Okay, so not going to let me call off Pearl Harbor, eh? Well I had figured that you had meant I COULD pull it off. Well this changes things.
The Best Case probably remains June 1943.
The Worst Case is going to have to be revised. The best hope for the Axis is this point is reducing their enemies list. Two come to Mind: China and the Soviet Union. Japan, in a burst of Sanity, offers a last chance for Chiang Kai-Shek--a puppet leader of a unified China, a role that Pu-Yi and Wang Jingwei were not able to execute. Chiang is not happy about the deal at all, but he's surrounded by unreliable courtiers and thirty second turncoats. Chiang accepts, and becomes a knowing puppet leader. He is not forced to fight the Allies, but the Soviet Union and the USA pull off their support.
Meanwhile, the IJA now streams into Burma, supported by the IJN. India is now within grasp, thanks to arrangements with Chiang. The UK Withdraws to Calcutta, but the IJN launches landings throughout the subcontinent--and it doesn't help that the Japanese are spreading propaganda throughout the region.
Germany's revised 1942 Campaign made use of critical deception--although the Red Army had learned that the Caucasus was the German main target, thanks to Hitler's meddling, the German high Command switched the attack plan entirely when they faced an intelligence leak. With the Red Army deployed in all the wrong places, Moscow fell--and Finland surged forward into Murmansk. Leningrad would also be taken with the momentum, ending a prolonged siege.
1942 turned into 1941 all over again, as a decapitated STAVKA began issuing insane orders that could have no effect other than the deaths and encirclements of more of the Red Army. The Soviets Still held the Volga Bend and the Caucasus, and on paper at least their industrial capacity was still considerable. But their transportation network was badly effected by the loss of Moscow. The Red Army would fight as long as it could, but Germany had already killed or captured 3-4 Million Soldiers by this point. Millions more were injured or deserted under the cruelty of the commissar system.
Stalin's answer was to draft Women into the armed forces. There were few other options. But the Soviet Union needed to hold the Volga Bend to stay alive. In 1943, with domestic production running out and the Wehrmacht driving on the Volga Bend, Stalin sues for peace, receives a worse version of Brest-Litovsk, but at least he remains in charge.
The Allies are hurting in the Middle East and India. But they overcome these difficulties, as industrial production wins wars, and a fully empowered USA would gear up to win. The Italian Surrender in 1944 and subsequent joining the Allies would signal the beginning of the end--The German counter offensive would be the first victims of Atomic Bombardment, a tactic that would eventually win the war in 1948. Much of Germany and Japan lies in ruins, and SS officials and all sorts of nasties establish fiefdoms in conquered Russia.