WWI WI - Peace demands in an Early Entente victory ?

When many WWI soldiers left to the front, they expected the war to be over by Christmas.
And while the initial supplies were burnt through much faster than expected and indeed long before Christmas 1914, the war slogged on way past the expected date of conclusion.

What would have happened if the war had indeed ended by Christmas 1914 ?
To this effect, we will assume the following :
- The Russian High Command doesn't send two generals who hate each other into East Prussia, making the few battles in Mazuria incredibly less catastrophic than OTL, leaving those forces a significant threat for the months to come.
- France's very early push is heavily concentrated and leads to the fall of Thionville and the surrounding iron mines, starving Germany of most of its iron. This is very important, because even with Thionville, the Germans were importing French ores from the Briey-Longwy area.
This also forces the Germans to send additional forces from the Schlieffen push back into Lorraine. Of course, this will be compensated by lesser French forces, but should leave the Entente capable of stablising the frontline maybe even a bit further from Paris.

Between these two, and the economic warfare, this leaves a Germany completely starved of iron ore. Swedish ore bought out by Britain, French and Thionville ore in French hands, once the German iron supplies get depleted, the German industry is in for a world of hurt.
And that is what happens a few months later. A counter-offensive on the Aisne accompanies the Russian push into Galicia, and soon Lille and Cracow are in Entente hands. France has a large portion of its Northern industrial basin back into its hands, the Russians are on Silesia's door, and the Austrians were bloodily repulsed from their attack in Serbia.

Assuming that after the fall of Cracow, the Central Powers sue for peace, what do you think would be the result of a negociated peace ?

My opinion is that the war will likely only result in 'a few' territorial transfers - Alsace-Moselle to France, Galicia-Lodomeria and chunks of Turkish Armenia to Russia, Bosnia to Serbia, adjustments in Dalmatia to Montenegro.
 
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yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Ina fast Entente victory there are alot of countries that never enters the war. A stronger Entente showing will make the Ottomans stay out most likely.

For peace demands:
Galicia and Bukovina to Russia, Alsace- Lorraine back to France, Serbia getting something from Austria- Hungary. (since Austria-Hungary probably starts falling apart with the Russians entering the Hungarian plains, more things would probably happen). Belgium probably getting something small, maybe Eupen as OTL, probably Rwanda and Burundi as OTL. And the German colonies probably are divided among the Entente.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Russia at the negotiating table and America not at the table guarantees a harsher treaty for Germany. Russia will take everything Germany lost to Poland OTL, plus more of Upper Silesia and the entirety of East Prussia.
 
Russia at the negotiating table and America not at the table guarantees a harsher treaty for Germany. Russia will take everything Germany lost to Poland OTL, plus more of Upper Silesia and the entirety of East Prussia.

I don't think it would, the Russians weren't stupid, they knew they already had enough restive Poles within the Empire's borders, the last thing they would want is even more. I don't think you would see any territorial changes in the North, instead Russians gains would be concentrated in the South and mostly in the form of puppet Kingdoms with Romanov Kings e.g. Croatia.
 
I don't think it would, the Russians weren't stupid, they knew they already had enough restive Poles within the Empire's borders, the last thing they would want is even more.
Depends on how much bother the Poles in Germany were causing them. One train of thought might be better to have pretty much all of the Poles within their own borders where they can be suitably repressed rather than some in a neighbouring country beyond their reach and lending cross-border support.
 
Thionville is vital for the Germans, and they know that. The area was very very very well fortified for its time and defended by three large field armies ready to counter attack (the fourth/five and sixth). To concentrate everything against Thionville might be insanely costly for the French, even if this might derail the German Offensive a bit (the Third might support the Fourth and attack southeast instead of supporting the Second Army in Belgium. At this point, either the French left flank around Longwy/Sedan holds (retreating isn't a defeat but it must not collapse) and the outcome is slightly better than OTL (the BEF plus the French forces at Charleroi might inflict enough losses to the First and Second and force them to stop before the Marne, albeit that's not a given) or it collapses and then Germany is in a good position to win.

About Eastern Prussia, the two generals were rivals, but they didn't hate each other like it was once said. The Russo-Japanese War's story is a myth. Cooperation was poor but Rennenkampf didn't want to stab Samsonov in the back. Actually, if Rennenkampf had received just enough supplies, he might have possibly maintained his advance in Eastern Prussia, forcing Hindenburg to abandon his magnificent but risky offensive against Samsonov. Rennemkampf just needed to maintain the pressure on the Eighth Army, to show that he could arrive and threaten its flanks. At this point, Luddendorf (who was very nervous about this possibility), might have convinced Hindenburg to avoid a battle which basically left the right flank utterly vulnerable.

Funnily enough, the Eastern Prussian Campaign would have far less bloody for both sides.

At the end of the day, nothing much was needed to win or lose during these fateful weeks.
 
Depends on how much bother the Poles in Germany were causing them. One train of thought might be better to have pretty much all of the Poles within their own borders where they can be suitably repressed rather than some in a neighbouring country beyond their reach and lending cross-border support.

It's a thought but I don't think it's a plausible one, outside Galicia Russia was a sated power in Europe, all the rhetoric was about liberating the South Slavs, giving them suitably pro Russian leaders and bringing them under the ambit of their "big brother".
 
My opinion is that the war will likely only result in 'a few' territorial transfers - Alsace-Moselle to France, Galicia-Lodomeria and chunks of Turkish Armenia to Russia, Bosnia to Serbia, adjustments in Dalmatia to Montenegro.
Yes - all empires would be in much better shape than OTL, which means more opportunities to resist and less demands on the table.
Since Austria-Hungary doesn't collapse, Eastern Europe isn't remade. Poland would still get autonomy with independence in sight - Nikolai II did promise that much and both British and French were rather sensitive to Polish question.

Also - US doesn't rise nearly as much in terms of economy and influence since European economies are not devastated by the war, US businesses don't get order from warring Entente and Entente is not indebted to US.

In the long term a short WW1 doesn't really solve anything. There still will be a round two - the question is only who fights whom.
 
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