WWI in 1911

Have WWI start in 1911 during the Morocco Crisis.

So the war starts with France vs Germany with Russia joining France and Austria-Hungary joining Germany. It is up to you who joins whom. But explain who would win.
 
Well a different war as no Haber-Bosch process yet and the Central Powers would run out of ammunition a lot sooner. French Army still under Michel and probably more competently led than OTL at the outset. Russian military reorganisation less advanced and probably do less well than OTL but Stolypin still alive and heading the government. Young Turks have only just taken over and probably attempt to stay neutral. Britain less militarily prepared as Haldane's reforms have yet to bed in. Under Taft the US is very unlikely to want to get involved and will be offering arbitration.
 
Well a different war as no Haber-Bosch process yet and the Central Powers would run out of ammunition a lot sooner.
I'm not sure that would be a major factor. The Frank-Caro process to fix nitrogen was developed in 1898. It is very electricity intense and remains in use only where vast excesses of hydroelectric power are available (Norway). It would have probably been sufficient to produce ammunition. When Haber came along, it was efficient enough to produce fertilizer to revolutionize high-yield agriculture to this day.
 
I suppose Britain is still joining considering the Germans will force its path true Belgium. I don't know if Italy will join Berlin and Vienna. It may be the same OTL. But... the Balkan Wars are avoided. Or at least delayed. What does Serbia do? Support Russia? Or stay neutral?
 
The Frank-Caro process to fix nitrogen was developed in 1898. It is very electricity intense
Even significantly adding to the expense of prosecuting the war would have been a driver for an earlier peace settlement. The Great Powers could barely afford the war they had, never mind a more expensive version!
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Italy would probably sit out for a few years as it recovers from the invasion of Libya and consolidates its grasp over its new conquest.
 
So, it looks like a much shorter war. No U.S. involvement. It would end in more of a draw without punishing Germany so hard. It would be over before the Russian Revolution and there might not be Bolsheviks involved. Welcome to a new twentieth century.
 
Italy would probably sit out for a few years as it recovers from the invasion of Libya and consolidates its grasp over its new conquest.

The Second Moroccan Crisis is before the Italo-Turkish War. Either Italy does not start the war or they expand an alternate Italo-Turkish War with... Yemen? I don't know what else they could possibly get besides Libya and Dodecanese.
 
The Second Moroccan Crisis is before the Italo-Turkish War. Either Italy does not start the war or they expand an alternate Italo-Turkish War with... Yemen? I don't know what else they could possibly get besides Libya and Dodecanese.

Italy really made its push for Libya (and got the Great Power thumbs-up) due to demanding compensation for the change in the status quo in North Africa following the French aqusition of Morocco. In this circumstances, and the fact they desired Tunis more, I think its far more likely they honor their alliance with the Germans and Austrians with hopes of gaining Tunisia and Djibouti from France in order to have those two more economically and strategically valuble "chokepoint" colonies as opposed to the Libyan sandbox.

I suppose Britain is still joining considering the Germans will force its path true Belgium. I don't know if Italy will join Berlin and Vienna. It may be the same OTL. But... the Balkan Wars are avoided. Or at least delayed. What does Serbia do? Support Russia? Or stay neutral?

The Balkans will be interesting, that's for sure. For one, the Bosnian issue is still alot rawer in terms of humilation to Belgrade, but Serbia would also have to divide her attention between the North and smoldering tensions in Alabnia and Macedonia. King Karl also still have a few good years left in him in Romania, which moderates somewhat leaning towards the Entente, and since they don't yet of Southern Dobruja they would be a checking force on Bulgaria who are in talks to align with Serbia. I think the question is Conrad uses the likely tensions to get an excuse to launch his prevenative war on Serbia. If he does, Italy would naturally invoke the terms of the alliance to remand that she be compensated for any change in the Balkan status quo, which (not wanting to give up her own territory), Vienna would likely grant by agreeing to sing off to Italian intervention/gains in Albania. This would draw the Ottomans into the Entente via an "The enemy of my enemies", which would keep the Straits open to commerce if you can push back the Italian navy from the centeral Med.
 
Under Taft the US is very unlikely to want to get involved and will be offering arbitration.
If the timing is right--that is, before a significant TR / Taft split--it's not out of the question that Taft could offer arbitration or better yet, mediation--and as the chairman / arbitrator, former president Roosevelt, based on his experience five years previously ending the Russo-Japanese war. TR is a known quantity, and is trusted / held in esteem in the chancelleries of Europe, so it seems plausible this might succeed.
 
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