I’m thinking about a TL where the Spanish civil war ends in a stalemate. Following the peace conference in Lisbon sponsored by the British and French (which support the democratic forces), the Germans and Italians (which support Franco and its allies) and the Russians (which support the communists and the other left-wing extremist movements) an agreement is reached. In the Lisbon treaty the following decisions are made:
- The territories that have distinctive cultural and linguistic differences from the Castilian ones will have a vote to choose to stay with Spain or to go their separate way;
- After those decisions, free elections will take place to choose a new government
- In the interim period all armed groups that participated in the war will be disarmed and a new national army will be created under the supervision of the international forces that will oversee the peace agreement
- Forces from Latin American countries and the USA will maintain the peace during this period, substituting the forces from the sponsors of the peace conference that immediately after the cease-fire entered Spain (mainly from the UK, France, Germany and Italy – The Soviet presence was just a token one)
In the votes that follow the agreement the following status quo is settled:
- Catalonia becomes independent
- The Basque Country becomes independent
- Galicia chooses to be incorporated into Portugal, while maintaining a special autonomous status
- The remainder of the Spanish territory stays together along with the former Spanish colonial possessions
During this time troops from Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico and the USA arrive in Spain and substitute the ones from European countries.
The following elections result in:
- Spain goes right with Franco and, because of the territorial losses, is much more pro Axis then in our TL
- In Galicia, the regional government is also right-wing, but following the Portuguese political corporate-fascist style
- The Basque Country goes with a Centre-Leftist government coalition of several political forces including the local communists – This will be a very close ally to France
- Catalonia goes communist after an election that favoured both the communists and the anarquists the first ones are able to gain the hold of power after a week’s street fighting in Barcelona. This happens without any intervention from the Brazilian forces stationed there. Catalonia goes the Soviet way.
Thoughts on this scenario, both for Iberia as well for Europe and the ensuing WWII?
Which PODs could make this come true?