What if Italy stayed allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary? I know Italy remained "neutral," but I was wondering if Italy did send troops to help the Central Powers, what would have changed?
Ok. PoD is August, 1914. Good up to here.
What changes? France has to guard it's southeast, Italy ties up troops that France would otherwise use in the northeast.
1. Bulgaria wouldn't have entered.
Why not?
2. France would be in a world of hurt.
More from troops being tied up than direct assault by the Italians, but yes.
3. Spain might have entered alongside Portugal, because they had possessions on the western Italian coast.
ASB. Less likely than Sweden entering the war to take Finland back from Russia.
I also know Italy was "disunited." They weren't a united country until 1867/1871 onward. Also keep in mind that they had Austrian ancestry in the north, especially around Milan and Venice.
South Tirol Italians were still under Austrian rule at this point. Milan and Venice? I don't buy it.
Ok, but wouldn't Italy be a threat to Spain?
Why would Italy be seen as a threat to Spain? By 1914, there's no way in hell Spain's going to try to press claims against Italy.
****
I'd keep it simple: German leadership is respectful towards Italian leadership, Italian leadership is receptive to offers of former Savoyard holdings in France (ok, yes, I'm going to invoke some old territorial claims, but here we're offering Italian lands to Italians), Corsica, and Tunisia. Austria plays ball, but only offers Trieste.
Given the carrot, Italy plays the pawn. It sits there doing nothing but distracting the other side's pieces. No Jutland in the Med, no offensive from Libya to Egypt. It just distracts the french on a narrow, rough terrain front. Maybe some contribution to a Russian campaign, but there's no commie menace or some such motivation. Unlikely to contribute against Serbia.
This increases pressure on the French and later British, further stretching their resources. An early breakthrough by the CP is more likely, and a collapse of Austria is likely to be slower.
Possible CP victory.