WWII over Danzig?

[thaddeus]

what if Germany only annexed Danzig? would that lead to WWII?

if the "invasion" is from East Prussia and no crossing of Polish territory what would Poland do?

my interest is whether, having built up hostilities with Poland, ANY German leadership, not just the Nazi Party, could satisfy the public with such limited action.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Corridor#mediaviewer/File:Polish_Corridor.PNG

this "saner" policy would be intended to keep the Polish army arrayed against the USSR.

IMO (often wrong but never in doubt!) Poland could never strike any deal with Soviets simply because of geography.

(saving the "insane" for an invasion of Switzerland https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=332851 AND depending on Allied reaction, Norway)

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

Okay, I assume for this having any other German government than the Nazis in leadership. Ironically the Nazis had the best connections to Poland of all German governments past 1919, BTW.

Anyway, in 1939 the Polish government stated that the status of Danzig would be not renegotiable and indeed a casus belli. Given that there were relative good connections between the German and Polish governments of that time, we can be sure this situation would be the very same with any other German government, which had likely much worse relations to Poland. That having said, yes, Poland would have gone for war over Danzig, and with Poland France as well. If Britain joined in is a matter of question.

 

[Cahaya Purnama]

Okay, I assume for this having any other German government than the Nazis in leadership. Ironically the Nazis had the best connections to Poland of all German governments past 1919, BTW.

Anyway, in 1939 the Polish government stated that the status of Danzig would be not renegotiable and indeed a casus belli. Given that there were relative good connections between the German and Polish governments of that time, we can be sure this situation would be the very same with any other German government, which had likely much worse relations to Poland. That having said, yes, Poland would have gone for war over Danzig, and with Poland France as well. If Britain joined in is a matter of question.

Britain should be worried war could break any timesnow

 

[Intosh]

Okay, I assume for this having any other German government than the Nazis in leadership. Ironically the Nazis had the best connections to Poland of all German governments past 1919, BTW.

Anyway, in 1939 the Polish government stated that the status of Danzig would be not renegotiable and indeed a casus belli. Given that there were relative good connections between the German and Polish governments of that time, we can be sure this situation would be the very same with any other German government, which had likely much worse relations to Poland. That having said, yes, Poland would have gone for war over Danzig, and with Poland France as well. If Britain joined in is a matter of question.

No invasion of Dantzig by the Germans will be seen as a real Casus Belli by the Poles, only if the Germans decided to attack the polish Post Office or the Westerplatte fort.

The Poles will never attack Germany because it was too risky diplomatically as the Polish feared that the Western Allies could rethink their commitment to alliance. In OTL, the Poles even cancelled a part of their mobilisation because the Western Allies asked it, to their great loss.

In summer 1939, war with Germany was imminent and the Western Allies and Poland were doing anything to prevent awar just to have severals weeks or months more for preparations.

 

[Snaut]

Okay, I assume for this having any other German government than the Nazis in leadership. Ironically the Nazis had the best connections to Poland of all German governments past 1919, BTW.

Anyway, in 1939 the Polish government stated that the status of Danzig would be not renegotiable and indeed a casus belli. Given that there were relative good connections between the German and Polish governments of that time, we can be sure this situation would be the very same with any other German government, which had likely much worse relations to Poland. That having said, yes, Poland would have gone for war over Danzig, and with Poland France as well. If Britain joined in is a matter of question.

Poland was ready to talk the talk, but if it would walk the walk is another matter entirely. Reasons included:

1) Danzig being separate from Germany was vital to Poland in the 1920s before it had built up its own seaport to a decent size. As time went by its importance decreased, and in the long term it could have become entirely dispensible.

2) Poland's opposition to German demands in OTL were not as much about Danzig as about the fact that they came as a package deal which would have involved Germany dragging Poland into whatever wild schemes Hitler might have wanted to hatch.

3) As Intosh says, Poland would need to take the western powers' behavior into account. Since you assume a non-Nazi Germany, it is probably a Germany which has not committed gaffes like the occupation of Prague and has not completely ruined its relations with Britain and France. So that is another reason for increased caution.

 

[Michele]

If Britain joined in is a matter of question.

Not really.
Read Article 2 of the British-Polish Treaty. No such article would ever be necessary for a normal situation of two countries vowing to help each other in defending just their own national territory. But the careful phrasing of that article is meant to cover a special situation - Gdansk.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

Well, the question is, if Britain honoured this treaty.

 

[thaddeus]

Poland was ready to talk the talk, but if it would walk the walk is another matter entirely. Reasons included:

1) Danzig being separate from Germany was vital to Poland in the 1920s before it had built up its own seaport to a decent size. As time went by its importance decreased, and in the long term it could have become entirely dispensible.

2) Poland's opposition to German demands in OTL were not as much about Danzig as about the fact that they came as a package deal which would have involved Germany dragging Poland into whatever wild schemes Hitler might have wanted to hatch.

3) As Intosh says, Poland would need to take the western powers' behavior into account. Since you assume a non-Nazi Germany, it is probably a Germany which has not committed gaffes like the occupation of Prague and has not completely ruined its relations with Britain and France. So that is another reason for increased caution.

1) my thinking JUST Danzig might be dispensable for Poland and a regime in Germany would have to gain SOMETHING from Poland, having fanned the revanchist flames?

2)good point, they feared being turned into bigger version of Slovak Republic. ITTL they are not invading east, the Polish "help" against USSR occurs "since they are stuck in the middle."

3)the invasion of Czechoslovakia occurs, so relations with the Allies are soured.

 

[Michele]

Well, the question is, if Britain honoured this treaty.

The fact is that they could very well have offered the Poles a treaty providing the standard protection to both sides - we'll fight if a third party attacks your territory. Instead the British offered protection against a German move on Gdansk. Given that the whole issue of supporting Poland was entirely a unilateral choice by the British - remember, this treaty was preceded by the nearly unprecedented move of offering a unilateral guarantee to Poland - I don't see why they should offer something they weren't going to deliver.

 

[thaddeus]

The fact is that they could very well have offered the Poles a treaty providing the standard protection to both sides - we'll fight if a third party attacks your territory. Instead the British offered protection against a German move on Gdansk. Given that the whole issue of supporting Poland was entirely a unilateral choice by the British - remember, this treaty was preceded by the nearly unprecedented move of offering a unilateral guarantee to Poland - I don't see why they should offer something they weren't going to deliver.

thanks, can't find a copy of the treaty online, may have to locate real book!

wonder what form British support would take if only limited German aim of seizing Gdansk(Danzig)?

same actions as OTL? with a blockade and dispatch of BEF?

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

As the treaty was of 1939 OTL, we need to keep in mind, that here we have no Austrian Corporal as leaders. Would the Brits make such a treaty nonetheless?

 

[thaddeus]

As the treaty was of 1939 OTL, we need to keep in mind, that here we have no Austrian Corporal as leaders. Would the Brits make such a treaty nonetheless?

well ... in my FICTION I'm using Goering as leader since that would be the smallest POD.

guess you could assume he would be less threatening to the British?

of course my question was whether ANY German government could annex Danzig and avoid a war? (having followed the OTL of annexing Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Memel)

the goal is to satisfy German revanchist claims on Poland while allowing the Polish military to remain basically intact (maybe a bloody nose?) and arrayed against the USSR.

(let's assume for a moment Goering would not have any plan to invade USSR, as he was a known skeptic of that idea. my thinking he would like to keep a viable Polish military, not divide the country and bring the Soviets to the Vistula River?)

 

[Simreeve]

By that point, who's going to believe that this is the Germans' last territorial ambition in Europe?

 

[thaddeus]

By that point, who's going to believe that this is the Germans' last territorial ambition in Europe?

only propaganda value is that they are uniting German speaking areas.

MIGHT help with U.S. public opinion versus colonial powers of GB, France, and Netherlands?

one remote (not with Hitler) possibility would cede Memel port to Poland along with some type of corridor there? (probably annexed from unlucky Lithuania? with a token sliver of East Prussia?) in exchange Poland gives up Polish corridor and Danzig.

 

[pompejus]

By that point, who's going to believe that this is the Germans' last territorial ambition in Europe?

The thing is, Germany had a pretty good claim to Danzig, it was a city filled with Germans, who wanted to be part of Germany and which had been German for quite a long time. So if the Germans had demanded Danzig before the Sudetenland or even Austria, I think they could have gotten away with it. Actualy, even after Sudetenland it is possible, if they play it diplomatically. That said, Hitler was a terrible diplomat and after the Germans annexed non-German Czechia everybody knew what the Nazi's were planning. But I believe that a different German government could have gotten Danzig, assuming they only wanted Danzig from Poland and not the corridor, or Polish Silesia or whatever, especialy considering that Danzig wasn't technically Polish.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

well ... in my FICTION I'm using Goering as leader since that would be the smallest POD.

guess you could assume he would be less threatening to the British?

of course my question was whether ANY German government could annex Danzig and avoid a war? (having followed the OTL of annexing Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Memel)

the goal is to satisfy German revanchist claims on Poland while allowing the Polish military to remain basically intact (maybe a bloody nose?) and arrayed against the USSR.

(let's assume for a moment Goering would not have any plan to invade USSR, as he was a known skeptic of that idea. my thinking he would like to keep a viable Polish military, not divide the country and bring the Soviets to the Vistula River?)

Well, Hitler offered accepting the Corridore if he got Danzig and an extraterritorial route already in 1938, before Czechoslovakia. That offer no other German government would likely make. Only later other points were introduced into the negotiations. Poland refused. Having that in mind, yes, I think any German attempt on Danzig would cause a war.

To be clear, I don't know how honest these offers were. But as Beck and Göring were nearly d'accord earlier, which changed soon enough, I guess it was, at least until about spring 1939.

 

[thaddeus]

The thing is, Germany had a pretty good claim to Danzig, it was a city filled with Germans, who wanted to be part of Germany and which had been German for quite a long time. So if the Germans had demanded Danzig before the Sudetenland or even Austria, I think they could have gotten away with it. Actualy, even after Sudetenland it is possible, if they play it diplomatically. That said, Hitler was a terrible diplomat and after the Germans annexed non-German Czechia everybody knew what the Nazi's were planning. But I believe that a different German government could have gotten Danzig, assuming they only wanted Danzig from Poland and not the corridor, or Polish Silesia or whatever, especialy considering that Danzig wasn't technically Polish.

good point as Poland received territory during Munich Agreement period. sort of muddled the picture even if Poland wasn't an ally of Germany.

as stated they got the sequence all wrong, Danzig and Memel before seizing the rest of Czechoslovakia?

 

[pompejus]

good point as Poland received territory during Munich Agreement period. sort of muddled the picture even if Poland wasn't an ally of Germany.

as stated they got the sequence all wrong, Danzig and Memel before seizing the rest of Czechoslovakia?

I would say go for Danzig even before Sudetenland. No other country suffered from Austria joining Germany. When Gdynia was build Danzig wasn't important anymore for Poland, except for pride. If Poland lost Danzig, it wouldn't lose much. The loss of Sudetenland though crippled Czechoslovakia. It showed that Hitler would ruin other countries with his claimed goal to unite the German people. The moment Hitler took the Sudetenland, other countries started to prepare for war, knowing that only time was bought. When Hitler invaded rump Czechia everybody know that Hitler's claimed goal to unite the German people was rubish and he only cared for more power and territory, no matter who owned it or lived there.

 

[thaddeus]

I would say go for Danzig even before Sudetenland. No other country suffered from Austria joining Germany. When Gdynia was build Danzig wasn't important anymore for Poland, except for pride. If Poland lost Danzig, it wouldn't lose much. The loss of Sudetenland though crippled Czechoslovakia. It showed that Hitler would ruin other countries with his claimed goal to unite the German people. The moment Hitler took the Sudetenland, other countries started to prepare for war, knowing that only time was bought. When Hitler invaded rump Czechia everybody know that Hitler's claimed goal to unite the German people was rubish and he only cared for more power and territory, no matter who owned it or lived there.

you may well be correct, my thinking though is after the Sudetenland since Poland took some territory, the Allies might not view them as favorably?

but before they seize the rest of Czech land, since as you stated the mask is completely off.

 

[Snaut]

good point as Poland received territory during Munich Agreement period. sort of muddled the picture even if Poland wasn't an ally of Germany.

Britain and France did not care. They were focused on Germany, all else was secondary.

Speaking of muddled pictures, Poland did not actually take part in the Munich Conference and got nothing there. Its ultimatum to Czechoslovakia was unilateral, and made only after the Munich Conference had ended and Britain and France had already officially thrown Czechoslovakia to the wolves.