WWII delayed until 1940

Suppose that after British guarantees to Poland Hitler falls down the stairs and is incapacitated for several weeks. The opportunity to launch Fall Weiss in fall campaign season passes and thus the war is delayed until spring.

1. Is German economy able to handle the additional months? If not, are we going to see simple downscaling or some sort of meltdown or perhaps late fall or winter war against Poland cannot be avoided?
2. Would the strength disparity between Germany and Poland lessen or increase in that period?
3. Is it enough time for the Allies to take on more of an active stance from the beginning of WWII?
 
As they've managed to somehow stumble through the winter of 1939 without collapsing, I presume they'd managed it with or without Poland. I do not think Poland added anything of critical importance at least in the short term.

OTOH they might be some payments or debts coming due that Germany managed to avoid because of war. I can't recall any without consulting some literature, so perhaps someone might shed some light on this subject?

I don't think the balance of power would shift significantly. Not unless there is an ongoing crisis. If for example Germany mobilizes or something. I don't think the exact clauses of M-R pact were publicly disclosed. For all everyone knew it was just a neutrality pact.

As Allies did not manage to prepare themselves in eight months with actual war declared, they wouldn't in much less alarming situation, I presume.
 
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Don't forget that the Allies have now had more opportunity to rearm, build more Spitfires for example, although yes production would still need to be fully ramped up to full war scale. Imagine though the British army taking the field from the start with Matilda 2 and Crusaders in the frontline with the lights reserved for training and reserve only and in at least two fully organised armoured divisions too.
 
Don't forget that the Allies have now had more opportunity to rearm, build more Spitfires for example, although yes production would still need to be fully ramped up to full war scale. Imagine though the British army taking the field from the start with Matilda 2 and Crusaders in the frontline with the lights reserved for training and reserve only and in at least two fully organised armoured divisions too.

As I said in an edit, they had the eight month window of opportunity to arm themselves during phony war and they didn't use it. Without declaration of war it all looks much less alarming so why would that change?
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
France and Britain started there major push within Peacetime limits in 1937 and first fruits of that coming online in 1939. Germany was already maxed out due to financial constants. Britain and France had only just got the boot up the ass to build up. I have asked this question in the Past and the main stumbling block is Germany going Bankrupt and having to invade when it did. Get past that the biggest winner due to ramp-ping up Production is France.

France in May 1940 was only just starting to get it's more advanced weapons systems in Numbers, This had 2 effects they where not around in numbers and nobody had built up experience in there maintenance and use, no build up of spares and knowing what parts wore out and so forth.

OTL for example French Fighter availability was less than 29% and Operations per day was rare to get about 3 a day mostly 1-2 flights a day. Compared to 4-6 actions a day from a bf109( later called the Me109). Most of this was due to everything being new and rushed and no infrastructure being in place example, Dewoitine D520 just before the German invasion was being produced at 10 per day well in excess of the 150 a month Production of the Bf109.
The Ground crews where just getting used to this new advanced machine.

So the training of Maintenance crews, Pilots and supporting infrastructure was not yet in place to take advantage of the Potential numbers,

You delay the start of the war by 6-12 Months Germany is screwed as it will face a proportionally much better prepared France and Britain due to there combined industrial potential far outstrips Germany without the resources of Poland and Western Europe. Time is mostly on the allied side.

German loses will be higher in Poland as they have probably got the 144 Morane-Saulnier M.S.406( probably the slightly better M.S.410) in service. That is so much of an advance of the PZL types. Flip side the time of the 1941 invasion of France the Germans are getting Me109F's and first of the Fw190's ( OTL There were 102 Fw 190 A-1s built between June and late October 1941)

And yes I am biased you get things like the VG-33 in production and fighting

http://img475.imageshack.us/img475/8235/vg33highrez8lm.jpg
 
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And a lot more equipment that had been ordered in the USA, especially aircraft, would have been delivered. Whether the French forces would have been able to get all of it into operational service is questionable, but even some of it would raise their effectiveness considerably.
 
Originally posted by Shaby
As they've managed to somehow stumble through the winter of 1939 without collapsing, I presume they'd managed it with or without Poland. I do not think Poland added anything of critical importance at least in the short term.

After France and Britain declared war on Germany on 3rd of September 1939, Germany didn't have to pay any debts they owed to British and French - that alone would have helped their economy. Another thing that kept them floating was German-Soviet trade agreement from August 1939, modified after the conqest of Poland. Germany received from USSR a lot of raw materials, food and oil paying very little for it.
Not to mention the fact that when your country is at war it is easier to make people suffer some ecnomic difficulties.
 
After France and Britain declared war on Germany on 3rd of September 1939, Germany didn't have to pay any debts they owed to British and French - that alone would have helped their economy. Another thing that kept them floating was German-Soviet trade agreement from August 1939, modified after the conqest of Poland. Germany received from USSR a lot of raw materials, food and oil paying very little for it.
Not to mention the fact that when your country is at war it is easier to make people suffer some ecnomic difficulties.

Was any of those debts due in the immediate future, so that Germany bailed out of those by declaring war?

If I understood OP correctly, than war would be delayed until spring, which leaves little time for Allies to redress the situation armament wise. If, say, war starts in April or May and Poland falls as per schedule, say late April or late May. Could Wehrmacht be reoriented and begin Fall Gelb by, say, August? Would it be enough time to reorganize the forces and take jump off positions?

I don't see why Germans couldn't still trade with Soviets through the Baltic? Don't see anything stopping them, especially if there is no war. Hitler could still say to Stalin that they are going to split Poland in spring, next year.
 
Originally posted by Shaby
Was any of those debts due in the immediate future, so that Germany bailed out of those by declaring war?

To be honest, I have no idea. But German government and companies borrowed money quite often, so at least some them were. Not to mention Germans didn't have to pay interests for credits, etc. Also German gocernment owed quite a lot to German citizens (Mefo bills).

If I understood OP correctly, than war would be delayed until spring, which leaves little time for Allies to redress the situation armament wise. If, say, war starts in April or May and Poland falls as per schedule, say late April or late May. Could Wehrmacht be reoriented and begin Fall Gelb by, say, August? Would it be enough time to reorganize the forces and take jump off positions?

I doubt it. War against Poland didn't cost Germany too many soldiers, but their losses in equipment (especially tanks) were significant. Poland was also the very first field test of German armoured divisions and blitzkrieg tactics (yes, I know Polish campaign was not classic Blitzkrieg, but it had most of its elements, like long and quick raids of German mechanized forces, close air support, etc.). Germans needed time to reorganize and resupply their forces and implement some changes in tacttics and logistics according to lessons learned during the Polish campaign. Contrary to common believe, not everything there went perfectly and German officers had every reason to believe that the fight against better equipped western allies would be much harder.
BTW, I think April is a little too early. Polish weather tend to be capricious at the time, which could ground Luftwaffe and make most of Polish roads harder to use.

I don't see why Germans couldn't still trade with Soviets through the Baltic? Don't see anything stopping them, especially if there is no war. Hitler could still say to Stalin that they are going to split Poland in spring, next year.

Sure, they could. Assuming Stalin keeps his word. But that would have given time to the allies (and Poles) to grow stronger.
 
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