WWII in 1938

The year is 1938. Europe braces for war. Germany, led by the Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler, has rearmed and seeks "lebensraum." They have already re-militarized the Rhineland and have annexed Hitler's homeland of Austria. Now they want the Sudetenland, a Germanic region of Czechloslovakia. The leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and the Soviet Union are faced with a difficult choice: stand up to Nazi Germany and begin a second Great War, or seek "peace in our time" and allow Hitler to gain in power and confidence?

In our world we know what happened. Chamberlain and Daladier sought appeasement with Hitler. But, what would have happened if they had instead stood up to him? The point of divergence could be anything really. Maybe, as Harry Turtledove has proposed, the Germans assassinate a Czech leader and show their hand. Maybe the Czechs simply refuse to sign the Munich Agreement and the Germans invade, leading to French and British reprisals. Whatever the case, here are my questions:

-If the Germans invade Czechoslovakia, how long will the conflict last and how effective will the Czech defense be?
-What were the states of the German, French, British, and Soviet militaries at this time?
-What is the most likely British and French line of strategy if a war was to begin a year earlier?
-When the Germans turn their attention to France, will they adopt a similar strategy as they did in 1940? Will the result be any different?
-If the French and British defeat the German advance, how will they proceed? Will they drive on Berlin?
-What do the Soviets do in all of this?
-Finally, what role does the United States play and do they still go to war with Japan at some point?
 
if czechoslovakia doesnt give in then germany does not attack.

they knew the wehrmacht was in no condition to fight.

but diplomatically things might get ugly if the czechs make some pogroms in retaliation of the threat and knowing that fr/gb are backing them up.
 
If the Germans choose go to war in 1938 one of two things happen. 1) They are totally defeated within twelve months. 2) There is a coup and Hitler is removed and the Nazi party dismantled.

To put things in perspective; once Cechoclazakia was fully mobilized they would have a field army of 46 divisions. France would have an army of 100 divisions. Germany at that time had about 38 divisions. So even leaving the UK and USSR completely out of it the Germans are already outnumbered more than four to one. Their handful of armored units are all equipped with Mark Ones that are light skinned, light gunned, and never meant to go into combat. They were supposed to used to train up the brand new armored forces. Likewise the Luftwaffe is still new and undersized.

They will not even have the power to conquer Czechoslovakia quickly. If even the timid French launch any sort of attack they will push all the way to the Rhine easily. They lack enough capital ships and even U-Boats to do more than annoy the British. They will have an air tight blockade and no one except Italy and maybe Poland willing to trade with them. Their economy will collapse immediately and they will be facing severe shortages of food, oil, rubber, aluminum and many other resources.

In short the Germans have absolutely no hope at all, no matter what Harry Turtledove would have you believe.
 
Also no long war in Europe means Japan remains totally focused on China. The US never has a reason to go so far as to embargo oil or freeze Japanese assets. At some point they are faced with the reality they cannot conquer all of China and come to some sort of accommodation while keeping Manchuria, Korea, and Formosa firmly in their grip.
 

iddt3

Donor
Also no long war in Europe means Japan remains totally focused on China. The US never has a reason to go so far as to embargo oil or freeze Japanese assets. At some point they are faced with the reality they cannot conquer all of China and come to some sort of accommodation while keeping Manchuria, Korea, and Formosa firmly in their grip.

The US would probably do the Oil embargo anyway, Japan was a rival in the Far East and we really didn't like what they were doing in China.
 
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