A larger
Operation Judgement (and by implication
Op MB8) with Fekkin bells on - 3 RN carriers launch a far larger strike agaisnt the Italian fleet resulting in all BBs CC and CL along with several DDs being sunk and so badly damaged that they play no further part in the war
Malta is then reinforced (including Spitfires) - resutling in far worse logsitics for the Axis forces in North Africa and the Island becomes unassailable by April 41
The Australian Government and the New Zealand Government get wind of the planned intervention in Greece and delay giving permission for their forces to be used (OTL they were kept in the dark)
Although units are sent to Crete to free up the Greek Garrison for service on the mainland
This has several implications
Stronger Commonwealth forces in North Africa
Weaker Axis forces in North Africa
Operation Sonnenblume is far less likely to result in an Axis victory and more likely to result in a continued stalemate as the Commonwealth forces increase in strength
Operation Mercury is far less likely to be attempted and if it was far less likely to be a success
OTL during the Greek, Crete and Sonnonblume campaigns the British lost about a division and a half of troops and over 5 divisions worth of heavy equipment and transport - here they do not
Post the Japanese occupation of French Indo China - the Australian and New Zealand Governments demand the return of their troops and the 2nd Australian Expeditionary force returns to Australia by August 41 - with the 6th and 9th AIDs sent to reinforce the 8th AID in Malaya
The British replace them with forces from the UK
The British having done far better in North and East Africa are able to send a Brigades worth of older armour to allow the Australians to form their 1st Armour Division - intended only for training the unit is instead stood up in Singapore
The RAAF and RNZAF are reinforced by about 3 Squadrons of Bombers, 5 of fighters and an additional Recce Squadron again due to a freeing up of RAF fighter command Spitfire Squadrons from the UK to Malta and North Africa freeing up Hurricane and P40 Squadrons
The Navy largely spared the 'Verdun of the Med' is able to send stronger forces to the region
This results in the Japanese plan to invade Malaya to be changed with one of the Divisions and transport intended for the Phillipines being added to the Malaya force instead
This all result in a faster victory in North Africa, Stalemate in both Malaya and the Phillipines well into 42 with far heavier losses for the Japanese with no Burma Campaign and no subsequant invasion of the DEI the wheels start to come off the Japanese war machine far earlier and their gambling of their remaining Oil reserves fails.