When many WWI soldiers left to the front, they expected the war to be over by Christmas.
And while the initial supplies were burnt through much faster than expected and indeed long before Christmas 1914, the war slogged on way past the expected date of conclusion.
What would have happened if the war had indeed ended by Christmas 1914 ?
To this effect, we will assume the following :
- The Russian High Command doesn't send two generals who hate each other into East Prussia, making the few battles in Mazuria incredibly less catastrophic than OTL, leaving those forces a significant threat for the months to come.
- France's very early push is heavily concentrated and leads to the fall of Thionville and the surrounding iron mines, starving Germany of most of its iron. This is very important, because even with Thionville, the Germans were importing French ores from the Briey-Longwy area.
This also forces the Germans to send additional forces from the Schlieffen push back into Lorraine. Of course, this will be compensated by lesser French forces, but should leave the Entente capable of stablising the frontline maybe even a bit further from Paris.
Between these two, and the economic warfare, this leaves a Germany completely starved of iron ore. Swedish ore bought out by Britain, French and Thionville ore in French hands, once the German iron supplies get depleted, the German industry is in for a world of hurt.
And that is what happens a few months later. A counter-offensive on the Aisne accompanies the Russian push into Galicia, and soon Lille and Cracow are in Entente hands. France has a large portion of its Northern industrial basin back into its hands, the Russians are on Silesia's door, and the Austrians were bloodily repulsed from their attack in Serbia.
Assuming that after the fall of Cracow, the Central Powers sue for peace, what do you think would be the result of a negociated peace ?
My opinion is that the war will likely only result in 'a few' territorial transfers - Alsace-Moselle to France, Galicia-Lodomeria and chunks of Turkish Armenia to Russia, Bosnia to Serbia, adjustments in Dalmatia to Montenegro.