A slight variance of the scenario, Januay 1st 1952.
With France remaining in the war, Mussolini declares war to Yugosloavia instead, Bulgaria involves Germany against Greece in 1942 and some of it is granted to Italy so Germany doesn´t need to garrison the region.
The Soviet-Union and the european axis sign an armistice in 1943, allies attempts attacks on France and Spain in 1944, which fails. The Red Army invades Korea and Mandchukuo in spring 1946, Japan surrenders in May 1946, Mao attacks nationalist China in 1947 and Stalin is forced to join, early 1948 the Chinese and Russian armies strikes west.
Summer 1948, the US detonated the first atomic bomb and ask the Soviet-Union to allow the passage of Allied troops into europe, in exchange for massive post-war reconstruction help, deal is made (but is cancelled 2 years after the end of the conflict, well before it is completed, Stalin is not happy).
Latter 48 or early 49, the Kingdom of Italy "invades" the axis balkans and southern Germany before the allies can reach the region, re-establishing Austria, the allies allow it because it makes the invasion of Germany easier. Whatever remaines of non-vital German infrastructures are demolished by the allied occupation, guerilla warfare rages in former Germany, metropolitan Spain and Portugal. Some ethnic purification in the Sudetlands, Dantzig, Germans in Polish territories (both colonistes and pre-war ethnic Germans) and Saarland. Independentist movements grow in the colonies and many watch German guerilla tactics with interest.
French wheren´t considered Slavs and Dutchs where counted among the Germanic peoples, beside, a starvation-induced revolt is the last thing they need, when situation isn´t much better among certain allies and armed forces barely hold against the allies.
Poland was much weaker than Spain but fielded more than that in 39, beside those troops aren´t exactly state of the art.