ivanotter said:
Could Japan have made an agreement with US, avoiding the oil embargo? no oil-> no invasion of anything
Maybe, with access to Burmese oil. (IIRC, Burma was exporting then.)
ivanotter said:
Would a war focused on Indonesia, etc, (Dutch and British) have provided enough raw amterials in the short run to fuel an offensive against India and dominance of Indian Ocean?
Not immediately, but within about 6mo, IMO, yes.
ivanotter said:
Would such a move have exposed the entire Japanese fleet and transport to the Philipines and to Pearl's forces? Philipines would have been in the middle of transport routes.
With the U.S. not at war, no.
ivanotter said:
Would US just have looked on?
Yes, until there was a sufficiently serious incident in the Atlantic to bring the U.S. in against Germany, or in the Pacific against Japan. (A variety of Neutrality Patrol for U.S. supplies to Oz would not surprise me.)
ivanotter said:
What were the real possibilities of a Japanese-German link-up? There was no coordinated efforts of anything.
Near zero, IMO. The Germans really didn't trust Japan, suspecting she only wanted to leech tech. Japan wasn't exceptionally co-operative with Germany, either.
Archytas said:
As mentioned Japan also captures hundreds of allied merchant ships
How, exactly, does Japan just "capture" these ships?
Archytas said:
Moreover, by enabling and abetting insurrections in Burma and the Dutch Indies, Japan ensures that these countries continue oil production and supply Japan with rice and oil.
What "insurrections"?
Archytas said:
Without access through the Suez Canal and facing the Japanese navy in the Indian Ocean
When did Britain lose control of the sea? And do you seriously, genuinely think Japan was capable of defeating Britain in a stand-up fight at sea?
Archytas said:
The US cannot afford to go to war and lose access to the Mediterranean, Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.


That's nonsensical.
Archytas said:
Canada would sue for peace since it could not win alone and could face destruction of its ships and an invasion
Canada risked invasion from Japan about as much as invasion from Mars.

And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to learn Canada had more shipbuilding capacity than Japan.
As for Oz, NZ, &/or Canada surrendering, hell would freeze over, first. And Winston? Satan would be coaching the Stanley Cup winners, first.
Archytas said:
With the British fleet decimated
When did this happen?
Archytas said:
damaged at harbor in Madagascar even by Japanese subs.
That is far from being able to stage
a major amphibious operation that distant.
Archytas said:
with Japan focused in the Indian Ocean, the Pacific becomes safer for the Philippines and America.
That is the single thing you've gotten right.