WWII - Splited Iberia

I’m thinking about a TL where the Spanish civil war ends in a stalemate. Following the peace conference in Lisbon sponsored by the British and French (which support the democratic forces), the Germans and Italians (which support Franco and its allies) and the Russians (which support the communists and the other left-wing extremist movements) an agreement is reached. In the Lisbon treaty the following decisions are made:

- The territories that have distinctive cultural and linguistic differences from the Castilian ones will have a vote to choose to stay with Spain or to go their separate way;
- After those decisions, free elections will take place to choose a new government
- In the interim period all armed groups that participated in the war will be disarmed and a new national army will be created under the supervision of the international forces that will oversee the peace agreement
- Forces from Latin American countries and the USA will maintain the peace during this period, substituting the forces from the sponsors of the peace conference that immediately after the cease-fire entered Spain (mainly from the UK, France, Germany and Italy – The Soviet presence was just a token one)

In the votes that follow the agreement the following status quo is settled:
- Catalonia becomes independent
- The Basque Country becomes independent
- Galicia chooses to be incorporated into Portugal, while maintaining a special autonomous status
- The remainder of the Spanish territory stays together along with the former Spanish colonial possessions

During this time troops from Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico and the USA arrive in Spain and substitute the ones from European countries.

The following elections result in:
- Spain goes right with Franco and, because of the territorial losses, is much more pro Axis then in our TL
- In Galicia, the regional government is also right-wing, but following the Portuguese political corporate-fascist style
- The Basque Country goes with a Centre-Leftist government coalition of several political forces including the local communists – This will be a very close ally to France
- Catalonia goes communist after an election that favoured both the communists and the anarquists the first ones are able to gain the hold of power after a week’s street fighting in Barcelona. This happens without any intervention from the Brazilian forces stationed there. Catalonia goes the Soviet way.

Thoughts on this scenario, both for Iberia as well for Europe and the ensuing WWII?
Which PODs could make this come true?
 
Galicia would never, ever, ever accept being incorporated into Portugal. This is a very annoying cliché that keeps appearing once and again.

Also, the political setup makes no sense. In Galicia, nationalism was rather liberal with a moderate leftist influence, so galician nationalists would never accept an union with a corporate Portugal. On the other hand, basque nationalism has a *very* conservative, even antilliberal basis. Nationalist Basque Leftists in the 30's is something as plausible as Libertarian Stalinists. Not to mention that communism was very weak in the Basque Country at the time, or that, since the Civil War was not a war by regions, but by ideologies, you are putting together conservative regions like Castilla and Navarra with republican ones like Madrid or Andalucia. this would not solve anything, and create an enormous clusterfuck in the iberian peninsula.

Also, the idea of international interposition troops is something very typical from the post-WWII mindset, but was really unlikely in the 30's. And there's no way the US would abandon their isolationism to send soldiers patroling spanish territory. Sorry, but this scenario is bordering ASB.
 
Galicia would never, ever, ever accept being incorporated into Portugal. This is a very annoying cliché that keeps appearing once and again.

Also, the political setup makes no sense. In Galicia, nationalism was rather liberal with a moderate leftist influence, so galician nationalists would never accept an union with a corporate Portugal. On the other hand, basque nationalism has a *very* conservative, even antilliberal basis. Nationalist Basque Leftists in the 30's is something as plausible as Libertarian Stalinists. Not to mention that communism was very weak in the Basque Country at the time, or that, since the Civil War was not a war by regions, but by ideologies, you are putting together conservative regions like Castilla and Navarra with republican ones like Madrid or Andalucia. this would not solve anything, and create an enormous clusterfuck in the iberian peninsula.

Also, the idea of international interposition troops is something very typical from the post-WWII mindset, but was really unlikely in the 30's. And there's no way the US would abandon their isolationism to send soldiers patroling spanish territory. Sorry, but this scenario is bordering ASB.


Thanks for your input. You really point out some good questions that I'll try to iron out in this TL scenario. Anyway here are some comments on your comments (lol):

- Galicia: The decision to be incorporated into Portugal results of a mix of a greater connection with the northern Portuguese regions during the civil war (this TL will have a much bloodier and violent – if that is possible- civil war) and the extra help received from the neighbouring Minho and Trás-os-Montes regions of Portugal, together with the acceptance by Portugal to receive tens of thousands of refuges that after the cease fire return home indoctrinated by the politics of the Portuguese Estado Novo will create the conditions for that decision to be made in the ballots.
- As for the remainder splitting regions of Spain, I decided to go along the cultural/linguistic differences because on the long term these are stronger than the politic ones. As I said before this is a much different civil war than our TL.

As for presence of foreign troops in Spain, I intend to have entire units of the several European powers fighting in the civil war under the banner of both sides (Perhaps there will even be a third side to the all mess). The front lines will be completely different and the navies of the different European countries will allow for disembarks in areas that otherwise would be completely impossible for them to get to. On the other hand the Republicans shall be much stronger in the North due to the proximity of the French Border, which will allow the entrance by land of people and material to the Republican side. The Nationalists will receive their help through the Portuguese border and the ports in the South Med they control.
The nationalists will grab Galicia with a surprise landing in the beginning of the war in La Coruña, the Italian Navy will give them a lift) and they will go as far as the Asturias mountains. With the continuation of the war the front line will gradually recede till if cuts through the middle of Galicia. The ferocity of the fighting, the aerial bombing of the cities and the persecution carried out by the Nationalists will cause the large number of refugees seeking refuge in Portugal that I mentioned before.

The presence of the interposition troops would be the final effective measure taken by the League of Nations and I justify it by the former large presence of foreign irregulars in the war. Although I must agree with you about the American isolationism.

Please feel free to add some suggestions that you think might make sense..

Anybody else as any critic/input/comment/idea on this?
 
- Galicia: The decision to be incorporated into Portugal results of a mix of a greater connection with the northern Portuguese regions during the civil war (this TL will have a much bloodier and violent – if that is possible- civil war) and the extra help received from the neighbouring Minho and Trás-os-Montes regions of Portugal, together with the acceptance by Portugal to receive tens of thousands of refuges that after the cease fire return home indoctrinated by the politics of the Portuguese Estado Novo will create the conditions for that decision to be made in the ballots.

That is just not enough to make up for 900 years of separation and mistrust.

- As for the remainder splitting regions of Spain, I decided to go along the cultural/linguistic differences because on the long term these are stronger than the politic ones. As I said before this is a much different civil war than our TL.

"Long term" means generations, not a few years. And the civil war had 0 cultural /linguistic motivations. It was exclusively a political affair.
 
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