't see you getting a day of infamy speech out of this.

Just saying.

I can see the US doing some things if FDR is dead set on getting a war but it will take months of build up, an ultimatum followed by a US DoW. Not USN attacks on Japanese ships in international waters or suicide mission convoys.

Michael
 
A short time later the Clemenson is sunk and the destroyers seize the merchant ships in the convoy.

Now explain to me how FDR spins this stunt into Japanese aggression?


Michael


They sank our ships...good enough for the American public time after time. I have tried arguing reason with them.

The Problem capital P capital problem is that your plan does not at any point address the massive abundance of American strength vis-a-vis the IJN. The IJN cannot give the Americans months...okay it turned out attacking Pearl in OTL did nothing for them either but they knew that they could not give the Americans months to concentrate even more units of the USN than were already in the Pacific.

The IJN felt it had to shock the Americans into wanting to make peace, your plan denies them even that shock but leaves them facing the full power of America.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I actually think that the domestic opposition to FDR here will be stronger than after Pearl - a lot stronger. This is "forcing" a war in a way that OTL was not.
 
It seems an american response to Japanese attack on British/Dutch possessions only, is to just occupy Balikpapan and Tarapan oil fields immediately with whatever scratch force can be scraped up (the Dutch almost have to accept this "help" and Roosevelt's excuse is to help enforce the embargo). The Japanese didn't occupy these places until mid/late January 1942 OTL so there is time.

If the Japanese attack anyway Roosevelt has his war. If they don't attack the embargo will squeeze the Japanese anyway.
 
I actually think that the domestic opposition to FDR here will be stronger than after Pearl - a lot stronger. This is "forcing" a war in a way that OTL was not.

Japan on the other is also forcing war in a way that OTL it was not. You need to balance that in the equation.

Further is has just occurred to me that this scenario of Japanese uberness actually seems to set the IJN up for a reverse Pearl. The US Pacific Fleet can sally forth, waiting for those first shots to be fired and then smite a chunk of the Japanese fleet of its choosing, quite possible whatever ships are back in the Home Islands for extra giggles. I do not know the IJN main base off the top of my head.

Alternatively you have the Pacific Fleet go to Sydney and refuel there to go to...the whole Imperial Japanese Navy wonders...and it ain't happy.
 
They sank our ships...good enough for the American public time after time. I have tried arguing reason with them.

Really? So you never heard of the USS Reuben James I take it?


The Problem capital P capital problem is that your plan does not at any point address the massive abundance of American strength vis-a-vis the IJN. The IJN cannot give the Americans months...okay it turned out attacking Pearl in OTL did nothing for them either but they knew that they could not give the Americans months to concentrate even more units of the USN than were already in the Pacific.

The IJN felt it had to shock the Americans into wanting to make peace, your plan denies them even that shock but leaves them facing the full power of America.


The plan is a roll of the dice to seize the resources that Japan needs running on the assumption that the US will not fight.

If Japan ends up at war, Japan has lost its just a question of time.

Michael
 
Really? So you never heard of the USS Reuben James I take it?

Hum, we do not actually know that was not enough to start a war as Hitler fixed the whole declaration problem rather quickly but then again confused Germans versus laughing Japs (in fact you really need to use some even more racist descriptor here). To be honest I do not think the bar for entry is as high for Japan but also a I do not think a little over a week would upset FDR if it took him that long to stoke the fires. Even a short bit longer would not hurt.


The plan is a roll of the dice to seize the resources that Japan needs running on the assumption that the US will not fight.

If Japan ends up at war, Japan has lost its just a question of time.

Michael

The thing is you are gambling on dispersing the Japanese fleet to be munched at leisure against US inaction. The Imperial Japanese Navy pre-war strategy was based on the assumption of attrition against USN followed by the decisive battle. Pearl gives a nice down payment on the attrition account in Japanese thinking while your plan opens up Japan to defeat in detail.

I cannot help but think the IJN is going to have nervous commanders looking over their shoulders constantly. They have good reason, Japan sinks a US warship FDR acting as Commander in Chief gives orders for an immediate response while going to Congress for a full DOW. Not only can he offer them a red shirt but also within short order a series of inspiring American victories in this scenario.

The outrage is less (perhaps) but the defeat factor is absent also plus added victory factor...I think that probably still gives the President a pretty strong hand in pursuing the war effort.
 
It seems an american response to Japanese attack on British/Dutch possessions only, is to just occupy Balikpapan and Tarapan oil fields immediately with whatever scratch force can be scraped up (the Dutch almost have to accept this "help" and Roosevelt's excuse is to help enforce the embargo). The Japanese didn't occupy these places until mid/late January 1942 OTL so there is time.

If the Japanese attack anyway Roosevelt has his war. If they don't attack the embargo will squeeze the Japanese anyway.

Theoretical possible to get to the locations in question but it would be again light tripwire forces from the Philippines Garrison. Also Japan is going for these locations too. See my comment up thread I do wonder at what Japan does with the sealift and tankers now friend up? Both locations you are suggesting are on the coast Japan might get there first. Historically they fell 2nd week of January 1942.

Michael
 
Hum, we do not actually know that was not enough to start a war as Hitler fixed the whole declaration problem rather quickly but then again confused Germans versus laughing Japs (in fact you really need to use some even more racist descriptor here). To be honest I do not think the bar for entry is as high for Japan but also a I do not think a little over a week would upset FDR if it took him that long to stoke the fires. Even a short bit longer would not hurt.

A month plus after the incident and there were others too but no sinkings but not any move to declare war on our side till Germany does first. We agree to disagree if you think a suicide DD gets FDR a declaration of war out of congress.



The thing is you are gambling on dispersing the Japanese fleet to be munched at leisure against US inaction. The Imperial Japanese Navy pre-war strategy was based on the assumption of attrition against USN followed by the decisive battle. Pearl gives a nice down payment on the attrition account in Japanese thinking while your plan opens up Japan to defeat in detail.

It will be impossible for the US to hide relocation of the Pacific Fleet to the Philippines. Japan will have time to react and reconsider if such a move is made.

I cannot help but think the IJN is going to have nervous commanders looking over their shoulders constantly. They have good reason, Japan sinks a US warship FDR acting as Commander in Chief gives orders for an immediate response while going to Congress for a full DOW. Not only can he offer them a red shirt but also within short order a series of inspiring American victories in this scenario.


Why would the IJN be hugely worried till the fleet puts to sea they will know where all the major units are at. Japanese naval attaches fairly openly will just walk past Pearl or San Diego and do a head count on whats in port. We can slip out detached units of course but big elements? Impossible to hide at least that ships are on the move. Till that happens Japan has crushing combat power advantage in the region.


The outrage is less (perhaps) but the defeat factor is absent also plus added victory factor...I think that probably still gives the President a pretty strong hand in pursuing the war effort.

Assuming congress goes along, it would really suck if the House or Senate called hearings and asked the Navy Departing some uncomfortable questions.

Michael
 
A month plus after the incident and there were others too but no sinkings but not any move to declare war on our side till Germany does first. We agree to disagree if you think a suicide DD gets FDR a declaration of war out of congress.

The problem is that given the way German surface ships have been chased off it is damn hard to find stuff to sink plus as I keep trying to point Germany does not and never will experience quite the same level of xenophobia as Japan.


It will be impossible for the US to hide relocation of the Pacific Fleet to the Philippines. Japan will have time to react and reconsider if such a move is made.

Your faith in the speed and celerity (yes it is a tautology) compared with the US Fleet is interesting, also your confidence in the range limits of US operation being less than those of the IJN.




Why would the IJN be hugely worried till the fleet puts to sea they will know where all the major units are at. Japanese naval attaches fairly openly will just walk past Pearl or San Diego and do a head count on whats in port. We can slip out detached units of course but big elements? Impossible to hide at least that ships are on the move. Till that happens Japan has crushing combat power advantage in the region.

Right so the empty waters of the harbour will give them aquamantic insight into the position of the Pacific Fleet at sea? I strongly suspect that will not be the case. Nor does the Japanese Navy have crushing combat power advantage as you by your plan dispersed the fleet.



Assuming congress goes along, it would really suck if the House or Senate called hearings and asked the Navy Departing some uncomfortable questions.

To be honest I don't think the problem would be difficult questions so much as there is always a chance of a flat out no. However as stated you have America's long time competition with Japan, a certain amount of racism, plus actual threat, plus an actual incident and per your plan the thrill of actual victories to balance against calculations of partisan gain.

I think the sense of opportunity will carry it.
 
The problem is that given the way German surface ships have been chased off it is damn hard to find stuff to sink plus as I keep trying to point Germany does not and never will experience quite the same level of xenophobia as Japan.

The Neutrality Patrol and the sinking of the USS Reuben James were all about U-Boat threat.


Your faith in the speed and celerity (yes it is a tautology) compared with the US Fleet is interesting, also your confidence in the range limits of US operation being less than those of the IJN.

Logistics and the map does simply suck some times you can't side step the 4,000+ nm cruise from Pearl to Philippines. Its going to take TIME to move the ships and more time to move their support elements and supplies. Just do the math yourself. I repeat there is a reason that the Navy came up with the war plans that they did. The navy would be frankly horrified if ordered to forward deploy to the Philippines.

Japan operating in the South China Sea is simply closer their their bases than the USA as such they have a greater range of options in the short term and the ability to react to events.

Right so the empty waters of the harbour will give them aquamantic insight into the position of the Pacific Fleet at sea? I strongly suspect that will not be the case. Nor does the Japanese Navy have crushing combat power advantage as you by your plan dispersed the fleet.

Look up and read what I posted.

Why would the IJN be hugely worried till the fleet puts to sea they will know where all the major units are at. Japanese naval attaches fairly openly will just walk past Pearl or San Diego and do a head count on whats in port. We can slip out detached units of course but big elements? Impossible to hide at least that ships are on the move. Till that happens Japan has crushing combat power advantage in the region.

If the fleet puts to sea, Japan will know and they will know that it hasn't returned to port. If the fleet prepares to relocate (support personal, supplies, etc) that would be more subtle but given time also noticed. Till the fleet arrives in the Philippines the IJN would have no clue where the fleet is. Just as we had no clue when the IJN carrier force went MIA right before Pearl. We knew that it wasn't in its regular anchorage. The navy assumed Philippines and not pearl, Oops. We judged the capability correct and general intentions but not the target. Japan could make like deductions.

If fleet goes MIA from Pearl and doesn't come back after two weeks there could be a couple of reasons.

A) War Games / Exercise
B) Patrol
C) Relocation
D) ...

Unless the Japanese are stupid lucky enough to blunder across the ships they will have no clue what we would be up to till the ships return to port. Again they have a bucket of options to consider and prepare to react too. Japan would have roughly a month before the Pacific Fleet could be in a location to be a direct threat and I am sorry till that fleet arrives in the Philippines the IJN does indeed have crushing advantage in combat power. US Asiatic Fleet has exactly ONE heavy combatant USS Huston. Japan could easily contain this and have plenty to face RN, RAN and the Dutch forces in the area.

So again in the short term Japan would have options and the ability to react.

To be honest I don't think the problem would be difficult questions so much as there is always a chance of a flat out no. However as stated you have America's long time competition with Japan, a certain amount of racism, plus actual threat, plus an actual incident and per your plan the thrill of actual victories to balance against calculations of partisan gain.

We agree to disagree that Congress is going to react as FDR wants if he sends a DD out to die.

I think the sense of opportunity will carry it.

See above.
 
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