WWI in 1912: CP Greece and Ottomans, Entente Serbia and Bulgaria

BigBlueBox

Banned
In October 1912 after the Bulgarians have decisively defeated the Ottomans at the Battle of Kirk Kilisse, Austria-Hungary decides that the Balkan League has gone too far, and demands that they agree to a ceasefire with the Ottoman Empire, and that Serbia withdraw from Albania and Bulgaria withdraw from Eastern Thrace. Austrian diplomats don't clarify what they mean by "Albania", which infuriates the Serbs even more because they think Austria is trying to force them to withdraw from Kosovo. However, it also informs the Greeks that the Dual Monarchy is not opposed to Greek control of North Epirus (under the reasoning that it's better to have the Greeks control it than the Serbs or Italians). To show how serious the demand is, Austria-Hungary begins to mobilize its army.

Russia decides that this is the moment to take a stand and make up for the humiliation of 1905. After some hard negotiations and arm-twisting, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Russia come to an agreement. Serbia and Bulgaria will continue their war on the Ottoman Empire, Serbia will get its promised port in Albania and Macedonia will be split by the two countries according to the pre-war agreement. Bulgaria would get Western Thrace and part of Eastern Thrace but most of Eastern Thrace along with Constantinople would go to Russia if the Ottomans fall. Russia will declare war on Austria-Hungary if Austria-Hungary goes to war against Serbia and Bulgaria. If Austria-Hungary is defeated Serbia will also get Bosnia.

Meanwhile, Germany agrees to defend Austria from Russia and starts mobilizing too. Both the Germans and Austrians inform the Ottomans that they aren't interested in preserving Ottoman control of Albania and demand that the Ottomans agree to a ceasefire with Greece, which happens. Austria-Hungary follows through on its threat and declares war on the Serbs and Bulgarians in early November. Russia declares war on the Austrians and Germany in turn declares war on the Serbs, Bulgarians, and Russians. Due to disputes between the division of territory and some border skirmishes Greece declares war on Bulgaria. After France refuses to stop its own mobilization Germany enacts the Schlieffen Plan. Britain declares war on Germany in response.

Is this a plausible scenario? What happens next? Does Romania pick a side, and if so which one, or do they wait it out to see who the winner is? With the chance to take territory from the Austro-Hungarians, Greeks, and Ottomans Italy would be tempted to join the Entente, but is still exhausted from the Italo-Ottoman War. How long would it take them to be ready? Compared to OTL, does this scenario benefit the Entente more or the Central Powers?
 
This is a fairly plausible sequence. ImHo both of the Balkan wars had thw potential to spiral put of control like this (Constsntinople falling to Bulgaria would have oribslbt set off the powder keg)

Italy almost certainly stays out given the strains of the Italo Turkish war and the fact that Russia is much more clearly an aggressor.

IIRC the Haber process hadn't been developed yet- that is a very big deal in a long war. OTOH with Italy out and Russia less modernized and the Balma league being what it is Austria could do much better.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
This is a fairly plausible sequence. ImHo both of the Balkan wars had thw potential to spiral put of control like this (Constsntinople falling to Bulgaria would have oribslbt set off the powder keg)

Italy almost certainly stays out given the strains of the Italo Turkish war and the fact that Russia is much more clearly an aggressor.

IIRC the Haber process hadn't been developed yet- that is a very big deal in a long war. OTOH with Italy out and Russia less modernized and the Balma league being what it is Austria could do much better.
I think trading Bulgaria for Greece is a pretty good deal if Britain still joins the Entente on schedule. As posters on other threads have mentioned, the Royal Navy could do some serious damage to Greece via shore bombardment and blockades, and Bulgaria could help the Entente deal a crippling blow to the Ottomans early on without the need for a risky Gallipoli.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
If the war breaking out in 1912 leads to France not adopting OTL Joffre's War Plan, France would perform much better. Combined with Bulgaria in Entente, my verdict would be a quicker Entente victory.
 
In October 1912 after the Bulgarians have decisively defeated the Ottomans at the Battle of Kirk Kilisse, Austria-Hungary decides that the Balkan League has gone too far, and demands that they agree to a ceasefire with the Ottoman Empire, and that Serbia withdraw from Albania and Bulgaria withdraw from Eastern Thrace. Austrian diplomats don't clarify what they mean by "Albania", which infuriates the Serbs even more because they think Austria is trying to force them to withdraw from Kosovo. However, it also informs the Greeks that the Dual Monarchy is not opposed to Greek control of North Epirus (under the reasoning that it's better to have the Greeks control it than the Serbs or Italians). To show how serious the demand is, Austria-Hungary begins to mobilize its army.

Russia decides that this is the moment to take a stand and make up for the humiliation of 1905. After some hard negotiations and arm-twisting, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Russia come to an agreement. Serbia and Bulgaria will continue their war on the Ottoman Empire, Serbia will get its promised port in Albania and Macedonia will be split by the two countries according to the pre-war agreement. Bulgaria would get Western Thrace and part of Eastern Thrace but most of Eastern Thrace along with Constantinople would go to Russia if the Ottomans fall. Russia will declare war on Austria-Hungary if Austria-Hungary goes to war against Serbia and Bulgaria. If Austria-Hungary is defeated Serbia will also get Bosnia.

Meanwhile, Germany agrees to defend Austria from Russia and starts mobilizing too. Both the Germans and Austrians inform the Ottomans that they aren't interested in preserving Ottoman control of Albania and demand that the Ottomans agree to a ceasefire with Greece, which happens. Austria-Hungary follows through on its threat and declares war on the Serbs and Bulgarians in early November. Russia declares war on the Austrians and Germany in turn declares war on the Serbs, Bulgarians, and Russians. Due to disputes between the division of territory and some border skirmishes Greece declares war on Bulgaria. After France refuses to stop its own mobilization Germany enacts the Schlieffen Plan. Britain declares war on Germany in response.

Is this a plausible scenario? What happens next? Does Romania pick a side, and if so which one, or do they wait it out to see who the winner is? With the chance to take territory from the Austro-Hungarians, Greeks, and Ottomans Italy would be tempted to join the Entente, but is still exhausted from the Italo-Ottoman War. How long would it take them to be ready? Compared to OTL, does this scenario benefit the Entente more or the Central Powers?

The Greek staff could read a map just as well as anyone else on why they cannot be on the opposite side of the naval powers, relations with Bulgaria hadn't broken down yet, the king of Greece was still George I who to put it mildly did not like Germany and oh Greece and Britain where at the time discussing a direct alliance, with Britain giving Greece Cyprus and building naval bases in Cephallonia. This on top of Venizelos as an overwelmingly powerful prime minister, even more so than in 1914-15. In short Greece will be firmly on the Entente side.
 
In October 1912 after the Bulgarians have decisively defeated the Ottomans at the Battle of Kirk Kilisse, Austria-Hungary decides that the Balkan League has gone too far, and demands that they agree to a ceasefire with the Ottoman Empire, and that Serbia withdraw from Albania and Bulgaria withdraw from Eastern Thrace. Austrian diplomats don't clarify what they mean by "Albania", which infuriates the Serbs even more because they think Austria is trying to force them to withdraw from Kosovo. However, it also informs the Greeks that the Dual Monarchy is not opposed to Greek control of North Epirus (under the reasoning that it's better to have the Greeks control it than the Serbs or Italians). To show how serious the demand is, Austria-Hungary begins to mobilize its army.

Russia decides that this is the moment to take a stand and make up for the humiliation of 1905. After some hard negotiations and arm-twisting, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Russia come to an agreement. Serbia and Bulgaria will continue their war on the Ottoman Empire, Serbia will get its promised port in Albania and Macedonia will be split by the two countries according to the pre-war agreement. Bulgaria would get Western Thrace and part of Eastern Thrace but most of Eastern Thrace along with Constantinople would go to Russia if the Ottomans fall. Russia will declare war on Austria-Hungary if Austria-Hungary goes to war against Serbia and Bulgaria. If Austria-Hungary is defeated Serbia will also get Bosnia.

Meanwhile, Germany agrees to defend Austria from Russia and starts mobilizing too. Both the Germans and Austrians inform the Ottomans that they aren't interested in preserving Ottoman control of Albania and demand that the Ottomans agree to a ceasefire with Greece, which happens. Austria-Hungary follows through on its threat and declares war on the Serbs and Bulgarians in early November. Russia declares war on the Austrians and Germany in turn declares war on the Serbs, Bulgarians, and Russians. Due to disputes between the division of territory and some border skirmishes Greece declares war on Bulgaria. After France refuses to stop its own mobilization Germany enacts the Schlieffen Plan. Britain declares war on Germany in response.

Is this a plausible scenario? What happens next? Does Romania pick a side, and if so which one, or do they wait it out to see who the winner is? With the chance to take territory from the Austro-Hungarians, Greeks, and Ottomans Italy would be tempted to join the Entente, but is still exhausted from the Italo-Ottoman War. How long would it take them to be ready? Compared to OTL, does this scenario benefit the Entente more or the Central Powers?

Problem is if you check Austrian diplomacy duuring the Balkan wars they were OTL the most supportive towards Bulgaria and their goal was a Romanian-Bulgarian alliance. This proved impossible especially as it was not backed by Germany who pushed their own agenda for the first time on the Balkans. Austria was not disturbed by Bulgarian design on Thrace - Russia was. So first add a plausible POD why Austria changed its diplomatic stance completly.
 
Greece joining the Central Powers make no sense at all. They still have the common interest with the other Balkan powers in expanding against the Ottoman Empire, while their location makes them very vulnerable to the superior navy of the Entente.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Greece joining the Central Powers make no sense at all. They still have the common interest with the other Balkan powers in expanding against the Ottoman Empire, while their location makes them very vulnerable to the superior navy of the Entente.
Well the reasoning is that Bulgaria has taken or is in the process of taking most of the Ottoman land that Greece wants. It seems that to make this happen would require a PoD that gets rid of King George I earlier and also keeps Venizelos out of power. Sure, the Royal Navy should act as a deterrent but it’s not unheard of for countries to foolishly go to war under unfavorable circumstances without considering the consequences.
 
Well the reasoning is that Bulgaria has taken or is in the process of taking most of the Ottoman land that Greece wants. It seems that to make this happen would require a PoD that gets rid of King George I earlier and also keeps Venizelos out of power. Sure, the Royal Navy should act as a deterrent but it’s not unheard of for countries to foolishly go to war under unfavorable circumstances without considering the consequences.
There is still the Asia Minor coast which is rather more important than getting a larger share of the mostly non-Greek Macedonia. In OTL it was Bulgaria which was more interested in correcting the outcome of the First Balkan War and here they have more significant problems to deal with.
 

Germaniac

Donor
There will not be an intervention in the Balkan War unless one of several things happen a) Bulgaria takes Istanbul b) Italy invades Albania c) Serbia refuses to vacate Albania.

A) if Bulgaria takes the Capital protests from around Europe will force her to leave. Bulgaria will probably pull a 2nd Balkan War and refuse, leading to the British and/or Russians forcing the straights, supported by Turks in the Dardanelles. We probably see a new Treaty of Berlin put in place with the Great Powers dividing up the Empire. (Which is something that you may be suprised to learn WAS NOT something they wanted. Apart from probably Italy all the Great powers prefered the Ottomans to whatever chaos comes after.)

B and C) Albania was the ugly duckling for the Balkan States. They could have been a useful ally but They were mostly Muslim, but were by this time moving toward seperatist by the time of the war, andSerbia Montenegro and Greece only viewed Albania as a prize to be carved up. On top of that it was a priority in Italian foreign policy to gain control over Albania.

Austria-Hungary cannot allow either Serbia or Italy to hold any part of the Albanian Coast. Its as ASB as the US allowing the Soviets to annex Cuba. Albania is a knife pointed at the Austrians throat because if any power can cut off Austrias ability to reach the open sea they will be left a second class power.

Another point, Serbia and Bulgaria will have already taken their winnings by now and once there do not intend on leaving. There was no agreement before the war and it was pretty much a free for all. I really don't see how you can keep Serbia and Bulgaria friendly and not fighting each other within a year or two of victory, any longer and you risk the ethnic cleansing of the territories they want.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
There will not be an intervention in the Balkan War unless one of several things happen a) Bulgaria takes Istanbul b) Italy invades Albania c) Serbia refuses to vacate Albania.

A) if Bulgaria takes the Capital protests from around Europe will force her to leave. Bulgaria will probably pull a 2nd Balkan War and refuse, leading to the British and/or Russians forcing the straights, supported by Turks in the Dardanelles. We probably see a new Treaty of Berlin put in place with the Great Powers dividing up the Empire. (Which is something that you may be suprised to learn WAS NOT something they wanted. Apart from probably Italy all the Great powers prefered the Ottomans to whatever chaos comes after.)

B and C) Albania was the ugly duckling for the Balkan States. They could have been a useful ally but They were mostly Muslim, but were by this time moving toward seperatist by the time of the war, andSerbia Montenegro and Greece only viewed Albania as a prize to be carved up. On top of that it was a priority in Italian foreign policy to gain control over Albania.

Austria-Hungary cannot allow either Serbia or Italy to hold any part of the Albanian Coast. Its as ASB as the US allowing the Soviets to annex Cuba. Albania is a knife pointed at the Austrians throat because if any power can cut off Austrias ability to reach the open sea they will be left a second class power.

Another point, Serbia and Bulgaria will have already taken their winnings by now and once there do not intend on leaving. There was no agreement before the war and it was pretty much a free for all. I really don't see how you can keep Serbia and Bulgaria friendly and not fighting each other within a year or two of victory, any longer and you risk the ethnic cleansing of the territories they want.
Serbia and Bulgaria did have an agreement before the war, and Serbia also had an agreement with Greece. It was Bulgaria and Greece that never had an agreement, and Serbia decided to ignore its agreement with Bulgaria because it was denied access to the sea through Albania. ITTL the scenario is that Austria miscalculates and assumes Bulgaria is only weeks away from taking Istanbul, so it issues dual ultimatums - one to Bulgaria demanding they evacuate eastern Thrace, and one to Serbia demanding that they vacate Albania. Russia decides to back up the Serbs over Albania and gets Bulgaria on board by coming to an agreement on splitting Thrace - Russia never threatens Bulgaria over Constantinople ITTL because Austria already has. Serbia and Bulgaria stay friendly because Serbia decides to fight over Albania with Russian support instead of giving up Albania and keeping the portions of Macedonia promised to Bulgaria as compensation. The prospect of getting Bosnia if Austria is defeated is also far more tempting than keeping more of Macedonia.

There is still the Asia Minor coast which is rather more important than getting a larger share of the mostly non-Greek Macedonia. In OTL it was Bulgaria which was more interested in correcting the outcome of the First Balkan War and here they have more significant problems to deal with.
Thrace is even more important than Asia Minor and is also disputed between Greece and Bulgaria.
 
Serbia and Bulgaria did have an agreement before the war, and Serbia also had an agreement with Greece. It was Bulgaria and Greece that never had an agreement, and Serbia decided to ignore its agreement with Bulgaria because it was denied access to the sea through Albania. ITTL the scenario is that Austria miscalculates and assumes Bulgaria is only weeks away from taking Istanbul, so it issues dual ultimatums - one to Bulgaria demanding they evacuate eastern Thrace, and one to Serbia demanding that they vacate Albania. Russia decides to back up the Serbs over Albania and gets Bulgaria on board by coming to an agreement on splitting Thrace - Russia never threatens Bulgaria over Constantinople ITTL because Austria already has. Serbia and Bulgaria stay friendly because Serbia decides to fight over Albania with Russian support instead of giving up Albania and keeping the portions of Macedonia promised to Bulgaria as compensation. The prospect of getting Bosnia if Austria is defeated is also far more tempting than keeping more of Macedonia.
Seems plausible except for the part where Austria is suddenly concerned about Bulgaria capturing Istanbul. This has never been an objective of Austria and they'd probably prefer it being part of Bulgaria rather than Russia.

Thrace is even more important than Asia Minor and is also disputed between Greece and Bulgaria.
Yes (though mostly because of Constantinople), but they can't get eastern Thrace if they're allied with the Ottomans. And at this point, even the Greek nationalists realised that they had no hope of ever holding northern Thrace and were not particularly interested anyway. So this leaves western Thrace, which is not nearly as important as Asia Minor
 
Seems plausible except for the part where Austria is suddenly concerned about Bulgaria capturing Istanbul. This has never been an objective of Austria and they'd probably prefer it being part of Bulgaria rather than Russia.

Ottomans had German advisors and it is possible, that Austria was persuaded by Germany.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Austria doesn't care if Bulgaria has Istanbul. The straights are still closed to the russians and that is a pretty important consideration for them.

Russia, as long as they are capable, WILL NOT allow any power other than the Turks or themselves controlling the straights.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Greece at this time was wiped into a fury to reclaim it's "lost lands". If the Ottomans appear to be collapsing why on Earth would they choose to ally them instead of taking a bite.

Greece at war with the Entente means the French and British, along with the Italians likely sooner, Fighting in Attica towards Athens and Crete standing no chance. Greece will be out of the war in 12 months
 
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