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From the conclusion of the Franco-Prussian War to the beginning of the First World War, the primary aims of Germany's foreign policy was to achieve German dominance in Europe and abroad, to challenge or at least impress Britain, and to isolate Germany's ancestral enemy, France.

Originally Otto von Bismarck had hoped to unite the three right-wing monarchies of Europe (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia) against Republican France but tensions between Austria-Hungary and Russia regarding the Balkans soon broke this up. In OTL Germany decided to side with Austria-Hungary in this split, be it over shared Germanic heritage, contempt for the Slavs, or for German ambitions in the East.

But what if Germany had taken Russia's side in this split? What if grudges from the Franco-Prussian war and centuries of Austro-Prussian rivalry had taken precedence over German suspicion of the Russian bear? I will go so far as to assume that Austria-Hungary, isolate by this move, would have sought alliance with another country spurned by Germany: France. I will also assume that Romania and Greece would have quickly fallen into Germany's camp as a result of this. And as for Turkey, I suspect Russian ambitions in the Caucasus region, as well as resentments over loss of territory in 1878 would drive Turkey into Austria-Hungary's camp and thus away from Germany's.

How might Europe have been shaped by this change? Would the First World War have begun in Sarajevo in 1914 or earlier? What do you think?
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