WWII Earliest and Latest Endings POD Dec 1941

hammo1j

Donor
With all major participants involved by Dec 1941 what would the be the Earliest possible ending to WWII in Europe if the Allies had played their cards absolutely right. Similarly, if the Germans had played a blinder, how long would the war have gone on for. It think it is safe to say that it was impossible for the Germans to win at this date - the combined opposition was so strong. The judgement relies on the opposing side playing as well as they did in the OTL.

My guess is Nov 1944 would be about the earliest end. D Day could not have been earlier than June 1944. Anglo American airforces could have knocked out the oil supply and 'Market Garden' should not have been carried out on intelligence sources.

The other question is a lot harder and I dont think I have enough knowledge to give my guess on this.

I am guessing this one has been done before but I could not find it using the search facilities, so apologies if that's the case.
 
I am guessing the latest WW2 could have gone would be mid-late 1947. At which point, the United States shoves a metric ton of atomic armed B-36s down the Axis's throats.
 
Latest- Late 1945. Around that time America can nuke Berlin and Hamburg.

Earliest- April '44. That is if the idiotic invasion of Italy never happens, so the invasion of Normandy happens in '43.
 
hammo1j

If the allies played a blinder and a few things go wrong for the Axis then possibly late 43 but more likely early/mid 44. Would be helped extensively if:
a) Something goes badly wrong for the Japanese in say Malaya/Indonesia, seriously crippling their economy earlier.

b) Hitler is even dumber about Army Group A, I think it was, in winter 42/43 and Stalin/Zhukov don't concentrate so much against 6th Army. In that case you still get the historical encirclement but also an even bigger one further south and the Germans are really short of troops from then on.

c) The allies organise their air power better and concentrate on suitable targets.

d) We wean the US off the charge at the strongest point approach and get a properly organised Med campaign.

This presumes a war to the end, without it getting cut short by Hitler being overthrown and some surrender being negotiated earlier.

In terms of the Axis doing better, if they really had things go for them then getting a negotiated peace in 43/44 leaving them with most of Europe is possible but not something I would rely on. Would require them above all to realise that they were in a real fight and look for support just about anywhere. [Especially more intelligent, if not necessarily more moral, attitude in the east coupled with more rational waging of the production war and allowing tactical withdraws when required]. Coupled with a few allied errors. If you can split the allies and persuade both Stalin and the US that fighting on is pointless if terms can be agreed then Britain would be forced to the table. Do this more than 6-9 months before nukes are developed and the war may not restart when the allies get them. Can't see any lasting way of getting Japan off the hook, unless you get Germany getting nukes 1st and that is deep in ASB territory.

Steve
 
I am guessing the latest WW2 could have gone would be mid-late 1947. At which point, the United States shoves a metric ton of atomic armed B-36s down the Axis's throats.

More like 1945 with B-29s. There's no plausible way for Germany to extend its sphere such that the US does not have bases capable of reaching to the German heartland. With a ten thousand pound bomb load, a stock B-29 has a combat radius of just over seventeen hundred nautical miles, call it two thousand statute miles (Silverplated B-29 likely has more range). That means it can take off from North Africa, Israel, northern Iraq, beyond the Urals, or Iceland, drop its load on Berlin, and come back to its original base. This is excluding the fact that there's no plausible way for Germany to seize Britain and Ireland or turn them into Nazi allies. If you ignore the "Come back home" requirement, which really isn't necessary in a nuclear war (and so wasn't used with Cold War SAC mission plans), then you could probably launch from North America, landing or bailing out over a neutral nation or possibly even friendly territory depending on the dynamics.

Whether the Luftwaffe could have intercepted the B-29s is another question, but I find it doubtful. We're looking at sustained raids by hundreds of B-29s (quite possibly with thousands of B-17s and B-24s conducting simultaneous raids) for a period of several months prior to this, the Luftwaffe would have been stretched beyond its breaking point. Additionally, in the likely event of staging from Britain or Ireland, the B-29s will have defensive fighters aiding their penetration. There then is the additional problem for Nazi Germany that, historically, we could put over 800 B-29s in the air over Japan by the time the war ended. The capability of the Nazis to knock out all these aircraft is simply not there (the realistic need, they won't be able to know which carry nuclear devices that they won't even know about until the first one is dropped at which point the Nazi regime is over, I do not think it possible that they will survive even a single one due to an inevitable coup, but even then we can keep building more).

As for the earliest, I'd say by the end of 1944 for either ETO or PTO, early 1945 for them both.
 
Earliest? Late '43/early '44.

Latest? US development of nukes really mean that any effective resistance on the battlefield by the Germans or Japanese ends in '46 or maybe '47 at the latest. If either feels suicidal or is willing to engage in serious guerilla warfare (and has planned for such a scenario) then it may be possible for some faint vestige of resistance to burn on into the 50s.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Mote

Whether the Luftwaffe could have intercepted the B-29s is another question, but I find it doubtful. We're looking at sustained raids by hundreds of B-29s

Remember in the OTL, Japanese air defence of home island was no where near as sophisticated as Germans. There was No radar, night fighters or command structure. If German defences as strong as 1943 there would be no question of unescorted daylight raids and they would have suffered at night or with escort. There was no quantum leap from the B17 and B24 and Nazi fighters would have speed, altitude and firepower to bring them down.

The question of Nuking Germany without a land invasion is more complex than dropping the bomb and them surrendering. Remember dropping the bomb of 20kt is only equivalent to 5 RAF late war raids which were typically 4kt each. (800 Lancasters with 5tons of bombs). The Nazis did not surrender then.

Also an intact Nazi military might wager that the Allies have upped the stakes and use poison gas against Allied targets.
 
Mote



Remember in the OTL, Japanese air defence of home island was no where near as sophisticated as Germans. There was No radar, night fighters or command structure.

There was indeed Japanese radar and night fighters, though I don't believe that they had an IADS to the same extent that the Nazis did.

If German defences as strong as 1943 there would be no question of unescorted daylight raids and they would have suffered at night or with escort.

Why make the assumption that German defenses would be that strong? Remember, it's only in ASB territory that B-17s and B-24s with fighter escort are unable to be based close enough to bomb Germany. Furthermore, this is not a bolt from the blue strike with extensive German prep, but rather the culmination of a long campaign with multiple thousand bomber raids composed of B-29s.

There was no quantum leap from the B17 and B24 and Nazi fighters would have speed, altitude and firepower to bring them down.

Me-262 and Ta-152, but nothing else. At 30,000 feet and maximum power, a standard B-29 has a speed of 348 knots. At the expense of speed, it can climb to higher altitudes (500fpm at 36,250 feet and 100fpm at 39,650 feet, high altitude configuration can extend that to 40,100 feet). Looking at about 300 knots at and around 40Kft. That knocks the FW-190 completely out of the running (too slow and too low). The Me-109G has the same speed as the B-29 at both 30Kft and 40Kft which restricts it to a single head-on pass if control is able to vector it well enough to place it in front of the B-29 formation. The Me-262 does have a significant speed advantage (540mph at 35,300 feet) over the B-29, but has an issue with numbers. Additionally, at speeds above 350mph (necessary to intercept a B-29) it has poor handling and is not a good gun platform. I have no performance data for the Ta-152, but it would not be available in threatening numbers by August 1945.

Source for B-29
Source for Me-109G and FW-190.
Source for Me-262

Keep in mind that a Silverplated B-29 will have a performance increase over what is described here, and so the Me-109G will be slower than it and may not have the necessary altitude capability if a high altitude penetration is desired.

The question of Nuking Germany without a land invasion is more complex than dropping the bomb and them surrendering. Remember dropping the bomb of 20kt is only equivalent to 5 RAF late war raids which were typically 4kt each. (800 Lancasters with 5tons of bombs). The Nazis did not surrender then.

No, but if the tonnage of all five raids were to hit a city all at once, wiping it form the Earth and this began happening to multiple cities with accompanying declaration that this will continue until the Nazis unconditionally surrender, it is highly unlikely that there will not be a coup within the Nazi ranks.

Also an intact Nazi military might wager that the Allies have upped the stakes and use poison gas against Allied targets.

At which point the Allies start dropping lots more CW on Nazi troops and cities, likely along with some biologicals (Operation Vegetarian).
 
Earliest: How about June 1943. By this point the Axis, if they are astute, recognize that their positions are failings and go for a negotiated peace with the Allies and the Soviet Union. With the power of a Point of Departure in our hands, we can just say that both Japan and Germany make major concessions but come out well ahead, as an end to WW2.

Latest: Mid 1950s. Our Point of Deviation gives us the power to pull off the Pearl Harbor attack--a backroom deal between the Germans and the Japanese results in an attack against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union gets butchered in two way action, but Germany is very carefully avoiding an incident with the United States, going so far as to end its submarine attacks against the US navy. If the USA is going to war, it will be without a pretext. FDR eventually gets into the war in 1943 without one, but the USA is somewhat lukewarm on the conflict.

1943, however, is just too late for the Allied Cause. The Soviets have lost Moscow in a better designed 1942 campaign, and the Germans follow this up with the capture of Gorky and advance nearly to the Volga Bend--the last strongpoint of Soviet Industry. Without the US entry into the war, the Soviets sue for peace--and receive terms somewhat worse than Brest-Litovsk.

D-Day is bloodily repulsed, and the German Forces in the East drive into the Caucasus with the forced acceptance of Joseph Stalin. The loss Middle East Oil hampers the Allied War Effort every bit as much as the loss of the Eastern Front.

This war ends in the mid 1950s as a result of massive nuclear bombardment. It's interesting to note that end-war German and Japanese engineering had mastered the construction of underground cities and factories. Nothing could save them from an direct A-Bomb, however. And the United Kingdom faces nuclear reprisals as well from Germany. But the USA just made more of these devastating weapons than the Germans ever could.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Blue Max, great name and great ideas, but the idea was that Dec 1941 meant that Hitler had already declared war on the US. It's Germany v RoTW but how many rounds can the Blond Bomber last before the Allies deliver the knock-out blow.

Stuff that could help the Germans hang onto '46

1. Doenitz does not attack easy American shipping on US East Coast but continues with convoys across Atlantic. OTL This prevented the Allies almost giving Ultra secret away. IITL Nazis realise Enigma broken and get 5 dial machines which are unbreakable and tighten up their code of operations.

2. More on Jets less on V2's. R4M perfected instead.

3. Wild boar and Schrage Musik tactics against BC earlier.

4. More Generals less Hitler in the East.

5. Rationalisation and War footing with Speer and Milch in charge earlier.
 
Okay, so not going to let me call off Pearl Harbor, eh? Well I had figured that you had meant I COULD pull it off. Well this changes things.

The Best Case probably remains June 1943.

The Worst Case is going to have to be revised. The best hope for the Axis is this point is reducing their enemies list. Two come to Mind: China and the Soviet Union. Japan, in a burst of Sanity, offers a last chance for Chiang Kai-Shek--a puppet leader of a unified China, a role that Pu-Yi and Wang Jingwei were not able to execute. Chiang is not happy about the deal at all, but he's surrounded by unreliable courtiers and thirty second turncoats. Chiang accepts, and becomes a knowing puppet leader. He is not forced to fight the Allies, but the Soviet Union and the USA pull off their support.

Meanwhile, the IJA now streams into Burma, supported by the IJN. India is now within grasp, thanks to arrangements with Chiang. The UK Withdraws to Calcutta, but the IJN launches landings throughout the subcontinent--and it doesn't help that the Japanese are spreading propaganda throughout the region.

Germany's revised 1942 Campaign made use of critical deception--although the Red Army had learned that the Caucasus was the German main target, thanks to Hitler's meddling, the German high Command switched the attack plan entirely when they faced an intelligence leak. With the Red Army deployed in all the wrong places, Moscow fell--and Finland surged forward into Murmansk. Leningrad would also be taken with the momentum, ending a prolonged siege.

1942 turned into 1941 all over again, as a decapitated STAVKA began issuing insane orders that could have no effect other than the deaths and encirclements of more of the Red Army. The Soviets Still held the Volga Bend and the Caucasus, and on paper at least their industrial capacity was still considerable. But their transportation network was badly effected by the loss of Moscow. The Red Army would fight as long as it could, but Germany had already killed or captured 3-4 Million Soldiers by this point. Millions more were injured or deserted under the cruelty of the commissar system.

Stalin's answer was to draft Women into the armed forces. There were few other options. But the Soviet Union needed to hold the Volga Bend to stay alive. In 1943, with domestic production running out and the Wehrmacht driving on the Volga Bend, Stalin sues for peace, receives a worse version of Brest-Litovsk, but at least he remains in charge.

The Allies are hurting in the Middle East and India. But they overcome these difficulties, as industrial production wins wars, and a fully empowered USA would gear up to win. The Italian Surrender in 1944 and subsequent joining the Allies would signal the beginning of the end--The German counter offensive would be the first victims of Atomic Bombardment, a tactic that would eventually win the war in 1948. Much of Germany and Japan lies in ruins, and SS officials and all sorts of nasties establish fiefdoms in conquered Russia.
 
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